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Water: The Environmental Outlook to 2050

Helen Mountford

Deputy Director, OECD Environment Directorate

OECD Global Forum on Environment: Making Water Reform Happen

25-26 October 2011, Paris

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water Chapter

Presentation Outline

• Environmental Outlook: Key trends and projections

Water demand

Water stress

Water pollution

Access to water supply and sanitation

• Key messages and traffic lights

• Policy options: instruments for water policies

• Importance of water pricing

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OECD BRIICS RoW Overall

Growing demand from manufacturing, electricity and domestic use

Water demand will increase by 55% by 2050

Manufacturing Electricity Domestic Overall Irrigation

Facing competing

demands from other sectors, there will be

little scope for expanding irrigation

80% increase

15% decrease

55% increase

400%

130% 140%

-14%

55%

Livestock Irrigation Domestic Manufacturing Electricity

2000 2050

3,500 km3

5,500 km3 Projected Increase in Water Demand by 2050 Drivers of Demand

Water stress

Under the Baseline, the number of people living in river basins under severe water stress is projected to more than double between 2000 -2050 , reaching 3.9 billion people

5 Source: The Environmental Outlook Baseline projections; output from the IMAGE suite of models (PBL)

1.6 1.6

1.3 1.3

3.2 Bn 3.2 Bn

Population living under water stress 2050 (9.2 Bn)

People under no or low water stress

People under medium water stress

People under severe water stress

2000 (6.1 Bn)

3.9 Bn

1.4

3.9 Bn

Nearly half of the world population is projected

to live under severe water stress

OECD BRIICS RoW

2000

2050

= 200MM

Water stress is projected to increase significantly and most of this increase occurs in BRIICS

Brazil

China region

India region

Indonesia

Japan and Korea

Middle East

Oceania

OECD Europe

OECD Nam

Rest Africa

Rest L-Am

Rest SE Asia

Russia region

Southern Africa

Ukraine and C-Asia

1970

Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades

Nitrogen Phosphorus

1 MM 4.5 MM

Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year)

Sewage

Brazil

China region

India region

Indonesia

Japan and Korea

Middle East

Oceania

OECD Europe

OECD Nam

Rest Africa

Rest L-Am

Rest SE Asia

Russia region

Southern Africa

Ukraine and C-Asia

4.5 MM 1 MM

Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades

Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year)

Nitrogen Phosphorus

1970

2000

Sewage Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

Brazil

China region

India region

Indonesia

Japan and Korea

Middle East

Oceania

OECD Europe

OECD Nam

Rest Africa

Rest L-Am

Rest SE Asia

Russia region

Southern Africa

Ukraine and C-Asia

4.5 MM 1 MM

Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades

Nitrogen Phosphorus

1970

2000

2030

Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year)

Sewage Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

Brazil

China region

India region

Indonesia

Japan and Korea

Middle East

Oceania

OECD Europe

OECD Nam

Rest Africa

Rest L-Am

Rest SE Asia

Russia region

Southern Africa

Ukraine and C-Asia

4.5 MM 1 MM

Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades

Nitrogen Phosphorus

1970

2000

2030

2050

Effluent from Nutrients from Wastewater (MM Tonnes Per Year)

Sewage Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

Brazil

China region

India region

Indonesia

Japan and Korea

Middle East

Oceania

OECD Europe

OECD Nam

Rest Africa

Rest L-Am

Rest SE Asia

Russia region

Southern Africa

Ukraine and C-Asia

1970

Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades

Nitrogen Phosphorus

100 Kg 150 Kg

Agriculture

Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture

Brazil

China region

India region

Indonesia

Japan and Korea

Middle East

Oceania

OECD Europe

OECD Nam

Rest Africa

Rest L-Am

Rest SE Asia

Russia region

Southern Africa

Ukraine and C-Asia

100 Kg

Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades

Nitrogen Phosphorus

1970

2000

Agriculture

Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

150 Kg

Brazil

China region

India region

Indonesia

Japan and Korea

Middle East

Oceania

OECD Europe

OECD Nam

Rest Africa

Rest L-Am

Rest SE Asia

Russia region

Southern Africa

Ukraine and C-Asia

150 Kg 100 Kg

Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades

Nitrogen Phosphorus

1970

2000

2030

Agriculture

Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

Brazil

China region

India region

Indonesia

Japan and Korea

Middle East

Oceania

OECD Europe

OECD Nam

Rest Africa

Rest L-Am

Rest SE Asia

Russia region

Southern Africa

Ukraine and C-Asia

150 Kg 100 Kg

Water quality is projected to deteriorate in the coming decades

Nitrogen Phosphorus

1970

2000

2030

2050

Agriculture

Effluent from Nutrient per hectare in Agriculture Increase over previous projection Decrease over previous projection

Arctic Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Indian Ocean

Medit + Black

Pacific Ocean

Level of pollution discharge in Oceans/Seas will increase in the coming decades Phosphorus Discharge (Tonnes per Year)

1950

1970

2000

2050

Nitrogen Discharge (Tonnes per Year)

Arctic Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Indian Ocean

Medit + Black

Pacific Ocean

20 MM 5MM

2030

1990 2010 2030 2050

1990 2010 2030 2050

Significant efforts have been made in improving access to improved sources of water, but…

240Mn

830MM

Urban

Rural

Due to population growth and urbanisation,

a large population will continue to lack access to

improved sources of water…

1990 2010 2030 2050

BRIICS OECD

RoW

1990 2010 2030 2050

… with RoW being mainly affected around 2050

Additional 1.8 bn provided access (1990-2008)

1990 2010 2030 2050

1990 2010 2030 2050

People lacking access to improved sanitation will continue to be a challenge

Urban

Rural

Number of people lacking improved sanitation is

projected to still be almost 1.5 billion in

2050… 1990 2010 2030 2050

BRIICS

OECD

RoW

1990 2010 2030 2050

… with 60% of them living in the ROW

1.5Bn

2.45Bn

Key messages and traffic lights

Traffic light Key messages

Number of people living in river basins under severe water stress

Increase in water demand

Groundwater abstraction

Number of people at risk of floods

Restoration of surface and groundwater quality in OECD countries

Deterioration of surface and groundwater quality outside the OECD

Improved access to water supply and sanitation in BRIICS

Number of people without access to water and sanitation in developing countries

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Policy options

Policy option Measures/instruments

Incentivise water use efficiency Pricing, cut back perverse subsidies, coherence

Invest in water storage innovatively Assess conflicts with environment

Reconsider water allocation mechanisms Water rights reform, pricing

Mitigate water related disasters Restore natural buffers, reconsider settlement

Improve WW treatment, reduce run-off Encourage R & D and speed-up diffusion

Accelerate WSS in developing countries Innovative expansion, PPP, ODA

Improve water governance for coherence Engage stakeholders, share innovative models

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The importance of pricing: water conservation (% ownership against water fee structure)

Source: OECD (2011), Greening Household Behaviour: The Role of Public Policy

Thank you!

www.oecd.org/water

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