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The Evolution of RiskManagement and Enterprise RiskManagement
Sojung Park
Seoul National University
July 2014
2
The views expressed in the following material are the
author’s and do not necessarily represent the views of
the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP),
its Membership or its Management.
The Evolution of Risk Management: b fbefore 1960s
Insurance and insurance management Insurance and insurance management
Referring New York City,Re err ng ew ork y, “This has only been made possible by insurers. They are the ones who really built this city. With no insurance, there
ld b k N i twould be no sky-scrapers. No investor would finance buildings that one cigarette butt could burn down to the ground.” – Henry Ford g y
The Evolution of Risk Management: 1960s-
From insurance management to RiskFrom insurance management to Risk management – by Robert Mehr and Bob Hedges y g
– Four step risk management Risk identification, risk evaluation, risk management
h i itechnique, monitor
– Risk management technique Risk avoidance risk reduction risk transfer risk Risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk transfer, risk
retention
– Pure risk
3
The Evolution of Risk Management : f l kfinancial risk in 1970s
Exchange rate riskExchange rate risk – End of Bretton Woods agreement in 1972
Commodity price risk Oil shock– Oil shock
Interest rate risk Interest rate risk – Federal Reserve Board (US) policy shift – late
70s70s
Exchange rate riskExchange rate risk
5Source: “The Collapse of the Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System”, Garber (1993)
Oil price riskOil price risk
6
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg#file
Interest rate riskInterest rate risk
1-Year Treasury Bill Yield
12%
14%
8%
10%
2%
4%
6%
0%
2%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
7Source: http://www.crestmontresearch.com/interest‐rates/
Derivative market development- 1980sDerivative market development 1980s
1970s: Black & Scholes option pricing model 1970s: Black & Scholes option pricing model
“Ri k ” ll “Risk management”at wall street
Failures -1990sFailures 1990s
Derivative failuresGibson Greetings– Gibson Greetings
– Proctor and Gamble– Barings Bank– Orange County– Orange County
Model failuresLong Term Capital– Long Term Capital Management
Accounting failuresAccounting failures– Enron– WorldCom– Arthur Andersen
Emerging risks– 2000s and afterEmerging risks 2000s and after
CAT risks CAT risks
Terrorism
E i l i k Environmental risks
Cyber risks
Reputational risks
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Catastrophic events 1970-2012Catastrophic events 1970 2012
11
NamyangNamyang
12
Private information leakagePrivate information leakage
13
S&P 500 firms average time in index ( )(unit :10 years)
10
8
9
5
6
7
3
4
0
1
2
1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018
자료: Richard Forster and Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction, McKinsey & Company 2001
Risk
Insurance Risk Enterprise Risk Management Management Risk
Management
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Enterprise Risk ManagementEnterprise Risk Management
“The process by which organizations in allThe process by which organizations in all industries assess, control, exploit, finance and monitor risks from all sources for theand monitor risks from all sources for the purpose of increasing the organization’s short and long term value to itsshort and long term value to its stakeholders.”
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Traditional approach – Silo approachTraditional approach Silo approach
Hazard riskRi k d f t t d t t – Risk and safety management department
Financial risk– Derivative traders– Chief Financial Officer (CFO)
Operational risk– Line managers
Strategic risk– Chief Executive Officer (CEO), board of directors( ),
ERM – new risk managementERM (Enterprise Risk Management) : Integrate all risks business faces, treat the risk as one risk portfolio, and manage the firm risk.
St Op Fi
Risk RiskRiskRisk
Silo Approach
Strategy
Hazard
Operational
Financial
Integrated
Risk Portfolio
Enterprise Risk ManagementgApproach
Enterprise Risk Management
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Risk and return
Zone 1 Insufficient
Zone 2 Optimal Risk
Zone 3 Excessive
Risk Takingp
Taking Risk Taking
Risk‐Adjusted Return
Risk
19
Accelerator recall in 2009 9
20
Consumer complaints, unintended acceleration per 312,000 hi l ld 2008 MYvehicles sold, 2008 MY
21Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9311_Toyota_vehicle_recallsPlease do not cite.
YouTube video in 2009: YouTube video in 2009:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03m7fmnhO0IO0I
22
23
Operational risk (product defect and recall)
legal charges (the criminal charges! Very unlucky – during the recession) and reputational cost
demand shock (used car price goes down as demand shock (used car price goes down as well)
and.. Hyundai smiles
The result: stock price plummet – over 20 percent within 20 days.
24
Toyota recall
Hyundai
25
http://wwwnpr org/2012/04/18/150502434/r
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http://www.npr.org/2012/04/18/150502434/rough‐patches‐behind‐it‐toyota‐tries‐to‐accelerate
Problems of Silo approachProblems of Silo approach
1 Unclear risk boundaries1. Unclear risk boundaries
– Domino effect, gray risks, multiple categories
2. Risk does add up – portfolio effect ignored (e.g. BHP Billiton) ( g )
3 Difficult communication – different terms3. Difficult communication different terms
4 Inconsistent risk strategies4. Inconsistent risk strategies
27
ERM components
1. Corporate Governance: – RM committee and CRORM committee and CRO
– Set risk appetite
– Build risk culture (e.g. A blaze in AlbuquerqueBuild risk culture (e.g. A blaze in Albuquerque desert in 2000)
2. Business strategy alignment and line gy gmanagement (communication and communication!)
3. Portfolio management
4. Measure – VaR, CFaR, EaR
5. Data and Technology 28
ERM organization example
Board of DirectorsDirectors
CEO
Enterprise Risk Enterprise
Management Committee
Enterprise Risk
Manager (CRO)
Business Unit
Business Unit
Business Unit
Business Unit
Business UnitUnit Unit Unit Unit Unit
ResultsResults
Ericsson lost $2 billion Ericsson lost $2 billion
S k i l b 14% i f h Stock price plummet by 14% in a few hours, 50% in a few days
Nokia market share 27% 30%
Motorola market share 9% 12%
30
Heinrich TriangleHeinrich Triangle
運七技三
“Whatever you do, something unprepared will happen ”will happen.
세월호: The worst crisis of this d ddecade
vs.
33
ERM 6 – Systemic response to risk
Crisis management
– NOT ad-hoc
– Develop best practices and provide guidelines
34
Johnson and Johnson TylenolJohnson and Johnson Tylenol
7 dies from taking Tylenol capsule in 1982 7 dies from taking Tylenol capsule in 1982
Response“How do we protect the people?” How do we protect the people?
“How do we save this product?”
35
“Johnson & Johnson has effectively demonstrated how a major business ought to handle a disaster”
‐The Washington Post October 11, 1982 (first death: September 29, 1982)
37
Does your organization have an integrated ERM program orintegrated ERM program or
equivalent?
38Source: Deloitte Global Risk Management Survey, Sixth Edition (2009)
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