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The End of Enchainment:Will the Removal of Textile and Clothing

Quotas Bring Us Enchantment?

World Bank Seminar25-26/04/05

Dr. Dean Spinanger

Kiel Institute for World Economicsdspinanger@ifw.uni-kiel.de

I. Introduction and Overview

There are some WTO issues not clarified

.....why not???

Many countries are growing......

at a rate far above many other countries.

But in what areas???

......and how strong???

I. Introduction and Overview

But others threw themselves onto the mercy of free trade.

Unfortunately „free trade“ seems to be interpreted differently around the world.

Often „free trade“ is associated with unfair competition.

That, of course, is BS.....

Introduction and Overview

Free trade means letting in all goods into a country that are sold at a price which reflects production costs.

It does not mean not letting all those goods into a country that are very competitive.

Take a look at what some economies accomplished.

TOTAL EXPORTS BY COUNTRIES/REGIONS (bn $)

10

100

1000

10000

1990 2002 2008

EU CE AF LA US JP CN Rest

EU

Rest of World

US

ChinaAF

CE

LAJP

Log Scale

TOTAL IMPORTS BY COUNTRIES/REGIONS (bn $)

10

100

1000

10000

1990 2002 2008

EU CE AF LA US JP CN Rest

EU

Rest of WorldUS

ChinaAF

CE

LAJP

Log Scale

I. Introduction and Overview

But now with almost all countries in the WTO,

With quotas having been removed on T&C products..,

With other industries being more open.....

What might be happening as a result of all this????

II: WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?

What does the future hold for all those countries after China‘s WTO accession?

I am not a charlatan...but an economist.

There are basic economic principles which tell us what might be..

And these basic economic principles are packed into a cutting edge model.

II: WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?

The model is called GTAP5.......

General Trade Analysis Project version 5.

It‘s robust,

very realistic,

and adaptable to specific needs.

The GTAP5 Model

General equilibrium: multi-sector, with linkages through intermediate inputs and factor markets.

Calibrated : the model is “bench-marked” to baseline scenario in 1997.

Data: GTAP social accounting matrix data.

Policy data: include GTAP tariffs, final WTO accession tariffs for P. R. China & Chinese Taipei, service sector protection, newly calculated quota rents and imputed competitive advantage for China.

The Sectoral Breakdown (23)

Wool Leather Wh-ret-trade

Natural fibers Chem. ref. Transport.

Primary food Steel Commun.

Other primary NF-metals Const.

Sugar Motor veh. Fin-ins-rel.

Proc. food Electronics Consum. serv.

Textiles Other mach. Other serv.

Clothing Manuf. nes

The Regional Breakdown (25)

Hong Kong Other S. Asia Brazil

China, P. R. MERCOSUR

Chinese Taipei Australia Chile

New Zealand Other Lat. America

Japan

Korea Canada European Union

ASEAN5 United States Turkey

Vietnam

Mexico Africa+Mid-East

India CBI Rest of World

Bangladesh ATP

Percent Impact of ATC Phaseout and China’s Accession on Total Exports

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Hong Kong

China (PRC)

Chinese Taipei

Japan

Korea

ASEAN5 c

Vietnam

India

Bangladesh Other South Asia

Australia

New Zealand

Canada

United States

Mexico

Brazil

MERCOSUR, other

European Union (15)

Turkey

Africa, Mid-East

Rest of World

TOTAL ATC

CHINA WTO

III: WHAT IS GOING ON?

But what does all this mean for T&C industries and for importers?

What options are open....and what other countries might serve as a base for production and/or sourcing?

Those who know best are in Hong Kong.

III. WHAT IS GOING ON?

There‘s a saying:

You have to know where you came from in order to know where you might be headed.

In other words:

What are the trends from the past telling us about where we are and might be heading?

WHERE HAVE WE COME FROM & WHITHER?

Trade Growth & Shares* 1965-2010 (%)

Total trade Textiles* Clothing*

1965-73 15.2 14.0 4.3* 20.4 1.4*

1973-80 19.4 13.7 4.0* 20.1 2.0*

1980-90 5.9 6.7 2.8* 10.2 3.1*

1990-95 8.3 7.4 3.0* 7.8 3.2*

1995-10 3.0 -2.2 2.9* 3.7 3.1*

2001-10 6.0 1.0 2.4* 6.0 3.2**Share in total trade in initial year

World Exports in Bill. US$: 1965 - 2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Textile (SITC 65) Clothing (SITC 84) World Trade (right scale)

Bill. US$ Bill. US$

The ATC: Where Are We Now?

