the washington region’s economy in 2017 and its outlook for … · 2018-04-11 · the washington...
TRANSCRIPT
The Washington Region’s Economy in 2017
and Its Outlook for 2018 and Beyond
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.
Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Stephen S. Fuller Institute
Schar School of Policy and Government
George Mason University
April 11, 2018
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Dallas (1st)
Seattle (3rd)
Houston (4th)
Atlanta (5th)
Boston (8th)
Washington (15th)
GRP Growth in Washington and Peer Metros, 2010 – 2016100 = 2010
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
The Changing Structure of the Washington Region Economy
Local Serving
Activities
34.8%
Non-Local
Serving
Business
12.0%
Other
Federal
10.7%Fed Wages &
Salaries
10.0%
Procurement
19.1%
Total
Federal
39.8%Local Serving
Activities
38.3%
Non-Local
Serving
Business
19.1%Total
Federal
27.2%
Other Federal
7.7% Fed Wages &
Salaries
6.7%
Procurement
12.8%
2010 2022
Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU; Forecast January 2017
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Federal Government JobsWashington MSA
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s)
Feb 18 Total = 362.4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
81.5
68.9
77.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Federal Procurement in the Washington Region, 1980-2017
Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
($s Billions)
TOTAL = $1,384.0 Billion
Job Growth and Change in the Washington Region
117.1
41.1
8.7
55.070.5
64.251.6
24.013.0
-50.8
11.1
42.9 39.227.6
17.2
55.7 59.250.9
(60.0)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2000-2017 Avg: +38,790
Job Change in the Washington Region2000 – 2017 (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ja
n-1
4
Mar-
14
May-1
4
Ju
l-14
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Mar-
15
May-1
5
Ju
l-15
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Mar-
16
May-1
6
Ju
l-16
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Mar-
17
May-1
7
Ju
l-17
Se
p-1
7
No
v-1
7
Preliminary
Final
Preliminary & Final BLS Job Estimates Washington Region
Monthly Over-the-Year Change, 2014-2017 (Thousands)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
15 Largest U.S. Job MarketsJob Change: February 2017 – February 2018
Ranked by GRP in 2016(000s)
Washington: +44,800
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-0.2
-0.7
3.4
0.1
2.7
4.1
4.7
0.1
9.7
3.3
-6.6
7.6
16.6
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Information Services
Financial Activities
Construction
Other Services
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hospitality
State & Local Govt
Federal Govt
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Washington MSA Job Change by Sector February 2017 – February 2018
Ranked by Size in 2017 (000s)Total = 44,800
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
District of ColumbiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2018
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Feb 18 = +8.1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Suburban MarylandAnnual Job Change, 2002-2018
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Feb 18 = +1.7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Northern VirginiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2018
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s) Feb 18 = +32.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
2.7
5.9
1.5
2.0
-0.8
-1.0
6.2
3.2
2.2
11.6
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Information Services
Transportation & Utilities
Construction
Financial Activities
Other Services
Federal Govt
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hospitality
State & Local Govt
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector February 2017 – February 2018
Ranked by Size in 2017 (000s)Total = 32,900
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
The Housing Market in 2017
2.5% 2.5%2.3%
1.6%1.8%
1.7%
1.4%
2.3%1.9%
1.8%
1.1% 1.2%
2.0%
1.7%1.5%
1.0%1.1%
1.4%
1.1% 1.1% 1.0%
0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
D.C.
NorthernVirginia
WashingtonRegion
SuburbanMaryland
Population Growth by Sub-State AreaWashington Region, 2010 to 2017
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (v2017 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
49.0 49.2 47.8 48.7 47.8 44.9 42.6
37.2 39.7 39.4 41.0 45.4 45.6
44.8
23.9
(23.2) (31.5) (31.5) (21.5)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2010-2011
+2.0%
2011-2012
+1.7%
2012-2013
+1.5%
2013-2014
+1.1%
2014-2015
+1.0%
2015-2016
+0.9%
2016-2017
+1.1%
Net DomesticMigration
Net InternationalMigration
Natural Increase
Total
Population Growth By Component ChangeWashington Region (in 000s)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (v2017 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Total Increase:
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,50012-mo moving
average
Change in Existing Home SalesWashington MSA, Month Over-the Year
Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Washington MSA
Month-Over-Year 2000 – 2018(%)
Feb 18: -8.3%
Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute
Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA
(000s of $)
Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute
Feb 18: $400.8k
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSA: All Housing Types
(%)Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute
Feb 18: -0.6%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb Apr
Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia: All Housing Types
(%)Annual Month-Over-Year Change
Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute
Feb 18: +0.8%Annual Change
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
The Near-Term Performance of the Washington Region’s Economy
-2
0
2
4
Washington Region Leading IndexMonth-Over-The-Year Percent Change
Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
12-Month Moving Average
(%)12-Mo Avg: Forecast
Employment Change by Sub-State Area(000s)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
D.C. 15.9 13.7 7.5 5.9 4.6 5.0 4.2 5.2
Sub. MD 12.5 14.4 12.8 15.7 11.0 9.1 7.1 9.3
No. VA 29.8 31.1 22.6 25.9 22.3 17.6 16.0 17.5
REGION 57.7 59.2 50.9 47.4 38.2 31.8 27.4 32.1
Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of September 2017)
NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.
Average Annual Change 2000-2017 = 39,350
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2016 – 2022
(Annual % Change)(%)
Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Markit, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Forecast as of January 2018
Thank You & Questions
For monthly reports on the Washington region’s economic performance go to:
sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu