the washington region’s economy in 2017 and its outlook for … · 2018-04-11 · the washington...

The Washington Region’s Economy in 2017

and Its Outlook for 2018 and Beyond

Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.

Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor

Director, Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Schar School of Policy and Government

George Mason University

April 11, 2018

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dallas (1st)

Seattle (3rd)

Houston (4th)

Atlanta (5th)

Boston (8th)

Washington (15th)

GRP Growth in Washington and Peer Metros, 2010 – 2016100 = 2010

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

The Changing Structure of the Washington Region Economy

Local Serving

Activities

34.8%

Non-Local

Serving

Business

12.0%

Other

Federal

10.7%Fed Wages &

Salaries

10.0%

Procurement

19.1%

Total

Federal

39.8%Local Serving

Activities

38.3%

Non-Local

Serving

Business

19.1%Total

Federal

27.2%

Other Federal

7.7% Fed Wages &

Salaries

6.7%

Procurement

12.8%

2010 2022

Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU; Forecast January 2017

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Federal Government JobsWashington MSA

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s)

Feb 18 Total = 362.4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

81.5

68.9

77.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Federal Procurement in the Washington Region, 1980-2017

Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

($s Billions)

TOTAL = $1,384.0 Billion

Job Growth and Change in the Washington Region

117.1

41.1

8.7

55.070.5

64.251.6

24.013.0

-50.8

11.1

42.9 39.227.6

17.2

55.7 59.250.9

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

2000-2017 Avg: +38,790

Job Change in the Washington Region2000 – 2017 (in thousands)

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ja

n-1

4

Mar-

14

May-1

4

Ju

l-14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Ju

l-16

Se

p-1

6

No

v-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Ju

l-17

Se

p-1

7

No

v-1

7

Preliminary

Final

Preliminary & Final BLS Job Estimates Washington Region

Monthly Over-the-Year Change, 2014-2017 (Thousands)

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

15 Largest U.S. Job MarketsJob Change: February 2017 – February 2018

Ranked by GRP in 2016(000s)

Washington: +44,800

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

-0.2

-0.7

3.4

0.1

2.7

4.1

4.7

0.1

9.7

3.3

-6.6

7.6

16.6

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Transportation & Utilities

Information Services

Financial Activities

Construction

Other Services

Retail Trade

Leisure & Hospitality

State & Local Govt

Federal Govt

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

Washington MSA Job Change by Sector February 2017 – February 2018

Ranked by Size in 2017 (000s)Total = 44,800

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

District of ColumbiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2018

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Feb 18 = +8.1

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Suburban MarylandAnnual Job Change, 2002-2018

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Feb 18 = +1.7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Northern VirginiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2018

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Feb 18 = +32.9

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

2.7

5.9

1.5

2.0

-0.8

-1.0

6.2

3.2

2.2

11.6

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Information Services

Transportation & Utilities

Construction

Financial Activities

Other Services

Federal Govt

Retail Trade

Leisure & Hospitality

State & Local Govt

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector February 2017 – February 2018

Ranked by Size in 2017 (000s)Total = 32,900

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

The Housing Market in 2017

2.5% 2.5%2.3%

1.6%1.8%

1.7%

1.4%

2.3%1.9%

1.8%

1.1% 1.2%

2.0%

1.7%1.5%

1.0%1.1%

1.4%

1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

0.8% 0.7% 0.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

D.C.

NorthernVirginia

WashingtonRegion

SuburbanMaryland

Population Growth by Sub-State AreaWashington Region, 2010 to 2017

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (v2017 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

49.0 49.2 47.8 48.7 47.8 44.9 42.6

37.2 39.7 39.4 41.0 45.4 45.6

44.8

23.9

(23.2) (31.5) (31.5) (21.5)

(40.0)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2010-2011

+2.0%

2011-2012

+1.7%

2012-2013

+1.5%

2013-2014

+1.1%

2014-2015

+1.0%

2015-2016

+0.9%

2016-2017

+1.1%

Net DomesticMigration

Net InternationalMigration

Natural Increase

Total

Population Growth By Component ChangeWashington Region (in 000s)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (v2017 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

Total Increase:

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,50012-mo moving

average

Change in Existing Home SalesWashington MSA, Month Over-the Year

Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Washington MSA

Month-Over-Year 2000 – 2018(%)

Feb 18: -8.3%

Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA

(000s of $)

Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Feb 18: $400.8k

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA: All Housing Types

(%)Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Feb 18: -0.6%

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia: All Housing Types

(%)Annual Month-Over-Year Change

Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Feb 18: +0.8%Annual Change

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

The Near-Term Performance of the Washington Region’s Economy

-2

0

2

4

Washington Region Leading IndexMonth-Over-The-Year Percent Change

Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

12-Month Moving Average

(%)12-Mo Avg: Forecast

Employment Change by Sub-State Area(000s)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

D.C. 15.9 13.7 7.5 5.9 4.6 5.0 4.2 5.2

Sub. MD 12.5 14.4 12.8 15.7 11.0 9.1 7.1 9.3

No. VA 29.8 31.1 22.6 25.9 22.3 17.6 16.0 17.5

REGION 57.7 59.2 50.9 47.4 38.2 31.8 27.4 32.1

Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of September 2017)

NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.

Average Annual Change 2000-2017 = 39,350

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Washington

U.S.

U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2016 – 2022

(Annual % Change)(%)

Forecast

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Markit, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

Forecast as of January 2018

Thank You & Questions

For monthly reports on the Washington region’s economic performance go to:

sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu