united states demographics mr. hyke ahs. the present population of the united states is 310 million...

United States DemographicsUnited States Demographics

Mr. Hyke

AHS

The present population of the

United States is 310 million people

Steep declines in European source countries during the century

1900-1920

13%

34%

3%50%

EuropeAsiaLatin AmericaAfrica

10%

4%

86%

1980-2000

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Fastest Growing, 1990 - 2000

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Immigrant Magnet States

Comparative Fertility Rates

Total Fertility Rate

Hispanic 3.2

Black and American

Indian

2.1

Replacement Level 2.1

Asian 2.0

White 1.9Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2002

Total Fertility Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2001

Black and Latino populations are nearly equal in size

Source: Census 2000 SF1

U.S Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2000

10 “Classic” Immigrant Magnet Metros

90 - 99 Immigrants

1. New York ------------- 1,408,543

2. Los Angeles ----------- 1,257,925 3. San Francisco --------- 494,189 4. Miami ------------------ 420,488 5. Chicago ----------------- 363,662 6. Washington ------------ 267,175 7. Houston ---------------- 214,262 8. Dallas-Fort ------------- 173,500 9. San Diego -------------- 159,69110. Boston ------------------ 137,634

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

Demographic Components, 1990s

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

California New YorkNew York TexasTexas

7.4

10.4

-7.2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

6.0 5.3

-10.2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

4.13.3

10.1

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase

1990 - 2000 Greatest Hispanic Gainers

1. Los Angeles 1,819,370

2. New York 992,185

3. Chicago 600,810

4. Dallas 594,836

5. Houston 575,098

6. Miami 501,543

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

KeyBelow 12.5%12.5% - 25.0%Above 25.0%

Hispanic Concentration2000

Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute

1990 – 2000 Greatest Asian Gainers

1. New York 710,809

2. Los Angeles 611,201

3. San Francisco 554,326

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Up- and Coming Asian Growth Magnets

% Growth

1. Las Vegas 286 2. Atlanta 200 3. Austin 175 4 . Orlando 171 5. Tampa 149 6. Phoenix 149 7. Dallas 133 8. Portland OR 119 9. Minn. - St. Paul 11810. Denver 11511.Miami 113

2000 Populations > 50,000

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

KeyBelow 4.3%4.3% - 10.0%Above 10.0%

Asian Concentration2000

Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute

1990 - 2000 Major Black Growth Centers

% Growth

1. Orlando 62.2 2. Atlanta 61.9 3. Miami 43.4 4. Tampa 36.8 5. Charlotte 34.7 6. Columbus, OH 34.6 7. Jacksonville, FL 34.3 8. Boston 33.8 9. Raleigh 33.110. Dallas 31.7

(Over 200,000 blacks and 30% growth)

