topic 2 infrastructure planning session 02-04 matakuliah: s0902 – manajemen infrastruktur tahun:...

Topic 2

Infrastructure PlanningSession 02-04

Matakuliah : S0902 – Manajemen Infrastruktur

Tahun : 2010

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Learning outcomes

Mahasiswa dapat

memperhitungkan aspek-aspek yang mempengaruhi perencanaan infrastruktur

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Mind Map ( Topic 2 )

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Contents

• Feasibility Study• Project and Master

Planning• Planning for uncertainty

and Risk

• Economic Analysis

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Feasibility StudyWhat is Feasibility study ?

A feasibility study is an evaluation of a proposal designed to determine the difficulty in carrying out a designated task.

Generally, a feasibility study precedes technical development and project implementation.

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Feasibility StudyWhat is Feasibility study ?

A feasibility study is the first step in design and Evaluation which to be an important matter for integrated infrastructure development

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Feasibility StudyWhat for…..?1. Evaluation Project2. Planning3. Strategic4. Infrastructure Development5. Sustainability Infrastructure

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Feasibility StudyHow ??1. Collecting recent Internal Data2. Collecting recent and future external

data3. Field Study4. Interviews5. Evaluation previous data / report

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Project and Master Planning

Project ::

A project is a temporary endeavor, having a defined

beginning and end ,

undertaken to meet particular goals and objectives, usually

to bring about beneficial change or added value. [ Wikipedia ]

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Project and Master Planning

Planning ::

Planning is a process for

accomplishing purpose.

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Project and Master Planning

Planning ::

Planning is a blue print of business growth and a road

map of development. It helps in deciding objectives both in quantitative and qualitative

terms.

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Project and Master Planning

Planning ::

Planning is setting of goals on the basis of

objectives and keeping in view the resources.

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Project and Master Planning

Planning ::What should a plan be?

A plan should be a realistic view of the expectations, It is the framework within which

it must operate. ; the plan is the most important document and key to growth. Preparation of a comprehensive plan will not guarantee success, but lack of a sound plan

will almost certainly ensure failure. [ wikipedia]

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Project and Master Planning

Planning ::Importance of the planning Process•A plan can play a vital role in helping to

avoid mistakes or recognize hidden opportunities. Preparing a satisfactory plan of the organization is essential. The

planning process enables management to understand more clearly what they want to achieve, and how and when they can do it.

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Project and Master Planning

Planning ::Importance of the planning Process

•A well-prepared business plan demonstrates

that the managers know the business and that they have thought through its development in terms of products, management, finances, and most importantly, markets and competition.

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Project and Master Planning

Planning ::Importance of the planning Process

•Planning helps in forecasting the future, makes the future visible to some extent. It bridges between where we are and where we want to go. Planning is looking ahead.

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Project and Master Planning

Planning ::

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Project and Master Planning

Master Planning ::

A plan giving comprehensive guidance or instruction.

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Project and Master Planning

Master Planning ::

The Master Plan process provides a

blueprint for the future. The future plan is just that, a plan, and will only be implemented as warranted by actual activity.

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Project and Master Planning

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Project and Master Planning

STEPS :: [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 1.6]

1.Establishment of goals and objectives

– Broad Policies– Long term plan– Integration of infrastructure goals with broader

policy objectives

Establish clear and measurable statements of what the project want to accomplish to meet its policy goals

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Project and Master Planning

STEPS :: [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 1.6]

2. Problem Identification & Analysis

– Collecting Data– Projecting demand and supply– Uses of resources ( land, water, air etc )– Identification opportunities for development and

management

– SWOT Analysis

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SWOT Analysis

is a strategic planning method used to evaluate

the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats involved in a project

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SWOT Analysis

It involves specifying the objective of the project and

identifying the internal and

external factors that are

favorable and unfavorable

to achieving that objective.

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SWOT Analysis

SWOT Analysis’ technique is credited to Albert Humphrey, who led a

convention at Stanford University in the 1960s and 1970s using data from Fortune 500 companies [ Wikipedia ]

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SWOT Analysis

SWOT analysis must first start with defining a desired end state or

objective.

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SWOT Analysis

Identification of SWOTs is

essential because subsequent steps in the process of planning for achievement of the selected objective may be derived from the SWOTs.

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SWOT Analysis

SWOT Elements

1. Internal Factor:• Strengths: attributes of the project

that are helpful to achieving the objective.

• Weaknesses: attributes of the project

that are harmful to achieving the objective.

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SWOT AnalysisSWOT Elements

2. External Factor :• Opportunities: external conditions

that are helpful to achieving the objective.

• Threats: external conditions which

could do damage to the objective.

