the 3 layers of logic

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TOCICO 2013 Conference

Three Layers of Logicor

Never say “I Know” when it comes to Thinking

Presented By: Humberto R. Baptista

Date: June 5th, 2013

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TOCICO 2013 Conference

Contents

• Models of reality

• Cause and effect: is it sufficient?

• What else is there to effective models?

• Examples

• Summing up

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MODELS OF REALITYWhy bother?

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What models are good for?

A model (theory) of reality is useful

If and only if:

It helps influencing reality significantly

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CAUSE AND EFFECTNecessary but not sufficient

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Cause and Effect

• Models based on cause and effect are naturally aligned with being useful:

• Also in communicating, examining, perfecting and extending the model.

• (remember also the assumptions behind the causality)

• but…

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WHAT ELSE IS THERE?Expanding our models

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Yes, but

• Usually there is a causality assumption, something that explain WHY if we have the cause then we have the effect.

• What is not covered usually by causality assumptions is:

• Magnitude and Time

• In other words:

If there is C then… Assumption

E exists Why it exists?

(This much of )E exists Why this much of it?

E exists (by then) Why it takes this time?

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In other words

If C then (this much of) E (by this time)

2. Magnitude assumption

1. Causality assumption

3. Temporal assumption

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SOME EXAMPLESThe mechanics

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Stockouts and Sales

MagnitudeTiming

Causality

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Stockouts and Sales (again)

• More succinctly:

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Interlude

• Why bother?

or:

• Should we do it everywhere?

Yes and no:

• Yes for the improvement of the models/skills

• No for focusing, i.e. do it between core cause/main injection and main/foremost desired effect. Or when studying how to accelerate/intensify something.

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Another example: sales twig

Why?Really?

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Why Lousy? Can’t we pick?Why Lousy? Can’t we pick?

What the distributor knows how to sell now?

What the distributor knows how to sell now?

In more detail:

Challenges:

Can’t we minimize the cost of trial? And time? What Parallels?

What substitutes he carries?

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Another example: a Retailer FRT (1/2)

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Another example: a Retailer FRT (2/2)

Which happens

first? Why?

How much? Why?

How much? Why?

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Also: “GC Auditing” process

• How to understand deeply a surprise/mystery*? (*=an effect not predicted by the current model, either existence or magnitude)

• In some cases there are magnitude assumptions not checked/challenged or timing assumptions not checked/challenged.

• By constructing the Transition Tree with these assumptions explicitly stated it is possible to understand the mystery and influence reality even more.

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SUMMING UPImpacts and consequences

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Layers of Logic

• Good causality models are great.

• Can be made even better understanding also magnitude and timing assumptions behind them:

− Reinforces jump from CRT -> FRT and determines the sequence (transition) that maximizes return in the shortest time possible.

− Allows better challenging of causality in order to plan better injections and their impact

− Allow a deeper understanding of transitions in mysteries

− …

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Thank You

• Comments, questions?

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TOCICO 2013 Conference

About Humberto

• Husband and father changing the world one person at a time

• Scientist seeking to apply science to people’s endeavors

• Hunter of hidden assumptions

• Teacher, student and colleague of students

• Believer of values over toolsHumberto.baptista@vectis-solutions.com