twitter q4 2015 earnings deck
Post on 06-Jan-2017
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Jan Dawson Chief Analyst (408) 744-6244 jan@jackdawresearch.com @jandawson
TWITTER Q4 2015 EARNINGS SLIDES
2
• This deck is part of the Jackdaw Research Quarterly Company Decks subscription service, and is one of about a dozen similar decks produced each quarter on major consumer tech companies
• The intention is to highlight trends and patterns which are not always obvious when merely looking at a spreadsheet
• Accompanying analysis can often be found on our blog at www.beyonddevic.es
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INTRODUCTIONJACKDAW RESEARCH QUARTERLY DECKS SERVICE
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The charts in this deck are based on the company’s reported financial and operating metrics, together with other metrics derived from them by Jackdaw Research. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data presented, and the absence of errors, we make no guarantee of accuracy and accept no liability for decisions made based on the information contained in this document. Readers should always consult the source documents if making financial or other decisions regarding the company concerned.
DISCLAIMER
4
• In Q1 2015, Twitter discontinued two metrics it had previously reported: Timeline views per monthly active user, and ad revenue per timeline view.
• It also introduced three new metrics:
• SMS Fast Followers: another flavor of monthly active users – those who used SMS to sign up and still only over use SMS to use Twitter. This is mostly an emerging market phenomenon, but will be captured in MAU going forward
• Cost per engagement growth – similar to Google or Yahoo’s cost-per-click metrics, not an actual number, but a year on year and quarter on quarter growth number, intended to measure monetization
• Ad engagements growth – again, similar to number of ads metrics reported by Google and Yahoo, and again only growth, not actuals, intended to measure engagement with ads over time, rather than user engagement with content
NOTESTWITTER REPORTING CHANGES
5 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
REVENUES$ THOUSANDS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
6 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
REVENUES BY SOURCE$ THOUSANDS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
Advertising revenue Data licensing & Other
7 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
AD REVENUE$ THOUSANDS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
8 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
REVENUES BY SOURCE% OF TOTAL REVENUES
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
Advertising as % of revenue Data licensing as % of revenue
9 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
DATA LICENSING AND OTHERAS A % OF REVENUE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
10 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
GEOGRAPHIC SPLITSINTERNATIONAL SHARE OF MAUS AND OF REVENUES
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
75% 75% 76% 76% 76% 78% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 79% 79% 79%
22%27% 26% 27% 28%
33% 34% 34% 34%36% 35% 35%
International as % of revenues International as % of MAUs
11 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
MOBILE AD REVENUE% OF TOTAL AD REVENUE FROM MOBILE DEVICES
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
12 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
AD REVENUE BY DEVICEESTIMATED MOBILE VS. NON-MOBILE AD REVENUE, $ THOUSANDS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Implied mobile ad revenue Implied non-mobile ad revenue
13 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
MARGINS
-300%
-225%
-150%
-75%
0%
75%
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
Operating margin Net margin
14 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
COST COMPONENTSEXCLUDING STOCK-BASED COMPENSATION, AS A % OF REVENUE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
Cost of revenue R&D S&M G&A
15 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
OPERATING INCOME & MARGINADJUSTED FOR STOCK-BASED COMPENSATION
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-75,000
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
Operating income adj for SBC Operating margin adj for SBC
16 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
MONTHLY ACTIVE USERSINCLUDING “SMS FAST FOLLOWERS”, MILLIONS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
17 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
MONTHLY ACTIVE USERSMONETIZABLE MAUS, EXCLUDING “SMS FAST FOLLOWERS”, MILLIONS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1 2010Q3 2010Q1 2011Q3 2011Q1 2012Q3 2012Q1 2013Q3 2013Q1 2014Q3 2014Q1 2015Q3 2015
18 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
MONTHLY ACTIVE USERSSPLIT BY TRADITIONAL MAUS AND SMS FAST FOLLOWERS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
MAUs in millions SMS Fast Followers: Worldwide
19 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
MONTHLY ACTIVE USERSBY GEOGRAPHY
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
USInternational
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015
20 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
MONTHLY ACTIVE USERSSEQUENTIAL GROWTH (EXCLUDING SMS FAST FOLLOWERS), THOUSANDS
Adjustment for one-time loss due to change in third party integrations (iOS 8 impact)
21 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
MONTHLY ACTIVE USERSYEAR ON YEAR GROWTH
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015
22 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
COST PER (AD) ENGAGEMENTYEAR ON YEAR GROWTH
“Average cost-per-engagement (CPE) fell 41% year over year, due primarily to the shift to auto-play video, which delivers more engagement at a much lower average CPE than click-to-play video ads. ” – Twitter earnings call, Q3 2015
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015
23 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
COST PER (AD) ENGAGEMENTQUARTER ON QUARTER GROWTH
“Average cost-per-engagement (CPE) fell 41% year over year, due primarily to the shift to auto-play video, which delivers more engagement at a much lower average CPE than click-to-play video ads. ” – Twitter earnings call, Q3 2015
24 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
AD ENGAGEMENTYEAR ON YEAR GROWTH
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015
25 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
AD ENGAGEMENTQUARTER ON QUARTER GROWTH
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015
26 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
AD REVENUE PER MAU, $TWITTER VS. FACEBOOK
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
Twitter ad revenue per MAU Facebook ad ARPU
27 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
REVENUE PER MAU, $BY GEOGRAPHY
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Revenue per MAU: US Revenue per MAU: Intl
28 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
REVENUE PER MAU, US, $TWITTER VS. FACEBOOK
0
5
10
15
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Twitter revenue per MAU: US Facebook ARPU: US & Canada
29 Source: Twitter reporting, Jackdaw Research analysis
CAPITAL SPENDING$ THOUSANDS (LEFT AXIS), AND CAPITAL INTENSITY (CAPEX/REVENUES)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015
Capex Capital intensity
Jan Dawson Chief Analyst (408) 744-6244 jan@jackdawresearch.com @jandawson
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