the state of the energy transition …...1 introduction of institute for sustainable energy policies...

2010 4th International Solar Cities Initiative World Congress

Hironao MATSUBARA

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

Tokyo, Japan

http://www.isep.or.jp/

Japan-India Climate Policy Research Workshop 2018Date: 26th – 27th July, 2018

Venue: TERI Seminar Hall, New Delhi, 110003, India

THE STATE OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY

IN JAPAN

1

Introduction of Institute for Sustainable Energy PoliciesAn independent nonprofit policy think-tank (Environmental NGO) aiming at the realization of sustainable energy policy mainly engaged in the rationalization of natural energy, energy saving, and energy market. Founded in 2000.

http://www.isep.or.jp/en/

Trends of Power Generation in Japan

2Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

Source data: METI, etc.Graph: ISEP

• Ratio of renewable energy is 10% which remained unchanged for the past two decades

• Ratio of renewable energy power generation increased to 14.8% in FY2016.

Fukushima.3.11

Trends of Renewable Power Generation in Japan

3

9.8%

10.5%10.1% 11.0%

12.5%14.5%

Share of renewable energy power generation increased to 14.8% in FY2016.

4.8%0.6%0.2%1.7%1.7%5.8%

Source: METI, ISEP(Renewables Japan Status Report)

1.7%

14.8%

Share of Power Generation in Japan (2017)

4Source: Estimated by ISEP using METI data

• Share of Renewable Energy reaches almost 15.6% of power generation in Japan• VRE share is 6.2%(Solar PV 5.7%) of annual power generation in 2017

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Trends of Renewable Energy Capacity in JapanTrends of Renewable Energy Capacity in Japan(excluding large hydro): 50GW(FY2016)

*Small Hydro: under 10MW*Biomass: excluding black liquor and co-firing with coal

Source: Renewables Japan Status Report (ISEP)Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

Trends of Solar PV capacity in TOP7 countries

6Source: IRENA data

48.6GW

42.4GW

19.7GW

41.1GW

130.6GW

19.0GW

12.8GW

• In China, Total capacity of PV reached 130GW by end of 2017.• Japan exceeded Germany in total capacity of PV by end of 2016.• Annual installation of PV was 53GW in China, more than 9GW in India.

Movie”Renewable Japan” – The Search for New Energy ParadigmFebruary 2017

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中国 中国

Movie Director:Hiroyuki KAWAI

Superviser:Tetsunari IIDA

Music:Takashi NIIGAKI

Ending Music:Ryuichi SAKAMOTO

Source: http://www.nihontogenpatsu.com/

• Expanded introduction of Solar PV in Japan and Germany• Since 2013, trend of additional capacity is dramatically changed in Japan and Germany.

Source data: IRENA data

Trends of Solar PV in Japan and Germany

Institute for Sustainable Energy PoliciesGraph: ISEP

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201642GW

202066GW

2030100GW

JPEA PV OUTLOOK 2050

Certified PVOver 75GW(March 2017)

2050200GW

Topics: “Solar Sharing” Solar PV for Agriculture in Japan

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• In 2013, MAFF approved the installation of solar PV system on agricultural land• About thousand installation site of “solar sharing” in Japan• Promoting agriculture balancing solar power generation business

Reference URL: https://medium.com/thebeammagazine/solar-sharing-for-the-future-generation-the-story-of-iitate-electric-power-in-fukushima-c28efd5d7e41

Fukushima Aizu Kitakata(Aizu Power)Rice farm with 50kW PV

Chiba (Sousa Mega Solar Sharing)Soya farm with 1MW PV

Economical effects of FIT scheme in Japan

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発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者発電事業者Power

ProducersElectricUtilitiesElectricity

Tariffs for electricity

Financial Institution

CapacityInvestment

PriorityAccess

Renewables(PV,Wind,Geothermal,Hydro,Biomass)

Home(Regulated)

Company(Office,

Industries,Etc.)

Electricity

Electricity Price(Surcharge)

Estimationfor FY2016

2.25 JPY/kWh

57TWh 800TWh

employment：310,000(IRENA)

Renewable Share：9%(excluding large hydro)

Investment(2016)：16Billion USD(Total investment for clean energy in Japan) estimated by UNEP Source Data: METI, Estimation by ISEP

Electric Consumer

2300B JPY 1800B JPY

Power Facility

Investment,Loan

April,2016 – March,2017

Avoidable Cost:500B JPY

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

Trend of wind capacity in the world

11Source: GWEC(Global Wind Energy Council)

Trends of Wind power capacity in Japan• After FY2011, annual installed capacity keeps very low level because of several

regulation.

• Pipeline of environmental assessment is over 15GW including certified wind capacity is over 6GW

12Source: JWPA(Japan Wind Power Association) and ISEP

2020Onshore：10GWOffshore：0.7GW

2030Onshore：27GWOffshore：10GW

JWPAWind Roadmap

2050Onshore：38GWOffshore：37GW

Energy Transition after Fukushima Nuclear Accident in Japan

13Source: ISEP “Renewables 2016 Japan Status Report”

Decoupling started ?

