the world in 2050 · 2019. 4. 24. · sustainable future transformation legitimacy of baueroding...

International Symposium on Global Sustainable Development Goals in a Mediatized World, Austrian Academy of Sciences – 4 April 2019

Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Former Professor of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

The World in 2050

International Symposium on Global Sustainable Development Goals in a Mediatized World, Austrian Academy of Sciences – 4 April 2019

Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Former Professor of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

The World in 2050 and the Six Grand Transformations towards SDGs SDGs:

ProsperitySocial Inclusion

Sustainability

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Four Great Achievements since the Beginning of Industrial Revolution

Life expectancy has doubled in a century

One billion are obese while less go hungry

Less die by war and violence than suicide

Everyone in the world has a mobile phone

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Source: Modi, 2011

Mobile Phones Charging

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Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013

Wood for Cooking

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Denmark

Finland

France

GermanyJapan

New Zealand

Norway

Sweden

United KingdomUnited States

y = 2.2x - 0.27R² = 0.76

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40Inequality

(1985 Gini Coefficient)

Intergenerational earnings elasticity

The Great Gatsby Curve

United States(2010)

y = 2.2x - 0.27R² = 0.76

United States (2010 Gini)

.

The Great Gatsby CurveHigher income inequality associated with lower intergenerational mobility

Source: Corak OECD, 2011; Kruger CEA, 2012

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100,000-year ice-core record

Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.

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Tipping Elements & Paris

Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016

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Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%)

Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)

Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

Climate Change & SDGs Key messages derived from IPCC SR1.5

● Climate Change is undermining sustainable development

● NDCs are insufficient to limit temperatures to 1.5°C

● There are multiple synergies between limiting warming to 1.5oC and achievement of the SDGs

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0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Total G

loba

l Policy C

osts (2

010‐20

30)

Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014

Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies

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Interactions between SDG 7 & other SDGs

Source: McCollum et. al, 2018

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Using knowledge on interlinkages to exploit synergies and minimize trade-offs in the policy process can contribute to overall policy coherence

Interlinkages among the SDGs

• Survey of existing publications• A tool to visualize the cumulated

interlinkages from a set of publications

• Meta analysis of the main studies on interlinkages

interlinkages among Goals and targets

Source: Miola, 2019

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Using knowledge on interlinkages to exploit synergies and minimize trade-offs in the policy process can contribute to overall policy coherence

Interlinkages among the SDGs

• Survey of existing publications• A tool to visualize the cumulated

interlinkages from a set of publications

• Meta analysis of the main studies on interlinkages

interlinkages among Goals and targets

Source: Miola, 2019

2019 #18Nakicenovic

Using knowledge on interlinkages to exploit synergies and minimize trade-offs in the policy process can contribute to overall policy coherence

Interlinkages among the SDGs

• Survey of existing publications• A tool to visualize the cumulated

interlinkages from a set of publications

• Meta analysis of the main studies on interlinkages

interlinkages among Goals and targets

Source: Miola, 2019

2018 #19Nakicenovic

TWI2050 Writing Meeting 5-7 March 2018, IIASA

Key MessagesSynthesis1. Framing and Introduction 2. The Challenges Ahead3. Sustainable Development

Pathways4. Governing the Transformation

>60 authors from ~20 organizations

>150 contributors and participants

TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)

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TWI2050 Report Launch@ HLPF 2018

● Advancing STI for SDGs– July 10, 11-13:00, @ UN HQ,

Conference Room 4● TWI2050 Report Launch

– July 12, 13-15:00 @ UN HQ, Conference Room S-1522/23

● Managing interactions between SDGs for transformation– July 12, 18:30-20:00 @ UN HQ,

Conference Room A

TWI2050 Launch HLPF10 July 2018, UN

● @ German House– July 17, 13:30 – 15:00, Permanent Mission of the Republic

of Germany to the UN, UN Plaza

2018 #21Nakicenovic

Outreach & Impact● > 2,500 report downloads (IIASA only)● > 400 hard copies disseminated● 6 Policy briefs for EGMs and HLPF● Input to Technology Facilitation

Mechanism of STI for SDGs and HLPF on SDGs review

● Box on digitalization in upcoming GSDR ● > 55 citations (report and initiative) on

Google Scholar

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Some Key MessagesAttaining the SDGs requires vigorous action now,

and a people and planet focus beyond 2030! As everything is integrated in the connected world,

transformation requires a holistic perspective!Transformational change is needed but to succeed

we must take along winners and losers!The world is at crossroads as we are currently

experiencing signs of a counter-transformation!

A central to sustainability transformation is effective and inclusive governance!

Think globally, act locally! Think long-term, act now!

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Vision: Sustainable Future

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Legitimacy of BAU eroding

Source: After WBGU, 2011

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.org)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

2030 2050

Target space 2050+ →

← Target space 2030

One “backcasting” storyline and many transformational pathways

2018 #25Nakicenovic

Human capacity Demography &

Health

SDGs:Prosperity

Social InclusionSustainability

Decarbonization& Energy

Consumption& Production

Smart Cities & Mobility

Food, Biosphere & Water

Digital Revolution

Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)

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1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

shar

e (%

)

0102030405060708090

100

Primary education

Secondary education

Tertiary education

Education and Human Capacity

Transformation (SSP1)

Source: Lutz et al., 2018

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017 

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017 

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017 

“Carbon Law”

1

Greenhouse gas emissions pathways● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2

emissions fall by about 45% by 2030 (from 2010 levels)

● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would need to reach ‘net zero’ around 2050

● Reducing non‐CO2 emissions would have direct and immediate health benefits

SDGs:Prosperity

Social InclusionSustainability

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Human capacity Demography &

Health

SDGs:Prosperity

Social InclusionSustainability

Decarbonization& Energy

Consumption& Production

Smart Cities & Mobility

Food, Biosphere & Water

Digital Revolution

Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)

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Impact of IC Technology Convergence Uticaj konvergencije informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija

Source: Grubler et al., 2018

2018 #33Nakicenovic

Impact of IC Technology Convergence Uticaj konvergencije informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija

Source: Grubler et al., 2018

2018 #34Nakicenovic

Technology Diffusion Compareddigital revolution

Source: Nokia Bell Labs, 2017

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Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.

Disruptive Change

Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

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THANK YOU

naki@iiasa.ac.at