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Violence in Argentina Trends and Questions
Diego M. Fleitas Ortiz de Rozas
Msc in Public Policy (Oxford) Sociologist and Lawyer (UBA), Director Asocación para Políticas Públicas
Buenos Aires – Celiv- Dicember 2014
Homicide Data Sources
• Modern Sources
– Health Data (CIE 10) – Ministry of Justice (SNIC), based on police records – Local sources
• Historical Sources – Anuario Demográfico/Atlas sanitario. Circa 1900, – Anuario Estadístico de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires – Registro Nacional de Reincidentes y Estadística Criminal y
Carcelaria 1933 – Memorias del Departamento de Policía, from 1868, – Memorias Penitenciaria Nacional from 1877 – Prision census – Census
Argentina: Homicides and Suicides Evolution Quantities - Health and Justice (Snic) Data Sources
2731
3002
3216
2607 2668 2653
3048
3453
2876
2259
2115 2052 2071
2305
3173 3262
3570 3693 3570
4630
3837
2996 2847
2669 2789 2847
2935
2760 2794 2888
2578
2658 2735
3123
2735
3300
3377
3204 3161 3206 3140
3463 3314
3487 3563
3875
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Homicides (Justice) Homicides (Health) Suicides (Health)
Suicides
Homicides Health
Homicides Justice
7.2 Homicide Rate
8.3 Suicide Rate
A glimpse of the Past
• Buenos Aires City
1890 - 44 cases 8,5 rate per 100,000
1900 - 86 cases 10 rate
1910 - 118 cases 9,3 rate
• Buenos Aires Province
1909 - 443 cases - 22 rate (aprox)
• Most cases were related to quarrels, personal or political violence, just a very small proportion was caused by robberies.
• Lower quality of health services probably provoked higher levels of mortality , with fewer violent events
Sources: Blacwelder et al 1984, Johnson &Wolfson, 1989, Caimari,2012, Slatta 1980
Within Argentina
there are many
different stories
going on…
Homicides by Province in
2012
Quantities, Rates and % difference
with 2011 (Health Data)
Cantidad Tasa % Dif 12vs11
Capital Federal 190* 6,6 -20,2Buenos Aires 1.314 8,4 8,8Catamarca 11 3 37,5Cordoba 141 4,3 -1,4Corrientes 41 4,1 5,1Chaco 63 6 -10Chubut 80 15,7 60Entre Rios 82 6,6 46,4Formosa 50 9,4 13,6Jujuy 24 3,6 -27,3La Pampa 15 4,7 -16,7La Rioja 8 2,4 -33,3Mendoza 137 7,9 3Misiones 89 8,1 -5,3Neuquen 52 9,4 8,3Rio Negro 49 7,7 -5,8Salta 68 5,6 54,5San Juan 18 2,6 -33,3San Luis 14 3,2 16,7Santa Cruz 18 6,6 -5,3Santa Fe 309 9,7 -1Sgo.del Estero 36 4,1 -26,5Tucuman 72 5 -12,2T.Del Fuego 5 3,9 66,7
Homicide Evolution Selected Provinces – Constant numbers, 1997 base 100 (Health Data)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Prov BsAs Córdoba Santa Fe Chubut
Prov. Bs. As
175
Santa Fe
67
102
77
88
Chubut Córdoba
145
133
67
Even within Provinces there is a strong variation… Homicides Rates and % Change in Selected Deparments of Buenos Aires Province
Source: Own elaboration with Health data
Tasa Anual
Promedio
San Fernando 4,3 -56,3 ↓
Tigre 6,1 -41 ↓
San Isidro 6,5 -40,6 ↓
Malvinas Argentinas 7,1 -38,7 ↓
Almirante Brown 7,2 -16,7 ↓
Lomas de Zamora 11,2 -0,7 ≈
San Vicente 3,4 33,3 ↑
La Matanza 9,6 34,4 ↑
Marcos Paz 6,5 40 ↑
Gral. Pueyrredón 13,7 66,7 ↑
MunicipioVar %
07-8 /11-12
Argentina: Evolution of Homicides, Inequality, Poverty and Unemployment. 1997 base 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gini 1 =10 (Cedlas) Poverty (Cedlas) Unemployment INDEC Homicides (Health)
29%
4.630
21%
0,53
Poverty
Homicides
Unemployment
Gini
Longitudinal relation between Armed Robbery of Cars and Homicides with Firearms in Argentina Quantities and constant numbers. Cesvi data 2001 base 100
In a cross sectional regression among Provinces appeared a relation between armed
Robbery and Firearms Homicides R2 ,375
Relation between Physical Assault of Women (not
linked with robberies) and Alcohol Abuse by Provincies
Additional possible Explanations
• Political, Institutional and Policy Problems
• Increase of alcohol and drugs abuse particularly in young people
• Increase of areas with excluded population and with low State control. Villas Miserias
• Risks groups growth. I.E. Young people who do not study or work
• Increase and violent dynamics in illegal markets and by illegal organizations
• Long term social and cultural changes?
