using sas predictive modeling to investigate the asthma’s patient future hospitalization risk....
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Using SAS Predictive Modeling to Investigate the Asthma’s Patient
Future hospitalization Risk.Yehia H. Khalil, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY,US
presented by:
XxxxxxxDSCI 5240
Aim
• Develop a predictive model to forecast future Asthma hospitalization
Asthma
• A chronic inflammatory disorder of the airways
• 21 million Americans diagnosed
• Hospitalization rate growing (more than a million cases a year)
• Costs for Asthma: $14 billion
Predictive modeling
• Ability to incorporate any type of variable into analysis
• Dynamic; can easily accommodate any information to adjust model
SAS SEMMA methodology
• Sample
• Explore
• Modify
• Model
• Access
Source of 2009 Dataset
• Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
• California Health Interview Survey
Survey
• 47,614 adults
• 3,379 adolescents
• 8,945 children
Useful Parameters
• Demographics: age, race, marital status
• Health Behaviors: physical activities, fast food, alcohol consumption
• Health Conditions other than Asthma
• Health Insurance
• Poverty Level
• Emergency preparedness module: medication
• Mental or Emotional Condition
Fig. 4 Analysis Diagram
note:
• 40% training
• 30% testing
• 30% validation
Conclusion
• General health conditions, psychological distress and poverty level
affect future hospitalization risk
• Rx coverage and patient disability influence taking medication
regularly and can increase future hospitalization risk
• It is possible to enhance interventions, programs and alternatives to
avoid future hospitalizations
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