the benefits and costs of zero tillage rd&e on the canadian prairies lana awada 19 th icabr...

The Benefits and Costs of Zero Tillage RD&E on the Canadian Prairies

Lana Awada

19th ICABR Conference June 17, 2015

Department of Bioresource PBEUniversity of Saskatchewan

Achieving food security is a significant and increasing challenge as the world population continues to grow proportionally

Global population increases by about 80 million people per year and it is expected to reach about 9.1 billion by the year of 2050

The existing capacity to satisfy food demand for the growing population remains uncertain, because of land degradation (U.N. 2002)

Introduction

Agricultural production must increase by 70% by 2050 (The World Bank, 2012)

Figure 1. Global Land Degradation

Source: UN, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2011

Land Degradation negatively impact crop production through losses in nutrients, water-storage capacity, and soil organic matter (SOM)

Wat

er 2

%

Figure 2. The Canadian Prairies

SOM 2%

SOM 4%

SOM 7%

SOM 1%-10%

Land degradation on the Prairies has been recognized as problem by scientists for more than a century

• Soil erosion (wind, water, and tillage erosion)• Soil organic matter depletion• Soil salinity

Prairie Arable land 32 Mha

Land Degradation on the Prairies

In the 1930s, the Prairies experienced a period of severe drought and a number of dust storms: Dirty Thirties or Dust Bowl

High winds moved millions of tonnes of topsoil from fields, resulting in soil degradation

Dust Bowl Soil Erosion

The major cause of land degradation is traditional/conventional tillage combined with the predominant practice of summerfallow

Traditional tillage requires multiple cultivations for weed control during the summerfallow season and for seedbed preparation

Cause of Land Degradation

Conservation Tillage (CT)

CT is defined as a sustainable crop production system that

• Leaves at least 30% of crop residue on the soil surface after crop planting to protect soil from erosion

• Uses specialized seeding equipment to place seed and fertilizer in the soil with minimal disturbance

• Controls weeds by herbicides or by minimal cultivation and herbicides

• Uses crop rotations to break the life cycles of pests and diseases and help in controlling weeds

The alternative to traditional tillage – conservation tillage (CT)• Minimum or mulch tillage • Zero tillage

CT is an innovation package: new management practice; herbicide; seeding equipment; and crop varieties

The development of CT involved farmers, engineers, scientists, and farmer organisations who formally and informally worked together for a period of more than five decades

By the end of the 1970s, CT started to take shape on the Prairies

• In 1974, Monsanto Company introduced Roundup, but at a very high price

• Between the 1970s and 1980s, introduction of new varieties of oilseeds and pulses that can use in rotation with cereal and replace summerfallow

• The introduction of CT seeding equipment: e.g., Haybuster 1206 grain and fertilizer drill and Versatile Noble 2000 seed drill

The Development of CT on the Prairies

For a number of economic, technical, political and social factors, the adoption of CT did not occur on any major scale before the 1990s

• Saskatchewan farm implement developed and manufactured of air-seeders

• The price of herbicide Roundup went down

• The price of fuel went up

• It was well established that CT systems resolved the many shortcomings of TT

The Adoption of CT on the Prairies

Air Seeder

Table 1: RD&E Expenditure on Zero Tillage Projects 1960-2009 ($2014)

Figure 3. Tillage Systems Trends in the Canadian Prairies (1981-2011)

Today, more than 75% of the Prairie’s cropland is under some form of CT with more than 60% under ZT

Objectives

Estimate the benefits of ZT adoption 1985-2012

Use benefit cost analysis to evaluate the returns to public and private investments in zero tillage RD&E

The Benefits of ZT Adoption

ZT Benefits

Onsite Benefits of ZT

Offsite Benefits of ZT

Short-run Long-run

The Onsite Benefits of ZT Adoption

Machinery Operations Labour Cost

Fuel Cost

Yield increase

Summerfallow

HerbicideShort Term Impact

Water use Efficiency

Machinery Cost

Herbicide Cost

1991 1996 2001 2006 20110

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

Total wheat Canola Pulses summerfallow

Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture 1991-2011

Mil

lion

Hec

tare

s

Figure 4. Trends in Agricultural Land Use on the Canadian Prairies 1991–2011

Soil quality

Soil Organic matter (Nitrogen)

