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Which wine are you ?

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT

ENAC

April 8, 2016

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Introduction

Purpose : Estimate the average nb of glasses drinked perweek for an individual

Database : Use of ”Google form” / sample size n=365

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Correlation Matrix

Figure: Part of Correlation Matrix

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Correlation Matrix

Correlated Variables

AGE,STATUS,CHILDREN,EARNINGS,JOB SITUATION

AFRICA,ASIA,AMERICA,EUROPE

QUANTITY,CONSUMPTION FREQ

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Variables Table (1)

Variables - Description Name UnitsAge AGE YearsGender MALE 0..1Born in France FRANCEBIRTH 0..1Location (FR Region/Abroad) REGION 0..12Urban/Countryside CITY 0..1Sport practise freq. SPORT FREQUENCE 0..3Consuming wine CONSUMPTION 0..1Favorite type of wine FAVORITE 0..2Type of sellers PRODUCER 0..1- SUPERMARKET 0..1- SPECIALIZED SHOP 0..1- INTERNET EXIHIBITION 0..1Parents habits TRADITION 0..1

Table: Variables Tables - Part 1

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Variables Table (2)

Variables - Description Name UnitsOther drinked beverages BEER 0..1- STRONG ALCOHOL 0..1- CHAMPAGNE 0..1Oenology skills level KNOWLEDGE 1..4Max. wine bottle expenditure BUDGET 1..4Criterias of choice CRITERIAREGIONS 0..1- PRICE 0..1- TASTE 0..1- DESIGN 0..1Wine/Event NOCONNOTATION 0..1- GIFT 0..1- PARTY 0..1- FAMILYMEAL 0..1- CHILLING 0..1

Table: Variables Tables - Part 2

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Dependant Variable

Y

Y = QUANTITY (nb of glasses/w.)

Too hard to modelize our initial dummy variable : FAVORITE.

An other possible choice : CONSUMPTION FREQ (cf.correlations)

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Linear Regression - EViews

Notable Values

k = 48

R2 = 0.313947

R2

= 0.212230

Figure: Linear regression - Model 1

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Analysis

Too many ”insignificant parameters” to modelize itproperly.

Lack of precision.

⇒ Conclusion : We have to improve our choices to improveour model quality.

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Linear Regression - EViews

Notable Values

k = 29

R2 = 0.305546 < R21

R2

= 0.247675 > R21

Figure: Linear regression - Model 1

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Analysis (1)

Variables Expected ActualAGE + +MALE + +(REGION = 1) + NS(REGION = 2) + +(REGION = 5) + +(REGION = 6) + NS(REGION = 7) + NS(REGION = 8) + NSCITY - -(FAVORITE = 0) - NS(FAVORITE = 2) + +PRODUCER + +INTERNET EXIHIBITION - +

Table: Expected/Actual Effects - Part 1

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Analysis (2)

Variables Expected ActualCHAMPAGNE + -TRADITION + +(KNOWLEDGE = 1) - -(KNOWLEDGE = 2) - -(KNOWLEDGE = 3) + -(KNOWLEDGE = 4) + -(BUDGET = 2) - -(BUDGET = 3) + -(BUDGET = 4) + -CRITERIAREGIONS + +TASTE + NSDESIGN - +FAMILYMEAL - -CHILLING + +

Table: Expected/Actual Effects - Part 2

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

F-Statistic

F-Statistic = 5.279763 > F(29,365-29) (n = 365 and k = 29)

Cl : we reject H0 ⇒ β0,...,β28 = 0, our model is globallysignificant.

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Normality

Figure: Resid. Final Model Histogramm

Analyse

JB = n−kn × JB = 1348

We reject H0.

⇒ We do not have u∼N.

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Hetero-/Homo-scedasticity

White Heteroscedasticity Test

n × R2 = 34.0758 > χ2(29) = 39, 0875 → (α=0.1)

We d.n.r H0.

⇒ We have Homoscedasticity.

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?

Conclusion

First model enhanced.

Other methods (log,squared variables) could have been usedto improve the model.

Some variables have an unexpected marginal effect on thedependant variable.

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Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?