Liberalization was a FARCE

Final tranche 2004: only sensitive products

Faking liberalization + finagling protection

Of course, guidelines were not precise

Motto was: Mañana is better than now

ATC Liberalization 1995 - 2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

%

1994 1998 2002 2005

A trap set by past politicians (backloading)Q

uo

ta p

rote

ctio

n

100%

III. WHAT IS GOING ON?

TEXTILE EXPORTS TO WORLDEconomy 90* 90-94 94* 94-03 01*

China (3) 13.1 (2) 5.2 (1)

Germany (1) -2.6 (1) -1.9 (3)

USA (9) 7.0 (8) 6.9 (5)

India (14) 15.1 (12)

5.9 (10)

Turkey (18) 11.1 (15)

8.6 (13)

*Rank in given year. Bold numbers designate above average growth rates.

III. WHAT IS GOING ON?

CLOTHING EXPORTS TO WORLDEconomy 90* 90-94 94* 94-03 03*

China (2) 25.2 (1) 6.4 (1)

Hong Kong (3) 0.5 (3) -0.3 (3)

Mexico (32) 30.5 (21)

24.8 (4)

India (13) 9.8 (11)

7.3 (8)

Bangladesh (33) 25.6 (26)

19.6 (10)

*Rank in given year. Bold numbers designate above average growth rates.

III. WHAT IS GOING ON?

In the time period 90–03 Mexico was beaten by Bangladesh in increasing its share in global clothing market among the top 25 exporters.

But Vietnam came from nowhere to #15,while Mexico climbed just 30 places based on its preferential access to North American markets.

Ranking of Factors Influencing Investment Decisions: 2000

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 50 100

15

13

12

14

10

9

4

87

16

11

17

5

18

36

12

Rank

Coefficient of variation (%)

1 Politics and stability in host country 2 Availability of quotas in host country 3 Quality of transportation infrastructure in host country 4 Quality of telecom infrastructure in host country 5 Policies affecting international trade and investment 6 Labor costs 7 Education and training of workers 8 Policies affecting labor, health and environment 9 Potential for exports to USA

10 Lack of restrictions on capital/profit transactions 11 The "culture" of host country 12 Potential new customers/new markets 13 Potential for exports to EU 14 Host government tax policies/incentives 15 Availability of ready-made factory units 16 Potential for exports to region 17 HKG tax policies 18 Existence of Overseas Chinese Community

Ranking of Factors Influencing Investment Decisions: 2003

1 Labor costs 2 Policies affecting international trade and investment 3 Politics and stability in host country 4 Policies affecting labor, health and environment 5 Quality of transportation infrastructure in host country 6 Lack of restrictions on capital/profit transactions 7 Quality of telecom infrastructure in host country 8 Host government tax policies/incentives 9 Potential for exports to USA

10 The "culture" of host country 11 Education and training of workers 12 Potential new customers/new markets 13 Availability of quotas in host country 14 Potential for exports to EU 15 HKG tax policies 16 Availability of ready-made factory units 17 Potential for exports to region 18 Existence of Overseas Chinese Community

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 50 100

1513

121410

9

4

87

16

11

17

5

18

3

6

1

2

Rank

Coefficient of variation (%)

Average Ranking of Factors Influencing Investment Decisions from 01/2000 and 02/3003

1 Politics and stability in host country 3 Quality of transportation infrastructure in host country 5 Policies affecting international trade and investment 4 Quality of telecom infrastructure in host country 6 Labor costs 8 Policies affecting labor, health and environment 2 Availability of quotas in host country

10 Lack of restrictions on capital/profit transactions 7 Education and training of workers 9 Potential for exports to USA

11 The "culture" of host country 14 Host government tax policies/incentives 12 Potential new customers/new markets 13 Potential for exports to EU 15 Availability of ready-made factory units 17 HKG tax policies 16 Potential for exports to region 18 Existence of Overseas Chinese Community

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 20 40 60

15

121411

9

7

4 10

17

2

16

6

18

5

8

13

13

Rank

Coefficient of variation (%)

III. WHAT IS GOING ON?

These are THE 7 KEY FACTORS to get in shape:

1. Politics and stability;

3. Quality of transport infrastructure;

5. Policies affecting trade and investment;

4. Quality of telecom infrastructure;

6. Labor costs;

8 Policies re. labor, health & environment;

10.Lack of capital/profit transaction restrictions.

