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Vail Town CouncilVail Economic Advisory Council
Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
Ralf Garrison
Quarterly Market/Research Report:- Orientation/History
- Econometrics
- Summer Review, Winter Outlook
-Transient Inventory Study Synopsys
1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. What’s Next?
Index
2
Who we are…
3
MTNWEST
• Aspen
• Avon, Colorado
• Breckenridge
• Big Sky
• Beaver Creek
• Copper
• Gunnison/Crested Butte
• Keystone
• Mt Bachelor
• Mammoth Lakes
• Jackson Hole
• North Lake Tahoe
• Snowmass
• Steamboat
• Park City Area
• Summit County, CO
• Telluride
• Vail
• Winter Park
SUPPLY
DEMAND
P.C.
Agent
ATTRACTONSki, Golf, EventsConference, Rentals
A
TRANSPORTATIONPlane, Car, Boat
T
Call Center
Cloud
Consumer
Mobile
6
Package/Sell
Shop/BuyCustomer
Data
ProductData
Fulfill/Process
24 properties representing 2,509 units
63% of total community census
Vail Property Participation
7
Sitzmark Lodge
Sonnenalp Resort of Vail
The Sebastian
The Wren
Tivoli Lodge
Vail International
Vail Mountain Lodge
Vail Racquet Club
Vail Spa Condominiums
Vail Marriott
The Lodge at Vail
The Ritz-Carlton Residences
24 Data Submitting Properties
8
Arrabelle at Vail Square
Destination Resorts Vail
Vail Cascade Condos
Vail Cascade Resort & Spa
Evergreen Lodge at Vail
Four Seasons Resort Vail
Lion Square Lodge
Lodge at Lionshead
Lodge Tower
Manor Vail Resort
Montaneros
Vail’s DMX Participation
9
OTHER PRODUCTS/SVCS
• Economic Report – 2 x Annually
• Council/EAC Seasonal Presentations
• Proposed: 2016
• Group vs FIT
• New Special Event Calendar – Overlay
• Vail-Only Research Web Portal
• Further Grey Market Inventory
CURRENT VAIL PRODUCTS
• Intelligence Pack
• Reservation Activity Outlook
• Executive Summary
• Condo vs. Hotel
• Group vs. FIT ( Proposed)
• Multi Destination Comparative
• Multi Destination Comparative –
Enhanced
• Daily Occupancy Report (DOR)
• Mid-month Summer (4 out of 6 months)
• Mid-month Winter
• Industry Overlay
• Event Calendar Overlay
• 45 Day Retail Report
• Guest Profiler
• School Break Report (Vail Resorts Only)
• Transient Inventory Study
• Economic Indicators & Summary
• Taxable Sales Report
• Presentations
1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. Miscellaneous
Index
10
Econometrics• Consistent Economic Recovery since 2009• …”Rising Tide” for Discretionary Spending• All Key Indicators have been positive• But Recent Volatility is of concern• Specifically:
• Slowing Growth Globally• Geo-Political Uncertainty/Terrorism• Strong Dollar is International Headwind• Low Oil/Fuel is Good and Bad
• Future: Uncertain – Warrants Attention
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Ind
ex(B
ase
year
an
d c
alc.
met
ho
d v
arie
s b
y se
ries
)
Month
Consumer Confidence Index January 2007 - November 2015
Monthly Values, 6-Month Aggregate Averageand 12 Month Moving Average Trend
Average 6 mo
Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Confidence Index (ConferenceBoard))
Produced by DestiMetrics; Source: The Conference Board
12
Econometrics
13
Econometrics: CCI: 2014-2015
Growth slows, Volatility Rises…..
