workshop usgs brasil_2015_01

Near-real time pan-tropical monitoring system for detection of changes in natural vegetation

12th Regional Workshops on Forest Monitoring GEO GFOIEarly Warning Systems for deforestationJanuary 19-23, 2014San Jose Dos Campos, Brazil

Overview

Context

Methods

Applications

Impact

Ongoing developments

Conclusions

Context

Deforestation

52% commercial agriculture 33% small scale agriculture 7% roads construction

6% minning 2% urban expansion

5

Free data for monitoring

natural covers changes in

Latin America and the Caribbean

•A mapping tool to detect areas of rapid habitat change

•250m resolution (high percentages of disturbance events larger than 5 ha are identified)

•Frequent natural covers change monitoring, every 16 days

•Latin American and the Caribbean coverage (currently)

•Web tools available to visualize and download habitat loss data

The Bottom Line Limits...

Terra-i IS NOT the tool togive detailed estimates ofdeforestation area andsmall logging activities

Terra-i could help toprioritize high-resolutionanalyses

The methods for deforestation detection only were functional for specific ecosystems

Forest monitoring

In 2006, only one tropical country monitored deforestation: Brazil

There was not an accurate estimation of de forestation (each country use differentmethodologies and statistics)

To use high-frequency imaging and moderate

spatial resolution for ...

Monitoring the conversion of natural habitats in near real time. (Results 2

months after the date of capture)

Have a continental coverage of all types of habitat.

Be a support for government agencies in making decisions.

Quantifying habitat conversion rates and make analysis of trends from

2004 to date.

Monitor the impact on protected areas in Latin America.

Terra- goals

Paula PazTerra-i

Jerome TouvalTNC

Andres PerezHEIG-VD

Mark MulliganKCL

Karolina ArgoteTerra-i

JhonTello

Andy Jarvis

Carolina Navarrete

AlejandroCoca

Edward GuevaraCIAT

Terra- team

Oscar BautistaTerra-i

LouisReymondin

Method

The detection step (using data from 2004 to present)

2

Research methodology overview

The methodology can be split into two main steps:

The training step (using data from 2000 to 2004)

1Bayesian-probability based neural network (BNN) learns how the greenness of a given pixel

responds to a unit of rainfall

INPUT DATA:

Vegetation Index (MOD13Q1 MODIS / NDVI Product , 16 days, 250m)

Precipitation Data: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - TRMM 3B42 (3hours, 28km)

Calibrated model is run to identify fluctuations in greenness that cannot be explained by

rainfall or by previous state of the vegetation

OUTPUT DATA:

Natural cover change data (gain or loss, annual or by 16 days period, 250m)

Terra-i System

Workflow

Tiempo

Vegetation modelling

Anomaly

Modelo

Satélite

Tiempo

Vegetation modelling

OUTPUT: 16 day predicted NDVI

PredictionMultilayer perceptronBayesian Neural Network (BNN)

Model trainning and noise approximationScaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG)Gaussian noise

Input automatic selectionAutomatic relevance determination (ARD)

The goal of the model is to predict what is the NDVI value at the date t taking as input the NDVI values at t-1, t-2 … t-n and the previous rainfall.

INPUTS: Past NDVI (MODIS 13Q1)Previous rainfall (TRMM 3b42)

change

Methodology – Change detection

Debido a que terra-i genera mapas deprobabilidad de conversión, se usaronimagenes landsat para calibrar losresultados y así seleccionar los umbralesde probabilidad más apropiados paracada cluster.

2004

2009

Calibration using Landsat images

34 Satellite Scenes

Vegetation change maps every 16 days

PRODUCTS

Management of massive datasets

- every 16 days we analyze 1.15 billion pixels -

Decrease Increase Flood

Terra-i System

Bolivia

Products

1 escena TRMM

Precipitación(3b42 v7)

+

Comparison of Terra-i results with other local models

Terra-i results were compared with deforestation data produced by the National Institutefor Space Research Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) from 2004 to 2009through monitoring systems as PRODES and DETER.