FY

Comparative Studies on Socially Equitable Energy Transition in Asia*Status of Renewable Energy in Asian Countries

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Country RE Target(Electricity)

RE Share(Electricity)

PV[GW]

Wind[GW]

Biomass[GW]

Geo[GW]

Hydro[GW](Pumped)

Total[GW]

Japan 22-24%(2030)

15%(2016) 42 3 4 0.5 49(27) 146

China 27%(2020) 26%(2016) 78 149 12 0.03 334(27) 1372Korea 6%(2020)

10%(2024)20%(2030)

5%(2016) 5 1 2 0 6(5) 16

Phillippines 40%(2020) 29% 0.8 0.4 0.5 2 4(1) 7Thailand 20%(2036) 13% 2 0.5 3 0 4(1) 9Indonesia 26%(2025) 0.1 0.01 2 2 5 31Vietnam 5%(2020) 0.01 0.2 0.3 0 18 18India 40%(2030) 16%(2016) 10 29 9 0 48(5) 210Total(Asia) 138 183 33 5 468(66)World 25%(2015) 291 467 109 13 1245

(160)2008

Source：Miranda Schreurs and IRENA “Renewable Energy Statistics 2017”* This study is supported by Friedrich Ebert Foundation(2017)

Share trends and Policy target of renewable energy

15Source：NREAP, EurObserv’ER, ISEP

■EU directive causes renewable energy target of 2020 based on NREAP for each country in EU■2030 energy mix of renewable energy in Japan is 22 – 24%, which corresponds to recent RE share of EU countries.

Share comparison of renewable energy power generation

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Source: EurObserv’ER, etc.* VRE(Variable Renewable Energy)

Share of renewable energy power generation in European countries are greater than Japan.

Electrical System Reform in Japan:Inter-regional grid connection between region of large utilities in Japan

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Hokkaido

4.5GW

Tohoku

13.3GW

Tokyo(Kanto)

54.4GW

Hokuriku

5.3GW

Chubu

26.7GW

Kansai

29.2GW

Chugoku

11.3GW

Kyusyu

16.5GW

Shikoku

5.5GW

Okinawa(Isolated)1.5GW

0.6GW

12.6GW

1.2GW5.6GW1.4GW

0.3GW5.6GW16.7GW

2.4GW

5.6GW

Region(Utility)Peak

Demand(GW)

GWInter-regional grid Capacity (Physical)

Source data: ESCJ

As of FY2014

60Hz(West)

50Hz(East)

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

Electrical System Reform:-OCCTO and EGC start in FY2015-Full Electricity Liberalization since FY2016-Unbundling until 2020

Results of FIT scheme (As of March 2017)Operating Renewable power capacity in each utility

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Source data: METIGraph: ISEP Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

In kyusyu, operating renewable power capacity reaches 47 % of peak demand.

As of March 2017

Energy transition by Variable Renewable Energy

19Source:REN21,IRENA,IEA” Renewable Energy Policies in a Time of Transition”

Share of VRE(Variable RE)2016

Japan 5%Kyushu 9%

Denmark45%

India 3%

Large Share of variable renewable energy in JapanSingle-day Supply and Demand in Kyushu area (May 14th, 2017)

20Source: ISEP using Kyushu Electric Company

May 14th, 2017RE peak: 86.9%VRE peak: 71.9%Solar peak: 71.5% Total 10 utilities: April 30th, 2017

RE52%(Solar 38%,Hydro 12%,Geo 0.3%, Wind1%, Biomass 0.4%)

Holiday, April 30th, 2017Daily Share of RE：28%

Sunday, May 14th, 2017Daily Share of RE：39%

Kyushu Area

Sustainable Zone: Indicator for Sustainability of region in Japan

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Energy Sustainable Zone (ESZ) is an indicator to identify areas where local production of renewable energy exceeds local consumption of energy by residential and service sector.

Prefectures

Ranking of Electricity RE Share(FY2016)Estimated by ISEP and Kurasaka Lab. Chiba Univ.

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

RE Share = Renewable Power Supply(excluding Large Hydro)Electricity Demand(excluding industries)

Source: Sustainable Zone Study Grouphttp://www.sustainable-zone.org

135 towns and villages over 100% Renewable Energyin Electricity

83 towns and villagesover 100% Sustainable Zone(100% renewables region)

Renewable Energy 100% Vision of Fukushima Pref.Comarison of Regional economy effects

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3.3 trillion JPY

Cumulative regional economy until FY2040 after FIT started

1.6 trillion JPY

Source：Matsubara, et.al., SEEPS 2015

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Network of Community Power in Japan

Source：data of ISEP, People’s Power Network, Kiko Network

Activities of Community Power in Japan

http://www.wcpc2016.jp/en/

As of Oct. 2016

“Fukushima Community Power Declaration”

Three Principles of Community Power

Ownership

Governance

Benefit sharing

The 2nd World Community Power Conference will be held in Mali, Africa, 2018

The 1st World Community Power Conference, 2016Japan Community Power Association

(JCPA) Established in 2014

Japan Communitypower Association(JCPA)

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Network of organizations and key persons working on community-led renewable energy projects. Established in May 2014, in an effort to reorganize the "Community Power Initiative" (established in June 2013).Under the mission of promoting community-led renewable energy development in collaboration to realize a sustainable local community, the organization is sharing information and experience, policy research and recommendations, capacity building, business support, and so on.

Activities:• Information sharing: shared knowledge base• Networking: symposiums, lectures in each

region• Collaborative business development ,

business support• Policy research and recommendations

JCPA Home Page：http://www.communitypower.jp

Symposium in Aizu, Fukushima(Aug. 2014)

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Community power: Aizu Electric Power Company

Solar PV: 5MW(70 sites)

CEO: Yauemon Sato

Source: https://aipower.co.jp/companysummary

Conclusions towards 100% renewable energy in Japan

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• Community-power based (Locally-owned) development of sustainable renewable energy• Policy to develop power system infrastructure and renewable energy heating and transport• Learning advanced region and case of renewable energy 100% regions and companies• Making Vision and Target towards 100% renewable energy

http://there100.org/companies

Source：deENet(IdE, Germany)http://100ee.deenet.org

http://www.go100re.net/Global 100% Renewable Energy Platform

Domestic Campaign in Japanhttp://go100re.jp/

Renewable Energy 100% Region

Sustainable Zone