Transportation Infrastructure

Telecomm Infrastructure

s

Service Infrastructure

bh

Difficult to Understand Regulations - NTBs

s

III. WHAT IS GOING ON?

The message is clear:

Without coming up to the cut in these areas, T&C exporters will lose out in the battle for market shares now that quotas are eliminated.

And of course with China being a full-fledged member of the WTO since Doha, competition is all the greater.

WHAT‘S GOING ON OUT THERE???

Sweden's Clothing Imports from Selected Regions in Percent of Total Non-OECD Imports plus Portugal, Spain and Greece (1980-2001)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00

Quotas No Quotas Quotas

P,Sp,Gr

E-Asia

SE/Rest Asia

Euro-Med

Euro-East

%

Source: Own calculations based on Swedish import data. Moving 3-year-average.

Sweden's Clothing Imports from Selected Regions in Percent of Total Non-OECD Imports plus Portugal, Spain and Greece (1980-2001)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00

P,SP, GR

SE/Rest Asia

Euro-East

Euro-Med

E-Asia minus China

China

%

Source: Own calculations based on Swedish import data. Moving 3-year-average.

Clothing Imports of Sweden from China, 4 South Asian Countries and EURO-RIM in % of NON-OECD Clothing Imports, 1990-2001

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

China

4 South Asian Countries

%

Euro-East

Euro-Med

Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports,

1990–2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

HKG + China

Sweden United Kingdom

Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports,

1990–2003

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Germany France

Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports,

1990–2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Italy Netherlands

Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports,

1990–2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

United States Canada

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports,

1990–2003

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

Japan Australia + NewZealand *

* 2003 only Australia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

US Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

SITC 65

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

Africa Latin America Africa-Medrim South America Africa-NonMedrim Mexico Central Am. & Carib. excl. Mexico

US Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

SITC 84

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

Africa Latin America Africa-Medrim South America Africa-NonMedrim Mexico Central Am. & Carib. excl. Mexico

Canadian Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

SITC 65

0

1

2

3

4

5

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

0

1

2

3

4

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

Africa Latin America Africa-Medrim South America Africa-NonMedrim Mexico Central Am. & Carib. excl. Mexico

Canadian Textile(SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

SITC 84

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

Africa Latin America Africa-Medrim South America Africa-NonMedrim Mexico Central Am. & Carib. excl. Mexico

EU* Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

SITC 65

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

Africa Latin America Africa-Medrim South America Africa-NonMedrim Mexico Central Am. & Carib. excl. Mexico

* 2003 without Greece, Finland and Sweden

EU* Textile(SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

SITC 84

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

Africa Latin America Africa-Medrim South America Africa-NonMedrim Mexico Central Am. & Carib. excl. Mexico

* 2003 without Greece, Finland and Sweden

Japanese Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

SITC 65 SITC 84

Australian and New Zealand Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America

Source: OECD, ITCS (http://www.sourceoecd.org), own calculations.

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

%

SITC 65 SITC 84

AND WHERE ARE THE DANGERS??

The dangers are clear:

When countries are too, too successful they get hit with NTBs.

This could mean, for instance, antidumping measures (ADMs) or other non-tariff measures (NTMs).

Remember the impct of the dumping measures portrayed earlier.

DANGERS ARE LURKING EVERYWHERE

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

Aver. nr of ADMs/yrAverage

APECTariffRate

(% - left side)

% Tariff rates Nr. ADMs/yr l

TARIFFS DOWN, ADMS UP!!

The Future Is Uncertain

Of course the future is uncertain....but that is life.

However, the large economic model, set up to map future trade and growth after quota removal and China‘s WTO accession (Francois & Spinanger, 2001), shows that China, India, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Vietnam would gain most (%).

