the effect of changing regional classifications on statistical indicators october 2008, shanghai dr....

The effect of changing regional classifications

on statistical indicators

October 2008, Shanghai

Dr. Udo Maack

Germany

SCORUS Conference 2008

Changing Regional Classifications

1. The role and characteristicsof regional statistical indicators

2. What happens when regional classification changes?

3. Provisions to avoid a false reporting?

• Recalculation procedure

• Regional Classification Server (structure and products)

1. The role and characteristics of regional statistical indicators

Describe real world phenomena

Measure developments in time series

Compare between regions of … – one country – different countries (international)

Values must be normalizede.g. using area or population or (…)

2. What happens when regional classification changes?

Which changes may occur? (I)

Number of Provinces in Turkeybetween 1990 (Census) and 1999

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

Census

19901991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Which changes may occur? (II)

Changes regarding Provinces between census 1990 and 2000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Censu

s- 3

1.12

.199

019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

99

Period

Num

ber

of C

hang

es

.

internal changesnew units

3. Provisions to avoid a false reporting?

(1) Provide a centrally maintained Regional Classification Server (RCS)

(2) Recalculate values and indicators

(3) Force the use of the newest classification on all production steps

Role of a central Regional Classification Server

Report B Report A

GeoCoding GeoCoding Statistical

Production Process A(Population)

Central

RCS

spatial analysis comparison, combination

Statistical Production Process B (Hospital)

FeedbackFeedback

/ Recalculation

/ Recalculation

Role of a central Regional Classification Server

External Data Production

RegionalStatistics DB

RCS

Manually preparedUploading

Uploading

Internal Data Production

MetaDatabase

Solution for the Turkish National Statistical Office TURKSTAT (under development)

External Data Provider

RegionalStatistics DB

Address DB

RCS

Quality assuredWorkflow for Uploading

Data Production

MetaDatabase

National Address DB

Recalculation of Values and Indicators

Basic - Values If surveyed / reported values are

• available, these values have to be aggregated from the original level to regional units according the new territorial division

Indicators must be calculated again from the basis values on all regional level

• not available, the existing values have to be recalculated using weighting factors– of other sources, if available preferred – derived from change of area or population,

which have to be provided in the RCS

Results of the recalculation of values

Basic structure of a RCS (I)

Standard Information: description of regional units with lifetime

Area PopulationToFromIdentifierName

timeLifeUnit

Basic structure of a RCS (I) Example

Basic structure of a RCS (II) Example

Date of change

From-Unit

To-

Unit

Area Popula-tion

Required extension:Change information

Basic structure of a RCS (II) Example

Products of the RCS (I)

• Status Table

• Conc-Moda*) Table [EU required]

• Correspondence Table

*) Conc-Moda: ………………….

Products of the RCS (II)

Status Table

Products of the RCS (III)

Conc-Moda Table

Products of the RCS (IV)

Conc-Moda Table

Products of the RC (V)

Correspondence Table

Recalculation of values

Summary

• The influence of regional changes is significant to statistical values (time series)

• Retrograde data should be adjusted to provide comparable data

• Provisions on data and methods

• Regional Classification Server

• Force all producers to use the RC-Server

Changing regional classifications

Acknowledgements:TURKSTAT (National Statistical Office of Turkey)

Ms. MelikeYildirim Head of Department Publication and Data Dissemination

USST-Project (Upgrading the Statistical System of Turkey; EU-Aid Project) Mr. Ullrich Eichler

Head of the Project Implementation Team

Thank You

Dr. Udo Maack,

Berlin,

Germany

eMail: geoconsultant@udo-maack.eu

Phone: +49 177 405 33 52

Changing regional classifications

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