what do we know about ‘social licence’ and ‘nimby’? jean-sébastien rioux spp-hei summer...
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What do we know about ‘social licence’ and ‘NIMBY’?
Jean-Sébastien RiouxSPP-HEI Summer School on Energy &
EnvironmentMay 29, 2015
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Lesson Plan
• What is NIMBY and how does it relate to ‘social
license’?
• Benchmarking some data: what do Canadians
think of various projects?
• Can companies and governments overcome
NIMBY-ism?
• Concluding thoughts
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Methodological notes
• These are the findings of an Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) poll conducted from October 30th to November 2nd, 2014.
• This online survey of 2,000 Canadian adults was conducted on INNOVATIVE’s Canada 20/20 national panel.
• The Canada 20/20 Panel is recruited from a wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region and language characteristics of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample.
• INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey and panel members can only complete a particular survey once.
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The Issues (Oct. 30 – Nov. 2, 2014)
Taxes
The economy
Health
The cost of living
Terrorism
Ethical problems in government
The environment
Canada's role in the world
CrimeSocial issues such as poverty or home-
lessnessImmigration
Equal opportunities for women
Post secondary education
3%
2%
2%
2%
3%
5%
3%
4%
4%
4%
5%
7%
6%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
3%
2%
2%
2%
3%
4%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
3%
4%
5%
6%
5%
6%
3%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
3%
3%
4%
5%
6%
5%
7%
4%
4%
3%
4%
4%
5%
6%
5%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
11%
9%
9%
10%
10%
13%
13%
13%
15%
15%
16%
16%
15%
9%
10%
10%
10%
11%
10%
10%
11%
11%
11%
11%
10%
12%
13%
15%
16%
15%
15%
14%
15%
16%
15%
14%
13%
11%
13%
16%
19%
18%
18%
16%
13%
15%
15%
15%
14%
11%
12%
11%
14%
14%
15%
15%
11%
11%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
10%
8%
21%
19%
19%
18%
18%
17%
14%
14%
11%
11%
10%
10%
8%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pay no attentio
n
Follow very closely
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Provincial support questionGenerally speaking, would your initial reaction be to support or oppose a proposal to build each of the following projects in your province? [RANDOMIZE LIST] Strongly support 1Somewhat support 2Neither support nor oppose 3 Somewhat oppose 4Strongly oppose 5Don’t know 8 NIMB7J. Wind farms placed on pillars in the ocean in coastal water or large lakesNIMB7K. Wind farms located on landNIMB7L. Hydro power from dams that create large reservoirs NIMB7M. Run of River Hydro power that re-direct part of the flow of a stream or river at one point and returns it further downstreamNIMB7P. Electricity generating plants fuelled by municipal wasteNIMB7A. Landfills [NIMB7a.]NIMB7R. Electricity generating plants fuelled by natural gasNIMB7S. Electricity generating plants fuelled by nuclear powerNIMB7T. Liquefied Natural Gas Storage facilitiesNIMB7G. High voltage electricity transmission lines [NIMB7g].NIMB7H. New or expanded highways and bridges [NIMB7h].NIMB7I. Natural gas storage facilities [NIMB7i].NIMB7U. Oil pipelinesNIMB7V. Natural gas pipelinesNIMB7W. Drilling for shale gas
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About 1-in-2 generally support projects, slightly over 1-in-10 are strong opponents; net support decreased 14% between 2013 and 2014
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
46%
46%
43%
40%
44%
43%
39%
17%
16%
16%
17%
14%
16%
12%
23%
23%
23%
24%
24%
26%
29%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
6%
8%
7%
8%
10%
12%
11%
9%
12%
Strong Supporter Soft supporter Consistent Soft Opponent Strong Opponent Series6
+31%
+45%
+41%
+38%
+42%
+48%
+48%
Net Support
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Energy East – Foundation for a new Quebec party?There is a new plan currently being considered to build a new pipeline called Energy East. The pipeline would start in Alberta and then run across Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec to New Brunswick where it would meet the Atlantic Ocean for shipment to Europe and India. Do you support or oppose the Energy East pipeline?
Q
Canada BC GTA Suburbs Québec
Strongly support
11% 8% 7% 6%
Somewhat support
23% 20% 30% 17%
Neither/ DK 34% 42% 33% 39%
Somewhat oppose
14% 13% 19% 18%
Strongly oppose
16% 17% 11% 20%
Net Support 5% -2% +7% -14%
Regions
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LNG, natural gas storage, nuclear, hydro dams most NIMBY prone projects across Canada
Liquefied Natural Gas Storage facilities
Electricity generating plants fuelled by nuclear power
Electricity generating plants fuelled by municipal waste
Landfills
Natural gas pipelines
Wind farms located on land
Wind farms placed on pillars in the ocean in coastal water
New or expanded highways and bridges
-16%
-16%
-16%
-15%
-14%
-14%
-13%
-13%
-10%
-9%
-7%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-1%
Canada NIMBY factor: (Net Support in Community)–(Net support in Province)
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Public Segmentation: Who are Opponents, Supporters and the Persuadable Public?
Persuadable Public
Segmenting the Public: Values
• NOPE (Nowhere On Planet Earth)
• BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone)
• NIMBY (Not In My BackYard)
Need
Orientation
Core Supporters
Core Opponents
Nothing proponents say or do will influences this group’s opinion towards the project
Nothing opponents say or do will influences this group’s opinion towards the project
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Public Opinion Hurdles
Need?
Persuadable Public
Opponents Supporters
?? ? ?? ?
? ?? ?
?
Best Option?
Fewest People?
Smallest Impact?
Fair Process?
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Five Pillars to Building Social Permission
1. Your goal is permission, not support. It is a rare neighbor who will support a LULU, but they may accept it.
2. There is no blank slate. Your audience has existing views that influence what they hear and what they think about it.
3. It’s hard to sell a solution to an unperceived problem. Raising awareness of the problem you are solving is a critical priority from project start to finish.
4. When people know there is an opposing view, it must be addressed to maintain credibility.
5. Don’t let up until you cross the finish line. Elections show even on choices where many people know quite a lot, dramatic change remains possible.
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