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What do we know about ‘social licence’ and ‘NIMBY’?

Jean-Sébastien RiouxSPP-HEI Summer School on Energy &

EnvironmentMay 29, 2015

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Lesson Plan

• What is NIMBY and how does it relate to ‘social

license’?

• Benchmarking some data: what do Canadians

think of various projects?

• Can companies and governments overcome

NIMBY-ism?

• Concluding thoughts

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What is NIMBY and how does it relate to ‘social license’?

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Benchmarking some data: what do Canadians think of various projects?

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Methodological notes

• These are the findings of an Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) poll conducted from October 30th to November 2nd, 2014.

• This online survey of 2,000 Canadian adults was conducted on INNOVATIVE’s Canada 20/20 national panel.

• The Canada 20/20 Panel is recruited from a wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region and language characteristics of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample.

• INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey and panel members can only complete a particular survey once.

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The Issues (Oct. 30 – Nov. 2, 2014)

Taxes

The economy

Health

The cost of living

Terrorism

Ethical problems in government

The environment

Canada's role in the world

CrimeSocial issues such as poverty or home-

lessnessImmigration

Equal opportunities for women

Post secondary education

3%

2%

2%

2%

3%

5%

3%

4%

4%

4%

5%

7%

6%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

3%

4%

5%

6%

5%

6%

3%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

3%

3%

4%

5%

6%

5%

7%

4%

4%

3%

4%

4%

5%

6%

5%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

11%

9%

9%

10%

10%

13%

13%

13%

15%

15%

16%

16%

15%

9%

10%

10%

10%

11%

10%

10%

11%

11%

11%

11%

10%

12%

13%

15%

16%

15%

15%

14%

15%

16%

15%

14%

13%

11%

13%

16%

19%

18%

18%

16%

13%

15%

15%

15%

14%

11%

12%

11%

14%

14%

15%

15%

11%

11%

11%

11%

10%

10%

9%

10%

8%

21%

19%

19%

18%

18%

17%

14%

14%

11%

11%

10%

10%

8%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Pay no attentio

n

Follow very closely

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Provincial support questionGenerally speaking, would your initial reaction be to support or oppose a proposal to build each of the following projects in your province? [RANDOMIZE LIST] Strongly support 1Somewhat support 2Neither support nor oppose 3 Somewhat oppose 4Strongly oppose 5Don’t know 8 NIMB7J. Wind farms placed on pillars in the ocean in coastal water or large lakesNIMB7K. Wind farms located on landNIMB7L. Hydro power from dams that create large reservoirs NIMB7M. Run of River Hydro power that re-direct part of the flow of a stream or river at one point and returns it further downstreamNIMB7P. Electricity generating plants fuelled by municipal wasteNIMB7A. Landfills [NIMB7a.]NIMB7R. Electricity generating plants fuelled by natural gasNIMB7S. Electricity generating plants fuelled by nuclear powerNIMB7T. Liquefied Natural Gas Storage facilitiesNIMB7G. High voltage electricity transmission lines [NIMB7g].NIMB7H. New or expanded highways and bridges [NIMB7h].NIMB7I. Natural gas storage facilities [NIMB7i].NIMB7U. Oil pipelinesNIMB7V. Natural gas pipelinesNIMB7W. Drilling for shale gas

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About 1-in-2 generally support projects, slightly over 1-in-10 are strong opponents; net support decreased 14% between 2013 and 2014

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

46%

46%

43%

40%

44%

43%

39%

17%

16%

16%

17%

14%

16%

12%

23%

23%

23%

24%

24%

26%

29%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

6%

8%

7%

8%

10%

12%

11%

9%

12%

Strong Supporter Soft supporter Consistent Soft Opponent Strong Opponent Series6

+31%

+45%

+41%

+38%

+42%

+48%

+48%

Net Support

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Energy East – Foundation for a new Quebec party?There is a new plan currently being considered to build a new pipeline called Energy East. The pipeline would start in Alberta and then run across Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec to New Brunswick where it would meet the Atlantic Ocean for shipment to Europe and India. Do you support or oppose the Energy East pipeline?

Q

Canada BC GTA Suburbs Québec

Strongly support

11% 8% 7% 6%

Somewhat support

23% 20% 30% 17%

Neither/ DK 34% 42% 33% 39%

Somewhat oppose

14% 13% 19% 18%

Strongly oppose

16% 17% 11% 20%

Net Support 5% -2% +7% -14%

Regions

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LNG, natural gas storage, nuclear, hydro dams most NIMBY prone projects across Canada

Liquefied Natural Gas Storage facilities

Electricity generating plants fuelled by nuclear power

Electricity generating plants fuelled by municipal waste

Landfills

Natural gas pipelines

Wind farms located on land

Wind farms placed on pillars in the ocean in coastal water

New or expanded highways and bridges

-16%

-16%

-16%

-15%

-14%

-14%

-13%

-13%

-10%

-9%

-7%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-1%

Canada NIMBY factor: (Net Support in Community)–(Net support in Province)

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Can companies and governments overcome NIMBY-ism?

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Public Segmentation: Who are Opponents, Supporters and the Persuadable Public?

Persuadable Public

Segmenting the Public: Values

• NOPE (Nowhere On Planet Earth)

• BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone)

• NIMBY (Not In My BackYard)

Need

Orientation

Core Supporters

Core Opponents

Nothing proponents say or do will influences this group’s opinion towards the project

Nothing opponents say or do will influences this group’s opinion towards the project

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Public Opinion Hurdles

Need?

Persuadable Public

Opponents Supporters

?? ? ?? ?

? ?? ?

?

Best Option?

Fewest People?

Smallest Impact?

Fair Process?

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Concluding thoughts

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Five Pillars to Building Social Permission

1. Your goal is permission, not support. It is a rare neighbor who will support a LULU, but they may accept it.

2. There is no blank slate. Your audience has existing views that influence what they hear and what they think about it.

3. It’s hard to sell a solution to an unperceived problem. Raising awareness of the problem you are solving is a critical priority from project start to finish.

4. When people know there is an opposing view, it must be addressed to maintain credibility.

5. Don’t let up until you cross the finish line. Elections show even on choices where many people know quite a lot, dramatic change remains possible.