traveling after covid after covid.pdf · traveling after covid 1 frederic thomas2, associate...

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www.be-rta.com

TravelingafterCOVID1

FredericTHOMAS2,AssociateProfessor,IREST,Paris1Pantheon-SorbonneThequestionnaireon thepropensity to travel afterCOVID-19wasdesigned to capture individuals'feelings about travelling after COVID-19. It was shared online through professional and academicnetworks specialized in tourism issues. As a result, a large but unknown proportion of therespondentsareindividualsworkingorstudyinginthetourismfield.Atotalof1,764questionnaireswerecollectedonline in30days, from18April to18May2020.Themain respondentswere fromEuropean countries (794), followedbyAsia (605),America (168),Oceania and thePacific (99) andAfrica and the Middle East (98). French accounted for 29% of respondents, followed by Chinese(15%), Iranians (7%),Colombians (5%)andAustralians (5%).Womenwerealmost twiceas likelyasmentohaverespondedto thissurvey (64.9%of respondentswerewomen,comparedto34.5%ofmen).Only respondents from Iran and South Koreahad theopposite trend in the gender ratio ofrespondents.

Table1-Top10NationalitiesandCountriesofresidence

Nationality CountryofresidenceFrench 513 557Chinese 273 239Iranian 128 112

Colombian 89 90Australian 82 97

Korean 77 68Vietnamese 66 56American 47 46

Thai 36 49German 32 19

Theaverageageofrespondentswasbetween25and34years,althoughdifferencesappearbetweennationalitygroupswithrespondentsgenerallyolderinEastAsia(55-64)andOceaniaandthePacific(45-54).

Figure1–Agebracketofrespondentsforthemaingroupofnationalitiesofrespondents

1 TheauthorwouldliketothankChristineJacqueminfromRTA(www.be-rta.com)andtheformerandcurrentstudentsof2 Frederic.Thomas1@univ-paris1.fr

00%05%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica

OceaniaandPaci<ic

SouthAmerica

South-EastAsia

AfricaandMiddleEast

WesternEurope

<25

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

>65

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Question1–Idon'tthinkIwillchangemybehaviourandIwishIcouldcontinuetotravelasbefore

WhenaskedaboutthelikelihoodofchangingbehaviourafterCOVID,respondentsfromChinaweretheonlygroupforwhichtheaverageratingofresponseswasneutral(3.07).FortheothernationalitygroupswithhigherratesforEastAsiaandOceaniaandPacific, it ishighly likely, ifnotcertain,thatmostwillnotchangetheirbehaviour.Inotherwords,mostdonotwishtochangetheirbehaviour.Inaverage,about20%onlydisagreeortotallydisagreetonotchangetheirbehaviourandconsiderthattheywon’tcontinuetotravelasbefore.Question2–Iamafraidthatmyfinancialsituationasaresultofthishealthcrisiswillnotallowmetotravelforatleastayear.

Mainly for respondents from Iran (3.54)andSouthAmerica (3.73),and toa lesserextent toAfricaandtheMiddleEast(3.39),itismostlikelythattheirfinancialsituationwillnotallowthemtotravel.For respondents from Asia, Oceania and the Pacific, this is still uncertain, while Westerners(Europeans–2.72andNorthAmericans–2.50)seemquiteconfidentthattheywon’tbeconstrainedbytheirfinancialsituation.Notethatweareonyoungersamplesofrespondentsforthelatter.

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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica

OceaniaandPaci<ic

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South-EastAsia

AfricaandMiddleEast

WesternEurope

Totallyagree

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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica

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Totallyagree

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Question3–Ibelievethatmytravelswillinitiallybelessfarfrommyhomecountrywithpriorityformycountryofresidenceorbordercountries.

Withanaveragegreater than3, all nationality groups think that their tripswill initially be less farfrom their country of origin,with priority given to their country of residence or border countries.Differences are only observed in the degree of certainty with, in particular, a higher degree ofcertainty for IraniansandSouthAmericansand toa lesserextent to those fromAfricaandMiddleEast.Question 4 – I would like a different form of tourism, more respectful of the visitedcommunitiesandofnature.

Althoughallnationalitiesorgroupsofnationalitieswantadifferentformoftourism,morerespectfulofnatureandthecommunitiesvisited,thereisastrongerconvictionforsustainabletourismamonggroupsofnationalitieswithyoungerrespondents(SouthAmerica,South-EastAsia,AfricaandMiddleEast,andWesternEurope).However,thisobservationislessclear-cutforcertainnationalities(Iran)or groups of nationalities (Oceania and the Pacific) for which there are either uncertainties ordivergencesofthesameproportionasthecertaintiesaboutthisambition.

