why indicators in etc/acc
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EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed list of CC Proposed list of CC
state and impact state and impact indicatorsindicators
Jelle van Minnen (RIVM)Jelle van Minnen (RIVM)
in cooperation with:in cooperation with:Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)
ETC/ACC-WorkshopETC/ACC-WorkshopCopenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001Copenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001
Proposed list of CC Proposed list of CC
state and impact state and impact indicatorsindicators
Jelle van Minnen (RIVM)Jelle van Minnen (RIVM)
in cooperation with:in cooperation with:Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)
ETC/ACC-WorkshopETC/ACC-WorkshopCopenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001Copenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Why indicators in ETC/ACCWhy indicators in ETC/ACCWhy indicators in ETC/ACCWhy indicators in ETC/ACC Identification of CC state and impact Identification of CC state and impact
indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report)under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report)
Feasibility study is needed on CC Feasibility study is needed on CC indicatorsindicators
To support the process of Integrated To support the process of Integrated Environment AssessmentEnvironment Assessment
Identification of CC state and impact Identification of CC state and impact indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report)under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report)
Feasibility study is needed on CC Feasibility study is needed on CC indicatorsindicators
To support the process of Integrated To support the process of Integrated Environment AssessmentEnvironment Assessment
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Criteria for IndicatorsCriteria for IndicatorsCriteria for IndicatorsCriteria for Indicators Accessible/attractive to the eye Accessible/attractive to the eye Correct to interpret Correct to interpret Representative (issue, area)Representative (issue, area) Regularly updated Regularly updated Reference value Reference value International comparable International comparable Scientifically sound Scientifically sound Consensus on data validity/ methods Consensus on data validity/ methods
Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Sensitive to CC Sensitive to CC (Related to policy process)(Related to policy process) (Applicable in assessments)(Applicable in assessments)
Accessible/attractive to the eye Accessible/attractive to the eye Correct to interpret Correct to interpret Representative (issue, area)Representative (issue, area) Regularly updated Regularly updated Reference value Reference value International comparable International comparable Scientifically sound Scientifically sound Consensus on data validity/ methods Consensus on data validity/ methods
Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Sensitive to CC Sensitive to CC (Related to policy process)(Related to policy process) (Applicable in assessments)(Applicable in assessments)
EEA
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Indicator evaluationIndicator evaluation Indicator evaluationIndicator evaluationA) Core set indicator, available in the short termA) Core set indicator, available in the short term
B) Core set indicator, suitable on medium termB) Core set indicator, suitable on medium term
C) Core set indicator, suitable on long termC) Core set indicator, suitable on long term
D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis needed)needed)
E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/
data not sufficient)data not sufficient)
F) Not suitable as indicatorF) Not suitable as indicator
A) Core set indicator, available in the short termA) Core set indicator, available in the short term
B) Core set indicator, suitable on medium termB) Core set indicator, suitable on medium term
C) Core set indicator, suitable on long termC) Core set indicator, suitable on long term
D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis needed)needed)
E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/
data not sufficient)data not sufficient)
F) Not suitable as indicatorF) Not suitable as indicator
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Indicator categoriesIndicator categoriesIndicator categoriesIndicator categories
1) Climate and Atmosphere1) Climate and Atmosphere
2) Cryosphere2) Cryosphere
3) Soils and Resources3) Soils and Resources
4) Agriculture and Forestry4) Agriculture and Forestry
5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity
6) Hydrology and Water resources6) Hydrology and Water resources
7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones
8) Economy and Infrastructure8) Economy and Infrastructure
9) Human Health9) Human Health
1) Climate and Atmosphere1) Climate and Atmosphere
2) Cryosphere2) Cryosphere
3) Soils and Resources3) Soils and Resources
4) Agriculture and Forestry4) Agriculture and Forestry
5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity
6) Hydrology and Water resources6) Hydrology and Water resources
7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones
8) Economy and Infrastructure8) Economy and Infrastructure
9) Human Health9) Human Health
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicatorsProposed indicators Proposed indicatorsProposed indicators
Climate & atmosphereClimate & atmosphere
Core set indicators (categories A,B,C)Core set indicators (categories A,B,C) Temperature changeTemperature change Rate of temperature change Rate of temperature change PrecipitationPrecipitation Snow coverSnow cover Climate indicesClimate indices
Other indicators (categories D,E)Other indicators (categories D,E) Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere, Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere,
changes in cloudinesschanges in cloudiness
Climate & atmosphereClimate & atmosphere
Core set indicators (categories A,B,C)Core set indicators (categories A,B,C) Temperature changeTemperature change Rate of temperature change Rate of temperature change PrecipitationPrecipitation Snow coverSnow cover Climate indicesClimate indices
Other indicators (categories D,E)Other indicators (categories D,E) Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere, Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere,
changes in cloudinesschanges in cloudiness
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
European annual mean temperature deviations 1850-2000
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1850
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Dif
fere
nce
fro
m a
vera
ge
1960
- 1
990
ann
ual
tem
per
atu
re (
oC
)
Yearly deviation from 1961-90 normal mean
10 Year Trend, Gaussian filtered
Example: Temperature in EuropeExample: Temperature in EuropeExample: Temperature in EuropeExample: Temperature in Europe
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicators (II)Proposed indicators (II) Proposed indicators (II)Proposed indicators (II)
CryosphereCryosphere
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators extend & mass glaciersextend & mass glaciers Arctic sea iceArctic sea ice Permafrost (temperature profiles)Permafrost (temperature profiles)
Other indicators Other indicators Ice break-up arctic coastal zonesIce break-up arctic coastal zones
CryosphereCryosphere
