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Trends of Agricultural Production,
Technology Adoption and Trade
Presented by
Dr Jones Govereh
2nd September 2011
Outline
• Data Issues
• Production Trends
– Food & Export Crops
– Fisheries
– Livestock
– Forestry
• Trends in Technology Adoption
• Trends in Agricultural Trade
Data Issues
Comparison of Production Trends
Maize Cassava
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pro
du
ctio
n (
'00
0 t
on
s)
TIA EWS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2002 2005 2006 2007 2008P
rod
uct
ion
('0
00
ton
s)
TIA EWS
Growth in Output (%/yr)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Maize Sorghum Paddy rice Beans Grounduts Cassava
Av
era
ge
gro
wth
(%
/yr)
TIA EWS
Production Trends
Relative Economic Importance
Export crops
27%
Cereals
23%
Cassava
41%
Legumes
9%
Trends in Economic Importance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pe
r ce
nt
(%)
Export crops Cereals Cassava Legumes
Growth in Area Planted & Production
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Maize Rice Sorghum Groundnuts Cassava Beans Total
Av
era
ge
gro
wth
(%
/yr)
Area Output
Growth in Output of Export Crops
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Raw cotton Cashew nut Sugar cane Tea Citrus Coconut Tobacco
Gro
wth
(%
/yr)
2000 - 2004 2005 - 2008
Fisheries
Trends in Economic Importance of Fish
Sub-Sectors
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pe
r ce
nt
(%)
Crustaceans Sea Fish Fresh water fish
Average Growth Rates (%/yr)
2000 – 2008 fish sub-sectors
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Crustaceans Sea Fish Kapenta Forestry
Gro
wth
(%
/yr)
2000 - 2004 2005 - 2008
Livestock & Forestry
Growth in livestock herd population
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Cattle Goats Chickens Sheep Pigs
Gro
wth
(%
/yr)
2000 - 2004 2005 - 2008
Forest Harvest Trends 2000 - 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cu
bic
me
tre
s
Licenses Harvest
Technology Adoption
Yield Trends for Selected Crops
Yields Maize Rice Sorghum Groundnuts 2002 0.707 0.279 0.396 0.312 2005 0.508 0.203 0.300 0.202 2006 0.839 0.273 0.497 0.262 2007 0.681 0.284 0.435 0.255 2008 0.618 0.284 0.329 0.223 Average yields 0.671 0.265 0.391 0.251 Potential yields 5.0 – 6.5 2.5 – 6.0 0.8-2.0 Average growth (%/yr) 0.10 1.60 0.01 -1.90
Smallholder Technology Adoption
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pe
r ce
nt
(%)
Irrigation Animal traction Organic fertilizer Pesticides Chemical fertiliser
Trends Agricultural Trade
Trends in Agricultural & Non-
Agricultural Trade
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US
D b
illi
on
US
D m
illi
on
Total agric imports Total agric exports Non-ag-imports Non-ag exports
Importance of Agricultural Trade in
Economy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pe
r ce
nt
(%)
agric exports as % of total agric imports as % of total imports
Trends in Importance of Agricultural
Exports
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pe
r ce
nt
(%)
Cashew nut Prawns Cotton Timber sugar
Growth in Value of Exports
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cashew Prawns Cotton Timber SugarAv
era
ge
Gro
wth
Ra
te (
%/y
r)
1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009
Agricultural Imports
Composition of Agricultural Imports
Meat, 2Fish,
crustaceans,
molluscs, 10 Dairy products,
eggs, honey, 6
Food
preperations,
meat, cereal,
milk, veg, 8
Sugars and
sugar
confectionery, 5
Fats and Oils
(animal or
vegetable), 12
Wheat and
meslin, 20
Maize (corn), 5
Rice, 32
Growth in Agricultural Imports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Av.
Gro
wth
(%
/yr)
OBRIGADO
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