93.1
103.8
98.8
101.4
94.394.6
99.8
91.0
101.3
102.6
99.1
90.4
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
Ind
ex
Month
Consumer Confidence Index 2014/15
Source: Conference Board
`
14
Sep 2014: $1 CAD = $0.92 USD
Sep 2015: $1 CAD = $0.75 USD
Sep 2014: €1 EUR = $1.30 USD
+18%
Econometrics
+23%
Sep 2015: €1 EUR = $1.10 USD
1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. Miscellaneous
Index
15
16
Industry:Summer Benchmarking Index
26.8%
21.6%
57.3%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07
Industry Summer Performance: 2008 - 2014 vs 2007
Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Industry % Change ADR vs 2007 Industry % Change Revenue vs 2007
17
Vail:Summer Benchmarking Index
13.3%
27.6%
44.3%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07
Vail Summer Performance: 2008 - 2014 vs 2007
Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Vail % Change ADR vs 2007 Vail % Change Revenue vs 2007
Summer 2015May - October
18
Year over Year% Change in
INDUSTRY-WIDE Vail
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
7% 3%
4%
11%
5%
8%
Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Summer 2015
Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
19
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
25
-Ap
r-15
2-M
ay-15
9-M
ay-15
16
-May-1
5
23
-May-1
5
30
-May-1
5
6-Ju
n-1
5
13
-Jun
-15
20
-Jun
-15
27
-Jun
-15
4-Ju
l-15
11
-Jul-15
18
-Jul-15
25
-Jul-15
1-A
ug-15
8-A
ug-15
15-A
ug-1
5
22
-Au
g-15
29
-Au
g-15
5-Sep
-15
12
-Sep-15
19
-Sep-15
26
-Sep-15
3-O
ct-15
10-O
ct-15
17
-Oct-1
5
24
-Oct-1
5
31
-Oct-1
5O
ccu
pan
cy
Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
2015 YTD vs. 2014 YTD as of 10/31 (22properties)
2015 - as of 10/31/15 (22 propertiesincluded)
2014 - as of 10/31/14 (22 propertiesincluded)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
25
-Ap
r-15
2-M
ay-15
9-M
ay-15
16
-May-1
5
23
-May-1
5
30
-May-1
5
6-Ju
n-1
5
13
-Jun
-15
20
-Jun
-15
27
-Jun
-15
4-Ju
l-15
11
-Jul-15
18
-Jul-15
25
-Jul-15
1-A
ug-15
8-A
ug-15
15-A
ug-1
5
22
-Au
g-15
29
-Au
g-15
5-Sep
-15
12
-Sep-15
19
-Sep-15
26
-Sep-15
3-O
ct-15
10-O
ct-15
17
-Oct-1
5
24
-Oct-1
5
31
-Oct-1
5O
ccu
pan
cy
Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
2014 - historic actuals (22 properties included)
Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Summer 2015
Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
20
1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. Miscellaneous
Index
21
“Industry:”Winter Benchmarking Index
22
-2.5%
7.1%
4.6%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08
“
Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
Vail: Winter Benchmarking Index
23
-0.9%
21.5%
20.4%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08
Vail Winter Performance: 2008/09 - 2014/15 vs 2007/08 Benchmark
Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
24
Vail: Occupancy OTB – Winter 15/16Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
Industry
+1%
Vail
-8%
25
Vail: ADR OTB – Winter 15/16Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
Industry
+2%
Vail+5%
26
Vail: RevPAR OTB – Winter 15/16Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
Industry
+3%
Vail
-3%
Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 15/16Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
27
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
31
-Oct-1
5
7-N
ov-1
5
14
-No
v-15
21
-No
v-15
28
-No
v-15
5-D
ec-15
12
-Dec-1
5
19
-Dec-1
5
26
-Dec-1
5
2-Jan
-16
9-Jan
-16
16
-Jan-1
6
23
-Jan-1
6
30
-Jan-1
6
6-Feb
-16
13
-Feb-16
20
-Feb-16
27
-Feb-16
5-M
ar-16
12
-Mar-1
6
19
-Mar-1
6
26
-Mar-1
6
2-A
pr-16
9-A
pr-16
16
-Ap
r-16
23
-Ap
r-16
30
-Ap
r-16
Occ
up
ancy
Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties)
2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included)
2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included)
2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included)
Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 15/16Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
28
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
