the impact of budget constraints on future defence technology investment · industry analysts in...

Asif Anwar, Advanced defence Systems Service

aanwar@strategyanalytics.com

The impact of budget constraints

on future defence technology investment

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2 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

3

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What’s Happening? What’s Likely to Happen?

• Wireless

• Consumer

• Automotive

• defence

• Telecoms

• Enabling Technologies

Markets

Competitors

Customers

Opportunities

Products

Technology

Costs

3 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

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Devices

Services

Contents

Apps

Apps

Platforms

Systems Devices

Technologies

4 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Defence budgets are being squeezed

Current

Multiple fronts Global economics Conventional and

asymmetric

GWOT

Asymmetric UOR

Cold War

Nationalism “higher, faster, further”

5 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

US defence spending slow down and mirrored globally

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ B

illio

ns

Total Procurement Total RDT&E

Operations & Maintenance Military Personnel

Miltary Construction Military Family Housing

Other

6 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

UK defence spending slowing down by 8%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Baseline 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

GB

P M

illio

n

Resource Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) Capital DEL

7 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Slowdown in defence reflected in industry revenues…

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

$ B

illio

ns

Overall revenues

0 50

BAE Systems

Boeing

EADS

Finmeccanica

General Dynamics

Lockheed Martin

Northrop Grumman

Raytheon

Thales

$ Billions

2010

2009

2008

8 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

…and stock market performance

9 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Defining global conflict scenarios

Hybrid

Technology is the

differentiator

10 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

What does this mean for defence platforms?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

US DoD Budget Air Platform Expenditure

Fighter Aircraft Other Aircraft UAVs

11 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Europe is taking a two-pronged approach

12 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Platform mission envelope expands

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ B

illio

n

Communications Electronics Computer Electronics

EW Electronics Radar Electronics

ISR Electronics Other inc. weapons Electronics

13 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Communication systems trends

Battlespace netcentricity

Multi-mode

Multi-band

SDR and cognitive

Data

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20112012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Defence Radio Market

Satcom

Naval

Land

Airborne

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ M

illio

ns

Defence Radio Semiconductor Demand

Other

GaN

Silicon/SiGe

GaAs

14 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Some recent examples from European companies

• Cassidian is developing a solution for IP-based mobile ad-hoc networks (MANET)

• Mobile IP Node • Detect and find available bandwidth and

frequency resources • Create secure communications networks

around UHF, VHF and Satcom resources

• Elektrobit also highlighting its Tactical Wireless IP Network

• Utilize MIMO • Roadmap towards higher bandwidth and

cognitive radios

15 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

EW systems trends

Wideband

Sensitivity

Power

Selectivity

Processing

Receive Channel

Receive Channel

Digital P

rocessin

g Transmit Channel

Transmit Channel

Wideband receiver

Digital Processing ADC

RF in

16 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Radar system trends

Parabolic reflectors and flat plate planar array

Passive electronically scanned array

Active electronically scanned array

17 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

European suppliers extending AESA radar beyond the fast-jet

• Cassidian recently launched the TRS-4D surveillance and target multifunction naval radar

• AESA radar combined with mechanical rotation in azimuth

• Using GaN transmit modules

• BAE Systems has developed a suite of AESA radars • Naval, Sampson • Air defence (naval platforms),

ARTISAN • Land radar, EWACS

• Technology utilizing GaAs T/R modules

18 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

GaAs Power Device

Thermal Limit

GaAs Power Device

Theoretical Limit InP Power Device

Theoretical Limit

GaN Power Device

Theoretical Limit

Vacuum Tube

Regime

GaN Power Device

Thermal Limit

?

What are the enabling technologies?

SiGe Power Device

Theoretical Limit

19 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

Conclusions

• Budgets and systems – SWaP-C

– Emphasis on cheaper, faster, better

– Upgrading capabilities

• Common requirements from electronics systems – Broadband

– Power

– Linearity

– Digitization

• Opportunities for broad range of technologies – Complementary

20 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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For further information on this analysis or other research, see https://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=saservice&a0=96&m=5#0

Asif Anwar, aanwar@strategyanalytics.com , +44 1908 423635

Stephen Entwistle, sentwistle@strategyanalytics.com, +44 1908 423636

Mark Holden, mholden@strategyanalytics.com , +44 1908 423602

Serge Rozenblum, srozenblum@strategyanalytics.com , +33 1 53 40 99 51

Hakan Gustafsson, hgustafsson@strategyanalytics.com, +49 89 51 51 35 35

2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,

October 12th, 2011

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