westerling et al, 2006 science. late snowmelt yearsearly snowmelt years 1972 - 2003, nps, usfs &...
Post on 04-Jan-2016
219 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Westerling et al,2006 Science
Late Snowmelt Years Early Snowmelt Years
1972 - 2003, NPS, USFS & BIA Fires over 1000 acres
Other Large WildfiresHave Not ChangedSubstantially
Since the mid-1980s
Large Forest WildfiresHave Increased ~300%
Forest Fires & Temperature
Correlation: 0.70
Correlation: 0.08
Grass/Shrub Fires and Temperature
Correlation: 0.56
Forest Fires & Timing of Spring
If lilacs bloomIf lilacs bloombefore ~May 20before ~May 20……
Timing of Springsnowmelt in westernstreamflow gauges is a regional signal,
correlated with Forest Wildfire
Most forest firesoccur in years withearly Springs…
… at elevationsaround 7000 feet
Early - Late Oct to May Precip
Early - Late Mar to Aug Temp
largest vulnerable forest area
biggest increasein wildfires
risks least affected bysuppression
less vulnerableto warming
most affected bysuppression
vulnerable
affected bysuppression
Large forest fires increased, but total ignitions did not.
top related