PRODESThe Project of estimation of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (PRODES) generatedestimations from 2003 using a digital classification system with Landsat images (30m).

DETERDETER is a near real time deforestation detection system. It publishes fortnightlydeforestation alerts for the Brazilian Amazon using MODIS images (500m).

The comparison shows a high correlation between Terra-i and PRODES systems.

Comparación con PRODES

% de las detecciones de PRODES dentro de los pixeles MODIS

% d

e d

etec

cio

nes

igu

ales

Comparison with PRODES

A team that optimizes resources and processes

The images used MODIS and TRMM - do not have any cost. The costs are associated with theprocessing equipment and hiring specialists in handling this tool

Most processes are automated using programming languages like JAVA are efficient in handling large database.

This has allowed a multidisciplinary team of four people working at 100% resulting in a successful generation of continuous updates to the current date

The outreach of the project is fully supported by CIAT communication team and several short reports highlighting new patterns in our data have been made available on our website.

Policy of free data access

Expert users can download our data in a format readable in GIS software (Raster)

Users without knowledge of spatial data analysis can visualize and downloaded our data and charts in

different format

A TOOL TO SUPPORT RESEARCH AND DECISION MAKING

http://www.terra-i.org/

GIS EspecialistsNo GIS especialists

Uses

Octubre 5, 2012Caso Tamshicayu, Perú

Detecciones Terra-i

Landsat 8

Ucayali, Perú

San Martin, Perú

Application 1: monitoring the expansion of large areas crops

Photo: A. Coca / 2013

Photo: A. Coca / 2013

Application 1: monitoring the expansion of large areas crops

Integrandoproyectos

Basado en IPCC

Application 2: understanding changes on the field (validation)

Ecoregión del Cerrado BrasileroEcoregión del Gran Chaco

Application 3: detecting changes in other ecosystems different than tropical forests

Application 4: increase product

Application 5: integration to other policy support systems

• Terra-i can also be used within the WaterWorld and Co$ting Nature Policy Support Systems to

understand the impact of recent land cover change on hydrology and the production and

delivery of ecosystem services.

• Data: http://geodata.policysupport.org/

Water flows Erosion

Impact

http://www.terra-i.org/terra-i/data/data-terra-i_peru

Reunión Lima, Marzo 2014

Terra-i Perú (Monitoring vegetal cover of a territory)

Cooperation with independent media

Plataformas endiferentes formatos

aumentan la participación de la

sociedad civil basada enel uso de datos

espaciales para discutirlos eventos de su región

Impact

Feb 2012 a Dec 2014

50 daily visits

1500 users250 institutions

185 followers

411 fans

Website

On-going development

Integration with Global Forest Watch

http://www.globalforestwatch.org/

Expand terra- Pan-tropically

En funcionamiento y actualizado En proceso de expansión

A mapping and monitoring system for rapid assessment of land cover conversion at a medium scale(250m).

A tool for monitoring conversion of habitat at continental, national and regional level in close to realtime.

A tool for understanding the effectiveness of protected areas and other conservation measures instabilizing or reducing land cover conversion.

A spatial support system for decision making in public policy and private development initiatives.Through its linkage with WaterWorld and Co$ting Nature, a system for understanding the likely impactsof near real-time land cover change on a wide range of ecosystem services.

X Detailed monitoring tool in local level. For this it requires second-level monitoring (with highresolution images) and third level (field data).

X A system to monitor degradation.

Is:

Is not:

Conclusions

• Deforestation is changing very fast and thatthreaths several ecosistems, for this reason is veryimportant to have early warning systems.

• More research is still needed in order to assessconservation policies, actions against deforestationand diverse land and cover changes.

Conclusions

Thank you!

Contact us:terra.i.ciat@gmail.coml.reymondin@cgiar.orgo.bautista@cgiar.org