trends people tech apr09
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SOME TRENDS INFLUENCING PEOPLE & USE OF TECHNOLOGYKate CarruthersApril 2009
Who Me?
Marketer, technologist, educator, law student and renaissance woman
www.katecarruthers.com
www.siliconfederation.com
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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“Innovation always comes unexpectedly & from the periphery.”
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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WEB 2.0 & INNOVATION
A few interesting things about web 2.0:• It is not new technology• It is new ways of using older technology• It is not using the old mindset where
technology was the province of gurus• It is democratizing technology • It is applying new business models
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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WEB 2.0 & INNOVATION
Let’s think about what is coming next for the web…– What are some of the drivers of innovation?– What are some of the enablers of innovation?– What are some of the important social &
cultural aspects?
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Macro Trends
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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• Next Generation Internet – semantics, contextual, geo-awareInternet• New interfaces – gesture, haptic, auditory, human-computer,
voice user interfacesInterfaces• Virtualization , cloud computing enabled by solid state drives,
blade technologyHardware• It’s here and it will continue to growSocial Computing
• Wearable, networks, convergenceUbiquitous Computing
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Context & Issues
Political
Economic
SocialEnvironmental
Legal
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Context & Issues
Political
Economic
SocialEnvironmental
Legal
e.g. censorship of internet
e.g. copyright & intellectual
property
e.g. green computing &
climate change
e.g. growth of social
computing & the digital
divide
e.g. global financial crisis
Key Considerations
Technical• Hardware• Software• Infrastructure• Metadata
– Taxonomies– Ontologies– Folksonomies– RDF, FOAF, XML, RSS,
API, etc.
Business• Security & identity
management• Privacy & Censorship • Legal & Copyright• Governance & the
‘Shadow’ IT dept• Resources & Skills• Outsourcing & Support
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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10© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Speed of Change
The rate of change is increasing & this is evident in the example of the telephone. It did not change for almost 100 years & now it changes every 3 months.
11© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Speed of Change
“Skype now the world's largest international voice carrier”
Source: http://www.itwire.com/content/view/24043/127/ 25-Mar-2009
Examples of speedy changes that are shifting use by ordinary people and their expectations of technology:
Source: Market Share: Smartphones Worldwide 2008 http://www.smartcompany.com.au/telecommunications/iphone-and-blackberry-take-market-share-from-nokia.html
“iPhone maker Apple increased its market share from 2.7% in 2007 to 8.2% in 2008
12© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Generations
It is interesting to overlay the speed of change against the theory of generations. The idea goes that each age cohort has a particular relationship to technology & change adoption.
Generations?
“ I fundamentally disagree with the idea that mere membership of an age cohort determines a person’s relationship to technology or to change adoption.”
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Generations?
“ What will become a determining factor is not membership of an age cohort, rather it is one’s willingness to be connected.”
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/
Generations?
“ The willingness & desire to be hyperconnected via technology will become the new generation gap.”
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/frotzed/1700990750/
SOME FORCES FOR CHANGE
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html
Changes in Consumption
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Hitwise, Social networks overtake webmail, November 06, 2007http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2007/11/social_networks_overtake_webma.html `
Changes in Consumption
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Hitwise, Social networks overtake Adult sites, Jan 2009http://weblogs.hitwise.com/robin-goad/2009/01/social_networks_overtake_adult_websites.html
Changes in Consumption
Social Computing
20Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/ © 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Source: Brian Solis http://www.flickr.com/photos/briansolis/2735401175/sizes/l
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Social Computing
• Change is the only constant
• Ordinary people are co-opting web technology in unplanned, unorganised & unexpected ways
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: XCD http://xkcd.com/256/
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: Christopher S. Penn http://www.christopherspenn.com/2008/09/04/social-media-and-new-media-are-not-the-same/
Shift from passive consumption to active acquisition of media
Hyperconnectivity
Not 6 degrees of separation
Perhaps only 1 degree?
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Source: http://www.popsci.com.au/files/imagecache/article_image_large/files/articles/734px-Six_degrees_of_separation.jpg
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Hyperconnectivity
Social networking is crashing the degrees of separation between individuals
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Source: http://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm 11 Apr 09
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Consumption On-Demand
• No more waiting
• What I want
• When I want it
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/12/17/bittorrent-is-now-streaming-movies-with-ads-but-wheres-the-good-stuff/
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Tribal Brains
• Wired to deal with smaller groups
• Wired for small chunks of information
• Magical number 7
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Tribal Creatures
• Tribe size
• Dunbar’s number = 150
• We mesh into subgroups based on common interests
• Increasingly loose ties
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/Maasai_tribe.jpg
Chunking
• Growth of knowledge
• Too much knowledge to keep in our heads
• No more epic poetry
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Source: http://www.familycourtchronicles.com/philosophy/spartan/spartan-brad-pitt.jpg
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KNOWLEDGE SHARING
• In the distant past we used techniques like epic poetry to share important knowledge
• Then we graduated to books• And then to hypertext• NOW WE HAVE TOO MUCH INFORMATION!
