the experience from stockholm city road tax christer johansson lars burman tage jonson bertil...

The experience from Stockholm city road tax

Christer JohanssonLars Burman

Tage Jonson

Bertil ForsbergUmeå university

www.stockholmsforsoket.se

Exceedances of the PM10 limit valueCity of Stockholm

0 5 10 Kilometer 2004-03-01

Miljöavgifternas effekt på halten PM10 år 2005

Kartan visar vägar där PM10-halten beräknasöverskrida miljö-kvalitetsnormen för det 36:e värstadygnet år 2005om miljöavgifter införs.

>50 µg/m3 , haltenöverskrider miljö-kvalitetsnormen

0 1 2 Kilometer 2004-03-01

Miljöavgifternas effekt på halten PM10 år 2005

Kartan visar vägar där PM10-halten beräknasöverskrida miljö-kvalitetsnormen för det 36:e värstadygnet år 2005om miljöavgifter införs.

>50 µg/m3 , haltenöverskrider miljö-kvalitetsnormen

PM10: Stockholm has highest levels in Europe?!

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LONDON

LONDON

LONDON

HELSINKI

GLASGOW

CHARLEROI

LONDON

MÏNCHEN

MÏNCHEN

ZÜRICH

BREMEN

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PRAHA

LONDON

DARMSTADT

BERLIN

ZÜRICH

PRAHA

BERLIN

MADRID

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ROSLAGSVÄGEN

BERLIN

MADRID

E4 SOLLENTUNA

MADRID

BRATISLAVA

LISBOA

VALHALLAVÄGEN

PRAHA

PRAHA

PRAHA

PRAHA

MADRID

NORRLANDSG

PESCARA

ESSINGELEDEN

MADRID

SVEAVÄGEN

HORNSGATAN

UG/M3

PM10 90-percentil

AirBase:>700 sites19 countriesCAFE-PM, 2003

Stockholm trial goals

• Number of vehicle passages to the inner city should decrease by 10%-15% (morning and evening rush hours)

• Traffic flows should improve

• People residing or staying in the inner city should experience improved environment

• Emissions of NOx, CO2 and PM should be reduced

Tax for driving in the inner city area

2 km10

Toll stations

TAXES

Evaluation steps

Traffic change & emissions

Air quality

Environment quality standards 2006

Exposure & health effects

Long term exposure if the trial is permanented

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Meteorology

Air quality

Calculations

Measurements

Substantial decline in traffic

-22 % = -100 000 passages

Inner city:15 % less total vehicle kms

Goal was achieved!

Increased traffic onhighway connecting north – south & tunnel connecting east – west

Mean diurnal cycle in traffic flowwith and without tax

Results – Emissions

Decrease in city centre 2006:

tonnes/

year%

Nitrogen oxides, NOx 45 -8,5

Carbon monoxide, CO 670 -14

Particles, PM10 total 21 -13

” wear particles 19 -13

” exhaust particles 1,8 -12

Hydrocarbons, VOC 110 -14

” benzene 3,4 -14

Carbon dioxide, CO2 38 000 -13

ZoneTidsperiod Pb Llb Tlb Buss Totalt

06-09 -19,1 -17,4 -4,5 34,8 -17,409-15 -18,9 -12,3 -8,8 17,3 -16,915-18 -18,8 -19,3 -6,9 21,3 -17,818-06 -10,9 -13,5 -10,7 7,1 -10,700-24 -16,5 -15,0 -7,8 18,4 -15,5

Skillnad i %

Goal was achieved!

Better air quality – particles, PM10

ca 0,5 % increase

Street level, city centre 4-8 % decrease

Roof level, city centre ca 2 % decrease

Better air quality – exhaust particles

Street level, city centre 5-10 % decrease

Roof level, city centre 5-6 % decrease

ca 1 % increase

Better air quality – nitrogen oxides, NOx

Street level, city centre 5-10 % decrease

ca 1 % increase

Roof level, city centre ca 6 % decrease

Limit values for PM10 and NO2?

0 5 10 Kilometer 2004-03-01

Miljöavgifternas effekt på halten PM10 år 2005

Kartan visar vägar där PM10-halten beräknasöverskrida miljö-kvalitetsnormen för det 36:e värstadygnet år 2005om miljöavgifter införs.

>50 µg/m3 , haltenöverskrider miljö-kvalitetsnormen

0 1 2 Kilometer 2004-03-01

Miljöavgifternas effekt på halten PM10 år 2005

Kartan visar vägar där PM10-halten beräknasöverskrida miljö-kvalitetsnormen för det 36:e värstadygnet år 2005om miljöavgifter införs.

>50 µg/m3 , haltenöverskrider miljö-kvalitetsnormen

PM10

Comparison w EU-directive

STILL EXCEEDED

NO2

Comparison w EU-directive

STILL EXCEEDED

Exposure calculations

• Living address, 2003»Daytime pop have minor impact on

mortality effects

• 100 meter resolution (35x35 km area)

• As if permanent system

• Long term exposure - mortality

Small changes in population meanconcentrations

Expected health effects

• Exposure- response relations

• Consistent ER factors for mortality:– Holland, New Zeeland, France:

12%, 13%, 14 % increase per 10 ug/m3 NO2

– Norway (Oslo)8 % increased mortality per 10 ug/m3 NOx

ACS

Long term mortality effects if Stockholm trials are permanented

• Reduced exposure based on population weighted decrease of NOx concentrations– Decrease of 0,23 ug/m3

– Expected to give 25 – 30 fewer premature deaths per year

Cost benefit surplus

• Cost: SEK 2.6 billion

• Annual surplus: SEK 760 million• Shorter travel times (SEK 600 mill)• Increased road safety (SEK 125 mill)• Health & Environment (SEK 90 mill)• Revenues (SEK 550 mill)

• 4 years payback time

Measurements– NO2– NOx– PM10

• Meteorol.

• Traffic• Other

– Studs – Road wetness

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Not possible to measure impact of congestion charge on air quality

Lower PM10 due to meteorology

PM10 levels2003, 2004, 2005, 2006

NOx levels 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006

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Measured local street contributionsSVEAVÄGENHORNSGATAN

Extra dieselbuses

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Trafik, SveavägenTRAFIK TRAFIK

Big impact of congestion taxCompare with other measures

• Reducing studded tires from 70% to 60%– would give similar reduction in PM10 as congestion

tax– But: Congestion tax also reduces ultrafine exhaust

particles

• Increased petrol tax not as effective– Congestion tax reduces levels where most people are

being exposed

• New western/eastern link – Similar reductions in exposure

Other measures• Parking: higher fees/taxes/restrictions

• Possibly similar effects as congestion charge

• Environmental zone• Mainly exhaust emissions• PM10 still a problem

• Dust binding (spring)• Local and short effect on high levels• High PM10 lowered

• Studded tire restrictions• No effect on exhaust particles• PM10 could be met…

Conclusions

• Large traffic reduction

• Lower emissions

• Small effect on concentrations

• Expect big effect on health

• Cost-effective measure