31
-Oct-1
5
7-N
ov-1
5
14
-No
v-15
21
-No
v-15
28
-No
v-15
5-D
ec-15
12
-Dec-1
5
19
-Dec-1
5
26
-Dec-1
5
2-Jan
-16
9-Jan
-16
16
-Jan-1
6
23
-Jan-1
6
30
-Jan-1
6
6-Feb
-16
13
-Feb-16
20
-Feb-16
27
-Feb-16
5-M
ar-16
12
-Mar-1
6
19
-Mar-1
6
26
-Mar-1
6
2-A
pr-16
9-A
pr-16
16
-Ap
r-16
23
-Ap
r-16
30
-Ap
r-16
Occ
up
ancy
Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties)
2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included)
2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included)
Easter 2015
Easter 2016
2015 World Alpine Ski Championships
FBLA 2015
FBLA 2016
Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 14/15Data as of Oct. 31, 2015
29
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
31
-Oct-1
5
7-N
ov-1
5
14
-No
v-15
21
-No
v-15
28
-No
v-15
5-D
ec-15
12
-Dec-1
5
19
-Dec-1
5
26
-Dec-1
5
2-Jan
-16
9-Jan
-16
16
-Jan-1
6
23
-Jan-1
6
30
-Jan-1
6
6-Feb
-16
13
-Feb-16
20
-Feb-16
27
-Feb-16
5-M
ar-16
12
-Mar-1
6
19
-Mar-1
6
26
-Mar-1
6
2-A
pr-16
9-A
pr-16
16
-Ap
r-16
23
-Ap
r-16
30
-Ap
r-16
Occ
up
ancy
Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included)
1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. Miscellaneous
Index
30
Purpose
31
Track changes in inventory due to Vail’s
redevelopment
Realize Vail’s lodging supply & capacity
Understand Inventory Mix:
Condos vs. Hotels
Lodging Quality
Attempt to Quantify Rent By Owner Market
Note: preliminary report presented in
October then refined and now final.
3,706
3,954 3,823
3,892
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2009 2011 2015 2016
2009
2011
2015
2016
YOY Change in Professionally Managed Units
32
NEW INVENTORY
1. Four Seasons 2. Ritz Carlton 3. Solaris4. Landmark5. Lion Square
Total: +248
LOSS of INVENTORY1. Lionshead Inn2. Roost Lodge
Total: -152
NEW INVENTORY
1. The Lion
Total: +79
NEW INVENTORY PRE 2009:1. The Sebastian2. One Willow Bridge Road3. Arrabelle at Vail Square
1,781
1,843
1990
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Platinum Gold Silver Bronze
Units by Lodging Quality Assurance Rating (restated)
33
• Inspections conducted by Vail Valley Partnership.
• Based on individual interior unit inspections, not common
areas or amenities
• Unique to Vail Valley and not universal
Findings:Professionally Managed..
34
• Evolution in in mix of properties
• Increase in Condos
• Decrease in Hotels
• Lionshead inventory continues to grow
• 93% are Platinum or Gold
• Comp Set:
• Aspen declining/Snowmass steady
• Breckenridge – Continues to grow inventory
• Increase in RBO units in both communities
Hotels
Transient Inventory by Property/Unit Type
35
Condos
Private
Homes
Time
Share
Rent By Owner
Rent By Owner
Rent By Owner:Consolidator/Distributor:Major Players
36
VRBO
Airbnb
HomeAway.com
Hotels
The Vacation Rental Landscape:
Current Status: Complex
37
Condos
Private
Homes
Time
Share
Rent By Owner
VRBO
Airbnb
HomeAway.com
Cautions!“Grey Market” is…. Not black or white
38
• RBO market quantification is “ inconclusive”
• Many RBO are occasional/inconsistent
• Duplication:• Professionally managed units are listed
• Same unit listed on multiple sites
• Same unit listed by both homeowner & PMC
• Timeshare weeks are listed
• Accuracy of Information• Units inaccurately listed as located in Vail
• Inconsistency of available “warm beds”
• BUT: New Opportunities Exist in 2016: Re-visit is
being recommended.
RBO Units Counts
39
1,036957
383
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
VRBO.com HomeAway.com Airbnb.com
• VRBO/Homeaway.com dominate, but are duplicative
• Airbnb (whole unit) rentals are smaller but growing
• Other similar services are increasingly popular
YOY Changes of units listed on VRBO.com
40
410
553
1036
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2009 2011 2015
All R.B.O channels have grown significantly
But rate of growth appears to be slowing
1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. What’s Next?
Index
41
Wild Cards-What Next?
42
43www.assembly.destimetrics.com
Thank you!
44
#DMXWinterOutlook
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