what is a new frontier in...

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What is a New Frontier in Exploration?

Jean-Marc Lulin President & CEO

Azimut Exploration Inc

May 2014

AZIMUT

Exploration & Frontier

going from “something known” toward the “unknown”

in this process, a frontier is the limit between the known and unknown

Types of frontiers

Evolution through time

Strategies to move frontiers

Frontier Types

Related to:

Physical space: geography (2 D) and depth (3 D)

Technologies

Concepts

Types de frontières

Des frontières liées à notre façon de se représenter le réel: - nature des paramètres - nombres de paramètres - systèmes de représentation

Tranchées: cartes géologiques

Graduelles: cartes magnétiques

Floues: carte d’altérations

Invisibles !

Frontier Types

Physical space

Depth (third dimension) • Main exploration limitation: vast majority of orebodies found at, or

near, the surface: dramatic drop in efficiency with increasing depth

NW Quebec 0-10m: 70% of mines 0-100m : 90% of mines

• 2 classes: surface discoveries with step by step extensions vs deep

discoveries without surface expression • Limiting factors: access costs, lack of enough critical data to

efficiently discriminate deep target footprint from noise

Frontier Types

Additionnal complexities - Lakes - Unconsolidated, transported cover (glacial overburden, sand) - In situ cover (saprolite, laterite) - Barren rock cover (unconformity, thrust)

Frontier Types

Number of deposits

Depth

Dramatic drop in efficiency with increasing depths

Surface - 500 m - 1000 m

Frontier Types

Physical space

Geography (2 D) • Boundary between:

- mature regions (dynamics of incremental discoveries); and - virgin regions (awaiting for founding discoveries leading to new mining

districts) • Limiting factors: costs of physical access; lack of data; “invisible”

boundaries: mode of representation that does not recognize different levels of knowledge

Gold Prospects

Frontier Types

Technologies

Limiting factors:

- Ability to detect a discriminatory signal from the noise (geophysical, geochemical, remote sensing)

- Analytical sensitivity, data accuracy

- Data processing

Types de frontières

Technologie: Agricola

Agricola, 1556

Frontier Types

Concepts Intellectual construct seeking representation of reality

- Ore deposit models leading to exploration scenarios Limiting factors:

- Scale of work - Data processing - Representation systems

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Frontier Types

Human nature

- Way of thinking and representing one’s own reality: cognitive barriers linked to individual and collective (cultural) boundaries

- Paradoxical role of knowledge - Need knowledge to perform exploration!! but - Knowledge generates its own limits: theories lead to

– or prevent – discoveries - Beliefs: comprehension strongly related to personal

experience

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Azimut-Aurizon exploration team, Rex South project, Nunavik, 2010

Frontier Types

Upon searching the four corners of the world, it appears there are very few real gold mines in northern regions. There are also very few real gold mines in temperate climates. The richest gold mines are in the hottest countries, particularly those without long-established civilised societies, such as Africa and America.

In: Œuvres complètes, Comte de Buffon, 1749 For a number of reasons, of which the most serious is the extremely scattered distribution of precious metal deposits, most enterprises have now disappeared and the number of companies producing gold has been reduced to only two in all of French West Africa.

In: Afrique occidentale française, Exposition Coloniale Internationale de Paris, R. Delavignette, 1931

Frontier Types

Statements partly founded on knowledge “In the James Bay region, there are only showings, no deposits”. Before the Eleonore discovery “Labrador has been extensively prospected; if we go there, we will waste our time”. Before the Voisey’s Bay discovery “Diamond exploration has been going on for 40 years in Canada; there is nothing; this story is certainly purely promotional”. At the time of the Ekati discovery

Frontier Types

“Des préjugés qui ont retardés les progrès de la géologie” “Review of the causes which have retarded the progress of Geology” In: Principles of Geology (Principes de géologie) Charles Lyell, 1830

Changing Frontiers

As a function of time

Gradual - Resulting from an evolution - Incremental accumulation of knowledge: regional surveys in poorly

known territories - Increase in data density (in situ boundary change) - Data integration

Fast & sharp - Resulting from a breakthrough; boom effect - New territories: MAJOR discovery - New concepts and technologies: PROOF of efficiency

1951 1996

2007

Gradual change

Exploration of new territories

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

20 000

12 000

10 000

8 000

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4 000

2 000

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18 000

16 000

14 000

Virginia

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……………… Virginia’s Press

Release on August 11, 2004

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Fast & sharp change

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Virginia

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Fast & sharp change

Exploration of new territories

Virginia’s Press Release on

August 11, 2004

Changing Frontiers

Efficiency

Depth Surface - 500 m - 1000 m

Moving a technological / conceptual barrier through time

100%

50% Breakthrough Incremental

Strategies

Two observations:

(a) Increasing maturity of mining regions – dramatic decrease in the number of surface discoveries

(b) Decreasing efficiency of technologies and concepts over time, applied to a given territory

At some point, all deposits that can be discovered using a specific technology or concept are discovered

Decreasing efficiency of specific innovations and concepts through time: reveals a decrease in the discovery potential

Strategies

• Exploring new frontiers: no choice! • Preferred approaches:

- Systematic valorization of GIS geoscientific data at the regional scale: predictive mineral potential assessments per commodity (and/or mineral deposit type) at the subprovince scale

- Search for new mineral exploration models applicable to under-explored regions: potential for open-pit deposits (low production cost per tonne), polymetallic deposits (high value per tonne)

Conclusions

• By nature, exploration linked to the concept of frontier, and to uncertainty and risk

• “External” frontiers: related to depth, technological capabilities, data accumulation,…

• “Personal” boundaries: knowledge builds its own boundaries

Conclusions

Finding the right path…

Ideas (and knowledge) Simplexity rather than complexity Mastering large databases New territories (>>deep exploration ) Importing models, including “unconventional”

orebodies

Thank you !