verification of lm @ dwd ulrich damrath & ulrich pflüger

Verification of LM @ DWD

Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification activities

• Operational verification– surface weather elements (SYNOP)– precipitation (high density network)– verification of vertical profiles using TEMPs

and AMDARs

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification activities

• Preoperational verification & research– verification of LME– verification of precipitation forecasts using the

pattern recognition method by Ebert– suggestion about common verification

procedures in the future

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 2 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 10 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of scores for QPF over Germany

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H < 800 m

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H > 800 m

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts DJF 2004/05 00 UTC H < 800 m

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts MAM 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJ 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of GME

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2002

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2003

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2004

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 1

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 2

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 3

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 4

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Geopotential17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

27.09.2003

New GME

27.09.2003

New GME

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Wind Velocity17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

27.09.2003

New GME

27.09.2003

New GME

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Temperature17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

27.09.2003

New GME

27.09.2003

New GME

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Relative Humidity16.09.2003

Prognostic Cloud Ice

16.09.2003

Prognostic Cloud Ice

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, RMSE, ...

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, BIAS, ...

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE, ...

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE, ...

2.39

2.56

2.34

2.53

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME experiment, BIAS, ...

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Using ODB as a tool within verification

• Observational Data Base: data base filled with observations (used during assimilation cycle) and differences between observations and forecasts

• requires special software to install and to run• enables introduction of sql-statements to extract

observations and differences FC-OBS under any conditions (i.e. get surface temperature values [or errors] over the Alps in cases if inversion occures in Payerne between 1000 and 850 hPa)

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

That‘s all,thank you for

your attention!