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Will 5G and IoT Create a New
Monopoly? CommsDay Conference
Sydney 4-‐5th April 2016
Telco Subject Matter Expert
Presented by Professor Reg CouBs
A question for us after Barcelona?
Urgency of 5G (he suggested marketing hype) 5G: DOWN THE RABBIT HOLE���CTN Issue: March 2016���Alan Gatherer, Editor in Chief, ComSoc Technology News
http://www.comsoc.org/ctn/5g-down-rabbit-hole
Summary ! Introduction! Wireless Reflections
• WiFi and WiMax ‘threat’
! Urgency of 5G?• Reflections on Barcelona
! IoT and Telcos?• LoRa alliance and Sig Fox
! Mobile Sector and Regulation• Fear of ‘interventions
! Concerns
Introduction! Telecommunications history - refresher
! ‘natural monopoly’ of ‘fixed network’! Telephone voice service the key service! Initial competition in ‘long haul’ – the 70s! Mobile network competition – the 80s
! Fundamental Changes – the Internet & the 90s! Fixed network core till about 2010 – future?! Transition to ALL IP networks (end of circuit switching)! OTT competitive providers ! Broadband broadband INCLUDES voice
Mobile Reflections! Cellular Mobiles (Competition aspect!)
! First phase – 1983• United States & AMPS
• Regional non wire-line competitors• Country wide duopolies (not in Australia till 1992!)
! Second phase – digital technology - 1991• GSM – 1993 in Australia – tri-opoly• 3G and HSPDA
! Third phase – broadband mobile• 4G (LTE evolution) – from 2010
! What of 5G??
Competition to ‘mobile’ technology! WiFi and 3G
! Voice and data seen as separate! WiMax and HSPDA (in 3G) – 1997
! Voice and data STILL seen as separate! Remember OPEL in 2007
! NBN ‘fixed broadband’ – 2009! Mobile and fixed broadband
• Complementary AND substitution argument
! LTE to be deployed in ‘unlicensed’ spectrum ! New networks for IoT (eg LoRa/SigFox?)
Internet of Things (IoT) and Telcos! Mobile players and IoT
! AT&T and Verizon in the US aggressive plans! Telstra and Vodafone in Australia (planning!)
! Alternative (‘private’) networks to mobile ! Silver Springs Networks
• Founded in the US in 2002 – went public in 2013• Expansion in Europe in 2014• Wireless electricity meters in Vic Australia in 2015
! SigFox LPWAN network• Founded in France in 2009• Aggressive expansion in the US in 2016• Australia launch – today!
! Taggle and NNNCo (LORA Alliance and LoRaWAN)
IoT Policy and Regulation in Australia! Comms Alliance IoT ‘think tank’ – June 2015
! ACMA ! WGs established
! Spectrum and IoT! Unlicensed spectrum
• 900MHz ISM band• Other bands
! GSM spectrum?
Reasons for 5G Hype?! Features of 5G ‘vision’
! More multiple bands for higher speed! Low latency for IoT application
! Technology Standards Evolution! Enthusiastic support from their Suppliers
! 3Gpp standards development! Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei! Cisco, IBM more flexible?
Mobile Sector & Regulation! Developed countries?
! Inadequate ‘fixed infrastructure’! Mobile innovation
• Success of m-commerce in Kenya
! Mexico, Sth Africa (see GSA report)• Wholesale mobile with retail competition
! Developing countries?! Dominance increasing
• AT&T and Verizon in the US• Telstra in Australia
My Concerns amidst 5G Hype! Increasing demands
! Greater rural mobile coverage! Mobile service substitution for fixed telephone! More innovative solutions (eg aerostats, satellites)
! Risks of market intervention! Inclusion of mobile in the USO ! Expanded scope of NBN Co.! Wholesale mobile with retail competition
! How to recognise risks versus opportunities
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