But the above 7 factors have to be taken into account here when viewing the results!!!!!

The Future Is Less Uncertain

If the affected economies were to change their policies and rid themselves of outdated baggage, they could perform much better.

Carpe diem, as the Romans said...it is not too late.

ADMs by Initiators and Afflicted: 1/95-12/02

Economy Initiations Afflicted

T&C Total T&C Total

Total 142 2160 142 2160

IEs 45 860 19 610

DEs 97 1300 123 1550

E. EUR 16 68 13 328

L. Amer 23 428 9 173

S. Asia 42 357 19 100

E/SE A. 8 198 75 853

Anti-Dumping Measures (ADMs) Initiated by ICS and DCs: 1985/86 – 2001/02

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

85-86

86-87

87-88

88-89

89-90

90-91

91-92

92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

ADMs/yr

ICs Total

DCc Total

All Economies

Who Hit Whom??

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

85-86

86-87

87-88

88-89

89-90

90-91

91-92

92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

ADMs/yr

ICs against ICs

ICs against DCs

DCs against ICs

DCs against DCs

EU‘s Anti-dumping Measures by Countries/Regions 85-03

Country/

Region

85-90 90-94 94-99 99-03 Total

E. Europe 40 14 23 13 90

CIS 0 20 18 17 55

PRC 0 19 21 20 60

E.Asia-PRC 28 15 20 16 79

SE Asia 1 18 28 13 60

S+W Asia 2 8 21 14 45

Other 43 24 33 23 123

Total 114 118 164 116 512

Source: Own calculations based on GATT/WTO documents.

Ratio of Measures (M) to Initiations (I)

In the following diagrams the ratio of measures enacted to initiations announced over the period 95 – 02 is shown in the caption.

The yearly values of measures enacted has been lagged by one period.

And Which Sectors Were Affected?

Base metals (XV) and chemical products (VI) were by far the most affected areas.

T&C products (XI) were hit by a relatively small number of ADMs, similar to machinery (XVI) but less than plastics (VII).

Other sectors hit were stone, glass/glassware etc (XIII) and agricultural products (I – IV).

However, the ratio of applied measures to initiated proceedings (M/I) was by far the highest for T&C products (72%) showing that economies were more serious about trying to protect the sector.

AD Initiations: By Sector - 01/01/95 to 31/12/02

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

VI

VII

XI

XV

AD Initiations: By Sector - 01/01/95 to 31/12/02

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

I - IV

XIII

XVI

Rest

Ratio of Measures (M) to Initiations (I)

In the following diagrams the ratio of measures enacted to initiations announced over the period 95 – 02 is shown in the caption.

The yearly values of measures enacted has been lagged by one period.

 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

XIII Products of Stone, Glass, etc: M/I = 41%

VII - Plastics and Rubber: M/I = 50%  

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

I – IV Agricultural Products: M/I = 51%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

VI - Chemical & Allied Industries: M/I = 55%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

XVI – Machinery: M/I = 55%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

Rest: M/I = 58%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

XV - Base Metals: M/I = 67%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

XI - Textiles and Clothing: M/I = 72%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Objective:

Basic: Protects Protects (domestic) competition competitors

Actual: Protects Generally domestic no distinction from foreign between domestic & competitors foreign competition

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Initiation:

Actions can only be In addition

initiated by executive private litigants

branch and the can initiate

relevant industry proceedings.

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Administration:

Partly/mostly through Subject to full

executive branch/ supervision

commerce or foreign by courts.

trade ministry; appeals

through courts.

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Standards:

InjuryRequires only Requires „directshowing that unfair causation“ andpractice „contributed“ showing of to material injury reasonable restraintabove so-called of trade orminimum injury substantiallevel (i.e. de minimus) lessening of

competition

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Standards:

PricingRequires no Requires showing evidence predatory intent on intent. re. pricing aimed at

competitors.Does not require Requires showingshowing of selling below-cost pricingbelow cost. and capability of

recoupment.

What Can Be Done????

Boils down to 2 key questions:

DOES PROCESS PRODUCE ALLEGED EVIDENCE??

DOES EVIDENCE PROVE CRIME WAS COMMITTED??