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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica

OceaniaandPaci<ic

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AfricaandMiddleEast

WesternEurope

Totallyagree

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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica

OceaniaandPaci<ic

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WesternEurope

Totallyagree

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Question5–Inowwishtoavoidmasstourismdestinationsandlargecities.

WiththeexceptionofthegroupsofnationalitiesfromEastAsiaandOceaniaandthePacific,olderonaveragethantheothers,forwhomtheintentiontocontinuetravellingtomasstourismdestinationsor major cities remains uncertain but still exists, the other groups of nationalities majoritarilyexpressedtheirdesiretoavoidthesedestinations.Question 6 – I now believe that certain countries and regions are at risk from a healthpointofviewandInolongerwishtovisitthem.

Theideathatsomedestinationswouldnowbemoreatriskthanothersfromahealthperspectiveisperceivedverydifferentlybythedifferentnationalitygroups. Respondentsof Iranian,ChineseandAfricanorMiddleEastnationalitieshaveastrongerpropensitytoviewthisassumptionpositively,incontrasttoWesternEuropeans,forwhomthisisnotthecase.Itisdifficulttoconsidertheageasanexplanatory factor, sinceboth theChineseand theWesternEuropeansamplesof respondentsaremadeupmainlyofindividualsunder34yearsofage.

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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica

OceaniaandPaci<ic

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AfricaandMiddleEast

WesternEurope

Totallyagree

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China EastAsia Iran NorthAmerica

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Totallyagree

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Question7–Inviewofthecurrenthealthcrisis,whichcountriesorregionsnowseemtoyoutobethesafestfromahealthperspective?

Although for13%of therespondents,nodestinationseemssafe today, threeregionsarehoweverconsideredbyaboutathirdoftherespondentsassafefromahealthperspectivenamelyNorthernEurope(31%),EastAsia(27%)andOceaniaandPacific(26%).Question8–Inviewofthecurrenthealthcrisis,whichcountriesorregionsnowseemtoyoutobetheleastsafefromahealthperspective?

Thequestionconcerning the least safe countries fromahealthperspective, in viewof thecurrentcrisis,alsorevealsagroupofthreeregionsofwhichtwohadthehighestnumberofcasesatthetimeofthequestionnaire(NorthernAmerica–39%andWesternEurope–29%).Paradoxically,EastAsia,whichwasconsideredasoneofthesafestregionsby27%ofrespondents,isalsoconsideredasoneoftheleastsafeby32%ofrespondents.Thisisdueinparttotheoriginoftherespondentsandthegeographicoriginofthepandemic.Thisdocument is a first restitutionof the results: further statistical analysiswill allow to completethisinformationandtoprovidemoreaccuracytothefindings.

WesternEurope

EasternEurope

NorthernEurope

Eurasia

Mediterranean

SouthAsia

NorthAsia

EastAsia

Sout-EastAsia

OceaniaandPaci8ic

NorthernAm

erica

CentralAmerica

LatinAmericaandthe

Caribbean

SouthAmerica

NorthAfrica

Sub-saharanAfrica

EastAfrica

CentralAfrica

SouthAfrica

MiddleEast

IndianOcean

None

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WesternEurope

EasternEurope

NorthernEurope

Eurasia

Mediterranean

SouthAsia

NorthAsia

EastAsia

Sout-EastAsia

OceaniaandPaci8ic

NorthernAm

erica CentralAmerica

LatinAmericaandthe

Caribbean

SouthAmerica

NorthAfrica

Sub-saharanAfrica

EastAfrica

CentralAfrica

SouthAfrica

MiddleEast

IndianOcean

None

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Annex

Table2–Summaryofquestionsaverage

Nationalityorgroupofnationalities

#ofRespondents Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6

China 235 3,07 3,02 3,43 3,82 3,46 3,73EastAsia 75 3,68 3,05 3,48 3,61 3,13 3,16

Iran 112 3,72 3,54 3,79 3,60 3,84 4,01NorthAmerica 60 3,38 2,50 3,38 3,92 3,52 3,12

OceaniaandPacific 99 4,01 3,15 3,37 3,86 3,07 3,22SouthAmerica 100 3,64 3,73 3,78 4,43 3,74 3,45South-EastAsia 175 3,68 3,20 3,61 4,40 3,82 3,21

AfricaandMiddle-East 98 3,79 3,32 3,59 4,39 4,02 3,37WesternEurope 663 3,53 2,72 3,62 4,38 3,63 2,83

Average 1764 3,55 2,99 3,56 4,12 3,59 3,16