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Challenges today are filtering, ordering & adding meaning to information
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Not generational conflict, ratherconnectivity conflict
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Boundaries
• Time
• Place
• Content
• Authority
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Hadrians_wall_Greenhead.jpg
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Boundaries
• We are dealing with a radically different set of expectations – from our staff, suppliers & consumers
• Many of these people were socialised in the old non-digital world; while others are digital natives
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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It’s going to be an interesting balancing act between those different sets of expectations
BOUNDARIES
We are dealing with:• Issues about boundaries in relation to
people, process & technology• Different perspectives on what the
boundaries are • Questions about if the boundaries exist at
all
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Battle is between centralised authority & growing power of individuals/smaller groups
BOUNDARIES
We can expect debates about:• Appropriate times and places of
consumption of new media • Appropriate levels of control over the
content• Who has the authority to decide all of this
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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“The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it.” – John Gilmore
Boundaries
• Defining boundaries in a hyperconnected world is a challenge
• But interesting discoveries are made at the boundaries of the currently known world
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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BOUNDARIES
Some interesting questions:
• What about the role of authority? • Who has it & why? • How do we feel about that? • Is it generational?
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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The rules are changing
We’re not in control any more. This brings
opportunities!
SOME NEW TECHNOLOGY HEADING OUR WAY
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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CHARACTERISTICS
• Accessible to ordinary people not just specialists or large companies
• Commoditization driving prices down further
• Ubiquitous & easy to use• Not requiring high levels of specialised
technical knowledge
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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New Technology
Affordable RFID chips enabling the internet of things
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: http://www.touchatag.com/
Wearable computing- e.g. shoes that report back on you
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Devices That Tell On You: The Nike+iPod Sport Kithttp://www.cs.washington.edu/research/systems/privacy.html
GPS chips that give an accurate location fix from indoors
Source: Engadgethttp://www.engadget.com/2009/02/12/epsons-tiny-gps-receiver-will-make-everything-location-aware/
44© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
Keeping the ageing baby boomer population at home longer
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Joseph Hayduk, 86, who suffers from congestive heart failure, transmits his clinical vital signs everyday via a "HomMed Health Monitoring System" to a Meridian Home Care office where a registered nurse tracks his health.Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/us/13senior.html?em
New Interfaces
• Gesture interfaces• Acoustic input • Touch screens• Haptic interfaces• Voice UI
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: http://www.nickhodge.com/blog/archives/2606
New Interfaces
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Sahara Touch-iT Tablet i200 Black
Purdue University 2004: nanoworkbench capable of providing real-time perceptualization of the mechanical properties, such as stiffness, adhesion or friction, of a nanoscale object during positioning or manipulation
Source: http://www.ecn.purdue.edu/HIRL/
New Interfaces
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Gesture Computer Interface Device Developed For Surgeons 2008http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080616101137.htm
Commercially available 2007http://www.gtec.at/products/g.MOBIlab/gMOBIlabPocketPC.htm
New Interfaces
• Clothing that senses our emotions
• This jacket lets you feel the movies
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8287 IEEE-sponsored 2009 World Haptics Conference 2009
New Interfaces
• GUI → TUI
• Moves from Graphical to Tangible User Interface
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: http://tacolab.com/projects/Siftables
Hardware
• Hard disk density• Solid state drives• Batteries• Robotics go
mainstream
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/mar09/8367
Source: http://www.maniacworld.com/cat-loves-his-roomba.html
Hardware
• Blades• Virtualization• Cloud computing/
Grid computing/ Utility computing
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Dell cluster
Amazon Web ServicesGoogle App EngineMicrosoft Azure Rackspace MossoServePath GoGrid
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Sample cloud architecturehttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/CloudComputingSampleArchitecture.svg/400px-CloudComputingSampleArchitecture.svg.png
THE BIGGEST SHIFT
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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The Biggest Shift
“… the shift towards the individual as the centre of a network of relationships mediated & enabled by technology …”
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: Kevin Kelly, http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2007/11/four_stages_in.php
The Biggest Shift
“… it means decentralisation of power from the old authorities to a new model – & we do not yet know what that new model will be.”
© 2009 Kate Carruthers www.katecarruthers.com
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Source: MIT's Technology Review: Mapping the Internet., http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/06/22/net_periphery.jpg
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