Problem Areas

Determination of dumping (Art. 2)

Determination of injury (Art.3)

Investigation procedures (Art.5 & 6)

Price undertakings (Art. 8)

Imposition/Collection of duties (Art. 9)

Review (Art.11)

Dispute settlement (Art.17)

Conclusions

ADMs are going to increase all the more as liberalization opens up markets.

The DOHA ROUND must do something.

But even if...other NTMS are lurking.

Competition policy is a true alternative, but stands little chance of approval.

Ergo AD rules have to be tightened!!!!!

May the Future Be Brighter...

For sure the ATC must rest in peace after 2004...even if NMS countries have to struggle all the more with restructuring.

All calculations show that - aside from agriculture – the most welfare gains can be made by burying the quotas ASAP.

But what do policymakers/businessmen think about the future of T&C trade?

BIG EU CONFERENCE IN MAY, 2003, ADDRESSED THE ISSUES........

Scope and Thrust of EU ATC Conference

Attended by over 800 participants from 70 countries.

65 speakers from governments, international organizations, industry, unions and academia.

Addressed key challenges facing T&C sectors in post ATC period

Scope and Thrust

Dealt with impact of quota elimination and DDA on ICs, DCs and LDCs.

Looked at implications within RTAs

Discussed promotion of sustainable development and „ethical“ trade.

Debated overall trading rules and their effectiveness.

Specifics: Lamy

Commissioner Lamy said quotas will definitely fall as of 31/12/05.

He didn‘t say that just 15% of the quotas have been removed by the ICs.

Feared that quota elimination might give way to other forms of protection.

Specifics: Supachai

Director General of WTO pointed to the over 80% of the quotas remaining and feared contingent protection.

Between USA, EU and Canada over 1100 quotas will have to be eliminated.

Suggested possible earlier „voluntary liberalization“ to ease logjam as of 31/12/04.

Specifics: Ricupero

Secretary General spoke at length about the benefits of trade liberalization and of missed opportunities in case of T&C products.

He pointed to what the benefits would be for the EU without the quotas, namely €250/year for 4 person household, more with younger kids.

Invited WTO members to find a compromise between competitiveness and solidarity with the weak in which GSP principle would apply.

Specifics: General

Reciprocity issues were emphasized by the EU and US...no favors in advance.

US, EU and Japan can‘t go on providing over 75% of T&C trading opportunities – India, China, Pakistan, Brazil et al must open up.

AD/CV seen by EURATEX & US as ligit to counter NTBs in countries like India and China, whereby China was accused of currency dumping 40%.

Specifics: General

China was seen by many as a problem, coz they are taking too large shares of market.

Developing countries revealed their fears here too, worried also about losing their „quota protected“ market shares.

Developing countries worried about lower tariff rates as a result of liberalization coz it decreases the preferences they receive by the ICs.

Specifics:Final

Reps from Carrefor, Levi Strauss, C&A and Marks and Spencers laid down their successful strategies in taking ethical dimensions into consideration.

All in all it revealed the deep-seated worries of many DCs about how the system will be working against them.

IC reps continued to point out that „All players must abide by the rules.“

AMEN..but what about ADMS and NTBS?

ADMs by Initiators and Afflicted: 1/95-12/02

Economy Initiations Afflicted

T&C Total T&C Total

Total 142 2160 142 2160

IEs 45 860 19 610

DEs 97 1300 123 1550

E. EUR 16 68 13 328

L. Amer 23 428 9 173

S. Asia 42 357 19 100

E/SE A. 8 198 75 853

Anti-Dumping Measures (ADMs) Initiated by ICS and DCs: 1985/86 – 2001/02

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

85-86

86-87

87-88

88-89

89-90

90-91

91-92

92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

ADMs/yr

ICs Total

DCc Total

All Economies

Who Hit Whom??

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

85-86

86-87

87-88

88-89

89-90

90-91

91-92

92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

ADMs/yr

ICs against ICs

ICs against DCs

DCs against ICs

DCs against DCs

EU‘s Anti-dumping Measures by Countries/Regions 85-03

Country/

Region

85-90 90-94 94-99 99-03 Total

E. Europe 40 14 23 13 90

CIS 0 20 18 17 55

PRC 0 19 21 20 60

E.Asia-PRC 28 15 20 16 79

SE Asia 1 18 28 13 60

S+W Asia 2 8 21 14 45

Other 43 24 33 23 123

Total 114 118 164 116 512

Source: Own calculations based on GATT/WTO documents.

