the transition movement from oil dependency to local resilience event, location date name transition...
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The Transition MovementFrom Oil Dependency to Local Resilience
Event, locationDate
NameTransition Network
Agenda Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change Economic contraction PO + CC + EC ≠ “business as usual” Responses at different levels
global, national, local, personal What is a transition town Examples and achievements so far Q&A discussion-------------------- RESILIENCE
Peak Oil
we’ll never “run out” of oil
we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil
oil underpins– industrial development
– agriculture
– economics
– population
about ½ way through it…
it’s going to decline
Peak Oil – a theory?
98 oil producers
Peak Oil – a theory?
Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers
Peak Oil – discovery
US discovery peaked in 1930s production peaked in 1971
UK discovery peaked in 1975 production peaked in 1999
world discovery peaked in 1960s production will peak in 20??
Peak Oil – net energy on the downslope
Peak gas for UK
Source – National Grid
UK energy balance 1965 - 2010
Peak Oil vs Peak Exports
Oil producers getting richer
Developing their own economies Middle East growth: 5-6% pa
Russia growth: 7% pa
Increasing their domestic
consumption of oil fuelled by subsidised prices
Less available for countries
they export to. Like us …
Peak Oil – what’s it like?
terminal decline
demand destruction
examples: 1990s: North Korea
1990s: Cuba
2000: UK fuel crisis
Now: Poor countries
Climate Change – the end of the debate
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations
The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:
Upsala Glacier, Argentina
Climate Change – the feedbacks kicking in?
Why the Arctic Matters
Polar Science Center Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington
Peak Oil & Climate Change
What can be done? Global
Oil Depletion Protocol Contraction and Convergence Kyoto
National TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing)
Community Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural
Personal “The work that reconnects” self directed re-education
Peak oil, climate change, food and the Scottish parliament Unanimously passed motion
“…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008)
Transition and Somerset CC (UK) acknowledges [...] that the independence of the Transition
Movement is key to its grass roots appeal.
fully endorses the Transition Town Movement and subscribes to the principles and ethos of the organisation's goals to reduce dependence on fuel oil and create more sustainable communities.
commits to providing support and assistance to all towns in Somerset that wish to join this initiative [...].
[...] allocating funds to assist in achieving the outcomes of the Transition Towns [...] requiring all directorates to support Transition Initiatives
seeks to become the first Transition Authority in the UK.
agrees to undertake a review of its budgets and services to reduce dependence on fuel oil and produce an energy descent action plan in line with the principles of the Transition Initiative.
(Motion unanimously pass by Somerset County Council in July 2008)
Monteveglio council, Italy Oil and fossil fuel depletion is this administration’s priority, to be
implemented through an Energy Descent Plan to turn Monteveglio into a “Post Carbon” City.
Strategic partnership with the Association Monteveglio Città di Transizione [Transition Town Monteveglio] with whom this administration shares:
a view of the future (the depletion of energy resources and the significance of a limit to economic development)
methods (bottom-up community participation)
objectives (to make our community more resilient, i.e. better prepared to face a low energy future)
an optimistic approach (although the times are hard, changes to come will include great opportunities to improve the whole community’s quality of life).
Begin a participative and institutional process to promote Monteveglio as a Transition Town, with the direct participation of the whole community and a final statement by the City Council.
Define CO2 emission measurement tools and containment policies well beyond EU targets and in line with the global objective of 350 ppm.
excerpt from Monteveglio “Decree”
Can we respond?
Going up the energy slope, we used– ingenuity– creativity– adaptability– cooperation
Going back down…– if we’re early enough– if we’re cooperative– the future could be a
whole lot better…
What’s stopping us? (1) Dominant myths of today
Things are getting better Tomorrow will be like today, but bigger and shinier Economic growth is good We must keep shopping Technology will solve all our problems There is no alternative You can’t stop progress Living standards are rising Humans are selfish and greedy by nature The market will solve it We’re all doomed…
What are our stories for the future?
Indu
stri
al A
scen
t
• Energy use• Resource use• Environmental degradation• Pollution
Peak Energy
?