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SWOT Analysis

Strength Weakness

Internal Analysis

Opportunity

Threat

Ext

ern

al A

nal

ysis

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Project and Master Planning

STEPS :: [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 1.6]

3. Solution identification and impact assessment

– Structural Solution– Non Structural Solution– Preliminary assessment of impact

Identify and measure deficiencies, problems and needs

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Project and Master Planning

STEPS :: [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book

– p 1.6]4. 4. Formulation of alternatives and analysis

– Criteria and procedure for comparison of measure

– Detailed assessment of impact

Identify alternative solutions to address these needs

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Project and Master Planning

STEPS :: [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 1.6]

5. Recommendations

– Priorities– Schedules for implementation

Identify priorities for each program area consistent with the project’s goals and objectives

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Project and Master Planning

STEPS :: [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 1.6]

6. Decision

– Base on recommendation and analysis– Financing for Project

Develop an expenditure plan based on available resources and cost

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Project and Master Planning

STEPS :: [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 1.6]

7. Implementation

– Final design– Construction Planning– Construction process

Implement Program

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Project and Master Planning

STEPS :: [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 1.6]

8. Operation and Maintenance

– Maintenance – Including appropriate organizations to carry out

these function

Monitoring for operation and maintenance program

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Planning for uncertainty and Risk

Uncertainty ::

The lack of certainty, A

state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe existing state or future outcome, more than one possible outcome.

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Planning for uncertainty and Risk

Measurement of Uncertainty ::

A set of possible states or outcomes where probabilities are assigned to each possible state or outcome - this also includes the application of a probability density function to continuous variable

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Planning for uncertainty and Risk

Risk ::

A state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or significant loss.

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Planning for uncertainty and Risk

Measurement of Risk ::

A set of measured uncertainties where some possible outcomes are losses, and the magnitudes of those losses - this also includes loss functions over continuous variables.

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Economic Analysis:: Economics

is the social science that studies

the production, distribution,

and consumption of goods and

services. [ wikipedia ]

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Economic Analysis:: Economics

The term economics comes from the Ancient Greek οἰκονομία (oikonomia, "management of a household, administration") from οἶκος (oikos,

"house") + νόμος (nomos, "custom" or "law"), hence "rules of the house(hold)

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Economic AnalysisFinancial Analysis are

needed for most public and private projects that involve capital investments

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Economic AnalysisTypes of Documentation that must be

prepared :

1. Estimates of Investment2. Detailed Schedule ( e.g for

investment cost by year )

3. Estimates of portions of investment cost in domestic n

foreign fund ( in case for developing country )

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Economic AnalysisTypes of Documentation that must be

prepared :

4. Plan for Financing the cost of project investment ( sources of fund, term for repayment )

5. Plan for the required annual subsidies

6. Additional statements of a financial nature depending of regulatory agencies and financial institution involved the projec

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Planning & Appraisal of Infrastructure Project [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 3.2]

1.Preliminary

– Is a feasible project likely?– What are approximate of capacity

and cost?– What additional studies are needed

to confirm feasibility?

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Planning & Appraisal of Infrastructure Project [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 3.2]

2. Feasibility Report

A comprehensive feasibility report should include:

– Description and analysis data– Confirmation of construction feasibility

and laboratory investigation, studies of project arrangements, individual project features, analysis of construction method ( sources of materials, accessibility to site management traffic pattern, dversion of water during construction )

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Planning & Appraisal of Infrastructure Project [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 3.2]

2. Feasibility Report

A comprehensive feasibility report should include:

– Recommendation for arrangement of project works, preliminary plan and other analysis to determine the principal quantities of construction, a reliable cost estimate and the discussion of the design criteria

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Planning & Appraisal of Infrastructure Project [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 3.2]

2. Feasibility Report

A comprehensive feasibility report should include:

– Construction scheduling showing the timing and costs of project features

– Financial analysis projecting year-by-year cost , revenue, and subsidies

– Economic Analysis ( if appropriate ) e.g if the sponsor is regional authority

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Planning & Appraisal of Infrastructure Project [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 3.2]

2. Feasibility Report

A comprehensive feasibility report should include:

– Plan for financing construction and for managing the construction and operation

– Institutional and legal requirement – Assessment of the environmental and

social impacts of construction and operation and other impact studies if required

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Planning & Appraisal of Infrastructure Project [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 3.2]

3. Final Design and Preparation of Contract documents

Contract documents include plan and specification that are sufficiently detailed to obtained tender for qualified construction and equipment contractor

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Planning & Appraisal of Infrastructure Project [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 3.2]

4. Construction– Payment to the contractor are

usually made based on measurement of work in progress or completed, in accordance with the term of the contract documents

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Planning & Appraisal of Infrastructure Project [ Goodman , Infrastructure planning Hand book – p 3.2]

5. Operation

– The operating rules may be changed on the basis of experience during the operation of the project