Ratio of Measures (M) to Initiations (I)

In the following diagrams the ratio of measures enacted to initiations announced over the period 95 – 02 is shown in the caption.

The yearly values of measures enacted has been lagged by one period.

And Which Sectors Were Affected?

Base metals (XV) and chemical products (VI) were by far the most affected areas.

T&C products (XI) were hit by a relatively small number of ADMs, similar to machinery (XVI) but less than plastics (VII).

Other sectors hit were stone, glass/glassware etc (XIII) and agricultural products (I – IV).

However, the ratio of applied measures to initiated proceedings (M/I) was by far the highest for T&C products (72%) showing that economies were more serious about trying to protect the sector.

AD Initiations: By Sector - 01/01/95 to 31/12/02

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

VI

VII

XI

XV

AD Initiations: By Sector - 01/01/95 to 31/12/02

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

I - IV

XIII

XVI

Rest

Ratio of Measures (M) to Initiations (I)

In the following diagrams the ratio of measures enacted to initiations announced over the period 95 – 02 is shown in the caption.

The yearly values of measures enacted has been lagged by one period.

 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

XIII Products of Stone, Glass, etc: M/I = 41%

VII - Plastics and Rubber: M/I = 50%  

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

I – IV Agricultural Products: M/I = 51%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

VI - Chemical & Allied Industries: M/I = 55%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

XVI – Machinery: M/I = 55%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

Rest: M/I = 58%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

XV - Base Metals: M/I = 67%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

XI - Textiles and Clothing: M/I = 72%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Initiations Measures

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Objective:

Basic: Protects Protects (domestic) competition competitors

Actual: Protects Generally domestic no distinction from foreign between domestic & competitors foreign competition

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Initiation:

Actions can only be In addition

initiated by executive private litigants

branch and the can initiate

relevant industry proceedings.

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Administration:

Partly/mostly through Subject to full

executive branch/ supervision

commerce or foreign by courts.

trade ministry; appeals

through courts.

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Standards:

InjuryRequires only Requires „directshowing that unfair causation“ andpractice „contributed“ showing of to material injury reasonable restraintabove so-called of trade orminimum injury substantiallevel (i.e. de minimus) lessening of

competition

Anti-Dumping vs. Competition Laws

Standards:

PricingRequires no Requires showing evidence predatory intent on intent. re. pricing aimed at

competitors.Does not require Requires showingshowing of selling below-cost pricingbelow cost. and capability of

recoupment.

What Can Be Done????

Boils down to 2 key questions:

DOES PROCESS PRODUCE ALLEGED EVIDENCE??

DOES EVIDENCE PROVE CRIME WAS COMMITTED??

Problem Areas

Determination of dumping (Art. 2)

Determination of injury (Art.3)

Investigation procedures (Art.5 & 6)

Price undertakings (Art. 8)

Imposition/Collection of duties (Art. 9)

Review (Art.11)

Dispute settlement (Art.17)

Conclusions

ADMs are going to increase all the more as liberalization opens up markets.

The DOHA ROUND must do something.

But even if...other NTMS are lurking.

Competition policy is a true alternative, but stands little chance of approval.

Ergo AD rules have to be tightened!!!!!

Summary and Conclusions

Given structure of the ATC a real danger exists that other forms of protectionism will take over after quotas are lifted as of 1/1/05.

This could particularly hit China which is expected to attract much more T&C activities due to competitive advantages beyond what relative prices might predict. Already machinery for T&C sector in China is pouring in.

Textile & Clothing Machinery Exports to Major Regions / Countries 1990 - 2003 – 3 Year Moving Average (US$ Mill.)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 European Union E-Europe + Turkey Africa China Rest Asia Cent.& South America Mexico Rest of World

Concluding Remarks

Will China continue to dominate?

Can NTBs be avoided given current trends?

What role will the time factor (i.e. nearness to market for JIT production) play?

Are there other factors?

What‘s the bottom line?

I Tried to Focus on the Essence...I Hope I succeeded

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