the tsunami risk in the mediterranean - auftrag: …€¦ · regional tsunami watch providers...
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Jörn Lauterjung, Ute Münch, Alexander Rudloff& GITEWS Project-Team
The Tsunami Risk in the Mediterranean
GITEWS
Pacifc/Caribian 65% Atlantic/Mediterranean 30% Indian Ocean 5%
Tsunami: Where and how often?
:
H>2m: 23 in 10 yearsH> 8m: 8 in 10 yearsH>32m: 1 in 10 years
Tsunami with casualities:Pacific 79% Indic 7% Atlantic/Mediterranean 14%
Tsunami-Events(2000 a. Chr. – 2004)
n = 3034
65%
5% 30%
Tsunami-Sources (1)
Earthquakes (ca. 88 %)
Only
10-20% of strong
submarine quakes result
in a big
Tsunami!
Unified earthquake catalogue for the Euro-Med Regionfor the last millennium
earthquakeepicenters
Mw 6
Grünthal et al. (2008)
Earthquakes, aftershocks and thermal fluids
Mega-Tsunami
in the
Mediterranean?
1956: M=7.5, H=30 m365 n. Chr.: M=8, H>>30 m
The International UNESCO Framework Regional Tsunami Watch Providers (RTWP)
ICG PacificICG Caribic
ICG Indian Ocean
ICG NEAMTWS
GITEWS Concept
Warning Centre
Capacity Building
Tide Gauge
Buoy
GPS Station
Seismometer
Pressure sensor
Seminar on Early Warning Systems, Aix-en-Provence, Oct. 14, 2008 J. Lauterjung
Tsunami Early Warning & Mitigation Center
-Other national and internationalrecipients
Seismic Monitoring BuoysTide Gauges Ocean Bottom Units EO DataGPS
-Local Authorities-People at Risk
Systems
Observations
Assessment and Decision Support
Observations
Simulation
Seminar on Early Warning Systems, Aix-en-Provence, Oct. 14, 2008 J. Lauterjung
GITEWS
Inauguration of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre
11th of November 2008, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Inauguration of theIndonesian Tsunami Early Warning System by the President
GITEWSInternational Activities
SouthAfrica
Australia
IndonesiaMaledives
Sri LankaYemen
Tanzania
Madagascar
Kenya
Thailand
IndiaPakistan
Mediterranean: Known Facts
• Countries around the Mediterranean have already scientific and monitoring infrastructure.
• This is heterogeneous and shows gaps for Early Warning purposes.
• The infrastructure is not fully real time or based only on one communication channel.
• Important subsystems are still missing or not identified: Continous GPS, Parts of an Oceanographic Network, Modelling, Early Warning Centre Infrastructure, Dissemination Infrastructure
• Some degree of Standardisation is missing (Standard Operation Procedures, SOP).
• Official exchange of real time data is a problem.
Proposed System Layout
• Seismic System (fill gaps)
• Continous GPS System (tbd)
• Oceanographic Observing System (fill gaps) (Tide Gauges, Buoy-Systems, Cable Systems)
• Regional Warning Centre Infrastructure including Communication Infrastructure (tbd)
• Modelling and Simulation (tbd)
• Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (tbd)
• Capacity Building (tbd)
Inst
rum
ents
yste
ms
National Warning Centres
Regional Warning Centre 2
Regional Warning Centre 1
Backup
Data
Transfer
Data
Transfer
Dissemination(Mediterranean)
Dissemination(National)
Infor
mation
and D
ata Watches, W
arnings
Haz
ard
Information Flow (schematic)
What is available
• Experiences and Know How gained from the set-up of an End-to-End Early Warning System in Indonesia (delivered on November 11, 2008) and the set-up of Regional Infrastructures in the Indian Ocean Region
• Modular IT-Infrastructure based on an open architecture, most advanced tools and capable to integrate the different instruments or networks
• Advanced Modelling and Simulation System (including Inundation/Run-up)
• Large parts of the infrastructure adaptable to other hazards• Dissemination strategies and tools available
Commitment of Countries to• participate in the joint effort• allow for open data access from national
sensors or networks• allow access to geospatial data• operate national Early Warning Centres
(24/7-Service)• take over responsibility (and budget) for
maintenance and operation
What else is needed?
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