the strength of american communities - kathleen bostjancic

A TALE OF 2,000 CITIESThe US economic outlook: The Community Perspective

HOUSEHOLDS BIGGEST ASSET

Housing is the most visible and valuable asset for US households. It is a great measuring stick for the strength of the American communities.

A LARGE PROPORTION OF HOUSING WEALTH

is concentrated in a relatively small proportion of America’s cities and towns. Of the 2,200 we analyzed, the top 10 percent ranked by the aggregate value of their owner-occupied homes held 52 percent ($4.4 trillion) of the total housing wealth. The bottom 40 percent held just 8 percent ($700 billion).

AMERICA IS DIVIDED INTO NINE DIFFERENT COMMUNITY TYPES,

ranging from the successful — the “Affluent Metroburbs” — to the genuinely troubled — Endangered Communities.” Our analysis suggests that approximately 50% of the American communities we studied are struggling to find their way forward after the Great Recession.

DOUBLE-DIGIT INCREASES

in U.S. home prices over the past two years are not indicative of future trends. They were largely driven by investors buying up swaths of distressed homes to meet growing rental demand.

OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

prices will grow at a much slower rate. We forecast existing single-family median home prices to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent between 2015 and 2018 as supply and demand move into a sustained equilibrium.

THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS

among all 50 states and the largest 50 metropolitan areas in the next five years. Price rises will be more than three times greater in the strongest markets than in the weakest ones.

THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES

for government and business leaders to support and amplify success stories from the most vibrant communities, and to consider interventions to strengthen struggling communities.