Techno-Fantasy
Green-Tech
StabilityGreen-Tech
Stability
Earth
stewardshipPost Mad Max Collapse
Great Grand Children
Agriculture10.000yrs BP
Industrial Revolution
Baby Boom
Pre-industrial culture
Historical Time
Future Time
Creative D
escent
(Perm
aculture)
Changing the myth from…
Changing the myth from…
What’s stopping us? (2)
Cognitive Overload Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinking
– rational vs emotional– neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian
Belief in authority figures– electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose– obedient children survive
Sunk cost, or investment in the present– “it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job
depends on him not believing it” Optimism
– an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling
Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Americas)
Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Aus/NZ)
Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Europe and beyond)
Who’s designing creative, positive energy descent? (UK and Ireland)
How are they organising?
Transition Model Understands:
PO + CC + £â ≠ “Business as usual” Adaptable, creative Start now
7 Buts “ingredients”
Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1)
I’d get involved, but...
1) we don’t have funding
2) “they” won’t let us
3) turf wars with other green groups
Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2)
I’d get involved, but...
4) no one cares about the environment
5) it’s too late anyway
6) I don’t have the right qualifications
7) I don’t have the energy for it
The Transition Response
Transition Model - Step 1
Set up an initiating group and design its transformation from the outset
atrophy personal agendas humility stages 2-5 reforms from subgroups
Transition Model - Step 2
Awareness raising allies and networks prepare community movies talks events
Transition Model - Step 3
Lay the foundations other groups existing projects official bodies businesses collaboration
Transition Model - Step 4
Organise a Great Unleashing coming of age powerful, passionate, informative,
inspirational timing content making connections
Transition Model - Step 5
Form “working groups” starting new groups bringing in existing groups guidelines training working groups and the
steering group
Transition Model - Step 6
Use “Open Space” shouldn’t work! one long coffee break World Café
Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide
Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future
Transition Model - Step 7
Develop visible practical manifestations of your project
not a talking shop chose carefully lure in fence-sitters team building potential getting dirt under your fingernails
Transition Model - Step 8
Facilitate the Great Reskilling repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft
insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…)
eg WWOOFing
Transition Model - Step 9
Build bridges to Local Government
becomes crucial don’t wait too long… open door Community Development Plan elections…!
Transition Model - Step 10
Honour the Elders elders as a community resource 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil
scarcity to abundance oral history community infrastructure not about going backwards
Transition Model - Step 11
Let it go where it wants to go… focus on the questions unleash the community any sense of control is
illusory
Transition Model - Step 12
Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan
assess current situation create 15-20 year vision for all
key areas integrate with community plan if
possible identify steps needed to get there start the work
What kind of things are they up to…?
loads of awareness raising talks,
movies, discussions
skillsharing
seed sharing
local food directories
local currencies
oral history archives
planting fruit trees
starting up locally owned renewable
energy companies
garden share schemes
energy saving advice for the community
central buying of trees for “city
orchards”
mending courses loads of reskilling events, eg
Dr Bike, composting toilets, reedbeds
working with local schools cutting out plastic bags and
holding workshops on how to make fabric ones out of scraps
getting sustainability books into their libraries
car share schemes community supported
agriculture schemes guerilla gardening permaculture courses
Typical activities
What are they up to…? (UK)
Taken from the May/June 2010 Roundup - a trawl of websites and googlealerts from around the world
Portobello, Scotland - short courses in vegetable growing and raised bed construction
TT Brixton - Master Gardener training course TT Sevenoaks - including a seedling swap, advice on raising
chickens and bees and a food hub New Forest Transition – a new Local Food Market Unleashings in Hebden Bridge, TT Malvern TT Totnes published the EDAP TT Finsbury in London – video workshops TT Halesworth – upcycling (mending) project Portobello – home water checks TT Berkhamstead’s – car free day TT Horncastle – Nappucino event (skillshare re alternatives to “disposable”
nappies)
What are they up to…? (Europe and US)
Taken from the May/June 2010 Roundup - a trawl of websites and googlealerts from around the world
New TT initiative started up in Witzenhausen, Germany Transition Hub starting in Brussels, Belgium New TT initiative started in Heidelberg west, Germany Unleashings in TT Carrboro-Chapel Hill and TT Whatcom in US T San Francisco mulling over a local currency – “bernalbucks” T Kurilpa and the Brisbane Transition Hub had David Holmgren
(permaculture co-founder) at big awareness raising event US TV show called ‘Sustainable Today’ featured David Johnson
and Jim Newcomer speaking about the transition in Portland, Oregon
Transition Tasmania – ‘produce swap’ and no-knead bread skill share TT Blackwood in Oz – seed share event TT Invercargill, New Zealand were given a community garden
Our choice…
We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.
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