Soil erosion

Soil SalinityLong Term Benefits

The Onsite Benefits of ZT Adoption

Figure 5. Soil Erosion Risk on the Canadian Prairies (1981–2006)

Figure 6. Soil Salinization Risk on the Canadian Prairies (1981–2006)

Figure 7. Soil Organic Carbon Change on the Canadian Prairies (1981–2006)

Offsite Benefits of ZT Adoption

Reduce Carbon Dioxide (CO2): • Reduction in soil organic carbon oxidation caused

by the disturbance of soils(The low soil disturbance, ZT, has carbon sequestration potential through storing the organic matter in the soil)

• Reduction in carbon oxidation generated from machinery operations to prepare land for cropping

Reduce Nitrous Oxide (N2O)• The deep banding of N fertilizer under ZT

improves fertilizer use efficiency and reduces gaseous N losses, which in turn reduces N2O emissions into the atmosphere

Prairie Crop Energy Model (PCEM): divide Prairies arable land into 22 districts

In each district land is allocated to 122 cropping activities

The model develops a production vector that defines crop yield, input use and environmental outcomes

Quantify ZT Benefits

Table 2. BENEFITS FROM ZERO TILLAGE ADOPTION ON THE PRAIRIES 1985-2012

Variables Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Total Prairies %

ESTIMATES OF BENEFIT / COST OF ZERO TILLAGE RD&E

Employing a counterfactual framework

• Assume in the absence of RD&E investments, the development of ZT technology would have occurred, but would have been delayed by five years

• This delay would reduce the benefit received from adoption

• This counterfactual forgone benefit is used as a proxy for the benefit from RD&E investments in ZT projects

Table 3. 2014 Present Value of Benefits from Zero Tillage RD&E Prairies 1985-2012

Table 4. Benefit Cost Ratios for Zero Tillage RD&E

The return to ZT research is the highest payback for any agricultural R&D on the Prairies

Conclusion

The results show that total estimated benefits derived from the adoption of ZT are equal to $24.4 billion: $23.4 billion worth of onsite benefits and $997 million worth of offsite benefits

These large onsite benefits help explain the increased incentive of famers to adopt ZT on the Prairies

The high benefits of ZT provide farmers with opportunities to gain a competitive advantage in local and international markets by producing high yielding crop varieties at lower costs, while improving the environmental sustainability of agriculture

Although the offsite benefits are not currently recognized by the market place the contribution of ZT in the reduction of GHG emissions will help Canada meet its commitment under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce GHG emissions by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020

The return to the agricultural sector is $109 on every $1 invested in research by the public sector

The return to the agricultural sector is $61 on every $1 invested in research by the public and private sectors

Farmers capture most of the ZT research benefits

Our findings of very high rates of return highlight the need to introduce policies that will support and foster sustainable innovation in complex farming systems

Conclusion

Questions

Thank You

The future vitality of the ZT system depends on the ability to solve problems of continual evolution of agro-ecological issues

Future research examining the returns might examine the distributional impacts of ZT R&D on the private sector input suppliers, including machinery, fuel, chemical, and seed suppliers

As the adoption of ZT has freed up labour time for use elsewhere, future research might examine the impact of ZT in generating off-farm benefits for farmers

Future Research

Factors Affecting the Adoption of Zero Tillage on the Prairies

significantly and positively influence the adoption of ZT

Results of empirical work indicated (Awada, 2012):

• neighbourhood effect• fuel/Glyphosate price ratio• education• farm ownership• Large farm size• high soil erosion risk class • Humid soil type• Short distance to research station• Provincial dummy • Time dummy

• age • off-farm employment found to be insignificant