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

KeyBelow 12.6%12.6% - 25.0%Above 25.0%

Black Concentration2000

Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute

1990 - 2000 Greatest White Decliners

1. Los Angeles -843.065

2. New York -679,790

3. San Francisco -269,844

4. Philadelphia -199,359

5. Miami -118,506

6. Chicago -93,794

7. San Diego -84,448

8. Pittsburgh -81,900

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

KeyBelow 69.1%69.1% - 85.0%Above 85.0%

White Concentration2000

Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute

KeyWhiteBlackHispanicAsianAm. IndianMulti-ethnic

America’s Patchwork Quilt

Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute

"Multiple Melting Pot”Typology of US States

Melting Pot States

White-Black Gainers

Mostly White Gainers

Slow Growth/Declining

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

“Melting Pot” Metro Profiles, 2000

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

12%

1%

40%

39%

8%

Whites

Los Angeles Miami Houston

Blacks Hispanics

2%1%

40%36%

21%

5%1%

29%48%

17%

Asians American Indians

Household Changes in the Next DecadeHousehold Changes in the Next Decade

1,140,031

1,922,839

6,548,652

3,607,427

-3,500,679

217,355

75 +

65 - 74

55 - 64

45 - 54

35 - 44

24 - 34

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

The End

Race Profiles for Age GroupsL.A. County, 1998

Under Age 18Under Age 18 Age 18 - 64Age 18 - 64 AgeAge 65 + 65 +

22 % 34% 58 %

white black Indian Asian Hispanic

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

CaliforniaProjected Race Compositions, 2025

Age 0 - 17Age 0 - 17 Age 18 - 64Age 18 - 64 Age 65 +Age 65 +

25% 34% 52%

white black Indian Asian Hispanic

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

Rest of WestProjected Race Compositions, 2025

Age 0 - 17Age 0 - 17 Age 18 - 64Age 18 - 64 Age 65 +Age 65 +

58% 67% 81%

white black Indian Asian Hispanic

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

GeorgiaProjected Race Compositions, 2025

Age 0 - 17Age 0 - 17 Age 18 - 64Age 18 - 64 Age 65 +Age 65 +

53 % 60 % 73 %

NH-White NH-Black NH- Indian NH-AsianHispanic

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

United StatesProjected Race Compositions,

2025

Under Age 18Under Age 18

52 %

white black Indian Asian Hispanic

62 %

Age 18 -64Age 18 -64

76 %

Age 65+Age 65+

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

www.census.gov

www.ameristat.org

www.ssdan.net

www.frey-demographer.org

Useful Websites

Selected New Sunbelt and Old Sunbelt StatesGrowth 1980s and 1990s

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

80s

90s

Nevada

Colorado

Georgia

Florida

Texas

California

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

New Sunbelt, Immigrant Magnet, and Heartland States

New SunbeltImmigrant MagnetsHeartland States

Domestic Migrant Magnet Metros

90 - 99 Net Migration 1. Atlanta ----------------

498,283 2. Phoenix ---------------

396,092 3. Las Vegas -------------

394,331 4. Dallas ------------------

235,611 5. Denver -----------------

200,658 6. Portland, OR -----------

198,896 7. Austin ------------------

168,817 8. Orlando ----------------

167,120 9. Tampa -----------------

157,20910. Charlotte --------------

154,320

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

1990 - 2000 Greatest Black Gainers

1. Los Angeles459,582

2. New York450,725

3. Washington DC358,727

4. Miami241,492

5. Chicago181,101

6. Dallas176,293

7. Philadelphia162,932

8. Houston142,304

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Demographic Components, 1990s

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

Colorado GeorgiaGeorgia PennsylvaniaPennsylvania

1.9

8.6

12.2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1.6

8.110.0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0.9

-2.1

2.0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase

Metro and Nonmetro Residence, 2000

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

23%

47%

30%

11%

25%

64%

Large Metro Small Metro Non-Metro

White Non-White

City, Suburb, Nonmetro Residence, 2000

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

23% 23%

54%

11%

41%48%

City Suburb Non Metro

White Non-White

International & Domestic Migration 1990s

InternationalInternationalDomesticDomestic

CaliforniaCalifornia Rest of WestRest of West

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

Population Change By Race , 1990s

89,484

4,564

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

white black Indian Asian Hispanic

California Rest of West

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Migration by Education AttainmentCalifornia 1990 - 99

Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14Domestic Migration

Immigration

Less than High School

HS Grad Some College College Grads

Education Attainment by Race Los Angeles Metro 1999

Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute

Age 25 - 64

Less than High School

HS Grad Some College College Grads

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Hispanic Education Attainment Los Angeles 1999

Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute

Age 25 - Age 25 - 6464Native

BornArrived Before 1980

Arrived Since 1980

Less than High School

HS Grad Some College College Grads

Race Profiles for Occupations Los Angeles 1999

Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute

Professional

& Mgrs

Clerical & Sales

Skilled Blue

Collar

Unskilled & Services

Black Indian HispanicWhite Asian

Race Profiles for Family’s IncomeLos Angeles 1999

Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute

Black Indian HispanicWhite Asian

Upper 25 %

Second 25 %

Third 25 %

Lower 25 %

Home-Ownership by RaceLos Angeles Metro 1999

Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute

WhiteWhite

63 %

Owners Renter

BlackBlack

50 %

AsianAsian

47 %

HispanicHispanic

41 %

Hispanic Home-Ownership Los Angeles Metro 1999

Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute

Native BornNative Born

56 %

Owners Renter

Arrived Before 1980Arrived Before 1980Arrived Since 1980Arrived Since 1980

50 % 21.6 %

The Senior ExplosionProjected Senior Growth, 2000-2025

60% and below

Over 100 %81 % - 100 %60% ~80%

Percent Senior Growth

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

Child & Elderly Dependency RateUnited States 1995 - 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 2005 2015 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 2005 2015 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 2005 2015 2025

WhitesWhites HispanicsHispanics AsiansAsians

Child Elderly

Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute

”Non-Whites among Adults and Children, 2000

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Over 40% 25% to 40% Under 25%

Adults Children

Largest “Racial Generation Gaps”

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

State AdultsChildren

Arizona 31% 50%

New Mexico 51% 67%

California 49% 65%

Nevada 31% 46%

Texas 44% 57%

% Non-Whites

Smallest “Racial Generation Gaps”

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

State AdultsChildren

Vermont 3% 5%

Maine 3% 5%

West Virginia 5% 7%

New Hampshire 4% 7%

Kentucky 10% 14%

% Non-Whites