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators extend & mass glaciersextend & mass glaciers Arctic sea iceArctic sea ice Permafrost (temperature profiles)Permafrost (temperature profiles)
Other indicators Other indicators Ice break-up arctic coastal zonesIce break-up arctic coastal zones
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Example: Example: Change in arctic sea ice extentChange in arctic sea ice extentExample: Example: Change in arctic sea ice extentChange in arctic sea ice extent
0.15 0.3 0.45 0.6 0.75 0.9
F raction of ocean covered by sea ice
Met Office / Hadley Centre
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicators (III)Proposed indicators (III) Proposed indicators (III)Proposed indicators (III)
Soils and land resourcesSoils and land resources
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Carbon sequestration in vegetation and soilsCarbon sequestration in vegetation and soils
Other indicators Other indicators Soil degradation, soil moistureSoil degradation, soil moisture
Soils and land resourcesSoils and land resources
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Carbon sequestration in vegetation and soilsCarbon sequestration in vegetation and soils
Other indicators Other indicators Soil degradation, soil moistureSoil degradation, soil moisture
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicators (IV)Proposed indicators (IV) Proposed indicators (IV)Proposed indicators (IV)
Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Yield trends of important crop typesYield trends of important crop types Trends in forest growthTrends in forest growth Shift of tree linesShift of tree lines
Other indicators Other indicators Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest
composition composition
Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Yield trends of important crop typesYield trends of important crop types Trends in forest growthTrends in forest growth Shift of tree linesShift of tree lines
Other indicators Other indicators Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest
composition composition
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicators Proposed indicators (V)(V) Proposed indicators Proposed indicators (V)(V)Ecosystems and biodiversityEcosystems and biodiversity
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Phenology/growing season lengthPhenology/growing season length Arrival date of birdsArrival date of birds Egg-laying datesEgg-laying dates Ecosystem compositionEcosystem composition
Other indicators Other indicators Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)
Ecosystems and biodiversityEcosystems and biodiversity
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Phenology/growing season lengthPhenology/growing season length Arrival date of birdsArrival date of birds Egg-laying datesEgg-laying dates Ecosystem compositionEcosystem composition
Other indicators Other indicators Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Example: Example: Change in LGP 1982-1991Change in LGP 1982-1991Example: Example: Change in LGP 1982-1991Change in LGP 1982-1991
Myneni et al 1999
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicators (VI)Proposed indicators (VI) Proposed indicators (VI)Proposed indicators (VI)
Hydrology and water resourcesHydrology and water resources
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Irrigation water demandIrrigation water demand River temperatureRiver temperature Water scarcity index Water scarcity index
Other indicators Other indicators River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater
level, temperature profiles of inland lakes level, temperature profiles of inland lakes
Hydrology and water resourcesHydrology and water resources
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Irrigation water demandIrrigation water demand River temperatureRiver temperature Water scarcity index Water scarcity index
Other indicators Other indicators River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater
level, temperature profiles of inland lakes level, temperature profiles of inland lakes
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicators (VII)Proposed indicators (VII) Proposed indicators (VII)Proposed indicators (VII)
Marine environment and coastal Marine environment and coastal zoneszones
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Sea (surface) temperatureSea (surface) temperature Storm surges Storm surges Sea level riseSea level rise Thermohaline circulationThermohaline circulation
Other indicators Other indicators Shoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivityShoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivity
Marine environment and coastal Marine environment and coastal zoneszones
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Sea (surface) temperatureSea (surface) temperature Storm surges Storm surges Sea level riseSea level rise Thermohaline circulationThermohaline circulation
Other indicators Other indicators Shoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivityShoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivity
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicators (VIII)Proposed indicators (VIII) Proposed indicators (VIII)Proposed indicators (VIII)
Economy and infrastructureEconomy and infrastructure
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators InsuranceInsurance Electricity, gas & water consumption Electricity, gas & water consumption
Other indicatorsOther indicators TourismTourism
Economy and infrastructureEconomy and infrastructure
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators InsuranceInsurance Electricity, gas & water consumption Electricity, gas & water consumption
Other indicatorsOther indicators TourismTourism
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Proposed indicators Proposed indicators (IX)(IX) Proposed indicators Proposed indicators (IX)(IX)Human healthHuman health
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators
Other indicators in broad setOther indicators in broad set Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat
waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-borne diseasesborne diseases
Human healthHuman health
Core set indicatorsCore set indicators
Other indicators in broad setOther indicators in broad set Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat
waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-borne diseasesborne diseases
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Summary & conclusions Summary & conclusions Summary & conclusions Summary & conclusions
ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for reporting purposes & IEAreporting purposes & IEA
Indicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteriaIndicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteria Core data set for all 9 categories: Core data set for all 9 categories:
– 3 indicators category A, 3 indicators category A, – 10 category B,10 category B,– 8 category C, 8 category C, – 23 category D23 category D
ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for reporting purposes & IEAreporting purposes & IEA
Indicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteriaIndicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteria Core data set for all 9 categories: Core data set for all 9 categories:
– 3 indicators category A, 3 indicators category A, – 10 category B,10 category B,– 8 category C, 8 category C, – 23 category D23 category D
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE
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