Thank You
www.app.org.ar
Attachments
Relation between Homicides in Buenos Aires City and Unemployment rate in the Metropolitan Area AMBA
1995-2005 2006-2009
No significative
In the whole period (95/09) the R2 is 0,419 sig 0,004 1995 to 2005 has an R2 of 0.483 sig. 0.018 2006 to 2009 has a R2 (negative) of 0.917 sig. 0.42 ( without significance).
Something similar ocurres in the relation between unemployment and other robberies
Relation of Physical Assault with Alcohol Abuse and Robbery by Provinces
Betas Standardized - Population Victim of Armed Robbery ,757, - Alcohol Abuses in Population ,463
R2 ,744,
Evolution of the 18 to 24 years old group, which neither study nor work, in Buenos Aires City and “Gran Buenos Aires” Quantities – Disaggregated by Jurisdiction and if they are Inactive or Unemployed.
25000
45000
65000
85000
105000
125000
145000
165000
185000
205000
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Desocupados e Inactivos CABA Inactivos Granba Desocupados Granba
Evolución de los Niveles de Desigualdad en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires Coeficiente Gini y de Ratio de los Ingresos deciles 1 y 10 de la Población
Fuente: Información y gráfico copiados del Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, 2010
Regression to explain the homicide level by department in the Buenos Aires Province in 2005
• R2 0,581, • Betas
– Demographic Density B s ,552 – NBI ,438,
• R2 0,581, step wise”, cuyo mejor ajuste fue con las variables densidad
demográfica y % de NBI de la población, y cuyo resultado fue un R cuadrado corregido de 0,581, con un Error Típico de la Estimación de 3,46365. Los valores B estandarizados de Densidad y NBI fueron y ,438, respectivamente y en ambos casos con una significancia de 000.
Different Homicide Scope in the Buenos Aires Province depending the data source
Argentina: Inequality, Poverty and Unemployment
4,5 4,4 4,5 4,8 4,9 4,8 5,0 4,9 5,0 5,2 5,3 5,3 5,1 4,9 4,8 4,7 4,6 4,6 4,4
5,9 6,7 6,5
9,6 11,0
10,0 11,5
12,1
14,2
18,7
29,2
24,3
19,7
15,4
12,5
9,2
8,5
8,0
6,6
6,9
9,9 10,7
18,4 17,1
16,1
13,2 14,5
15,4 16,4
21,5 20,4
14,4 13,0
11,4 9,8
8,4
8,4 8,3 7,4 7,1
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gini 1 =10 (Cedlas) Poverty (Cedlas) Unemployment INDEC
2006 Homicides Bottom Line
Relation between homicides of young women with Analphabetism and Armed Robbery by Provinces
R. Negro 7,7
Chaco 5,4
L. Rioja 5
Tucumán 4,8
Jujuy 4,2
Sgo Del Estero 4,2
Formosa 4,1
CABA 3,7
Corrientes 3,7
Misiones 3,4
Santa Fe 3,3
Bs As 2,9
Mendoza 2,8
L. Pampa 2,5
Córdoba 1,8
Salta 1,8
Chubut 1,7
Neuquén 1,5
Entre Ríos 1,3
S. Juan 1,2
Catamarca 0
San Luís 0
Sta. Cruz 0
Rate 2007/2009
Multivariable Linear Regression R2 de 0,741 Standardized Betas: Analphabetism 0,812 Women Robbed with Arms 0,669
Analphabetism works as a proxy of development, and in the regression excluded other variables due to colinearity
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