xp presidentialpoll round 7 2018_07_01.pdf · 2018. 7. 11. · 5% 5% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%...
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XP PresidentialPoll–Round 7
July, 2018
2
Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018
May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - -June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018
XP Presidential Polls
XP Presidential Poll - Details
Conducted by:
Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)
Sample:
1000 interviews/each week
Coverage:
National
Method:
Phone call interviews
Margin of Error:
1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p.
3
Political Analysis
GENDER REGIONMALE 48% NORTH 8%FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%
AGE SOUTHEAST 43%16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7%35 TO 54 YO 40% TYPE OF CITY+55 YO 27% CAPITAL TOWNS 23%
OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 16%WORKING 61% COUNTRY TOWNS 61%NOT WORKING 39% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 35%E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 23%D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 29% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 14%C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 35% > 500.000 HAB 28%B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 12% RELIGIONA CLASS (> 20 MW) 3% CATHOLIC 60%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 23% EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 8%ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 7% SPIRITTUALISM 4%MIDDLE SCHOOL 26% ADVENTITST 1%HIGH SCHOOL 46% OTHER 5%HIGHER EDUCATION 21% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
4
Political AnalysisHighlights
Jair Bolsonaro remains the leader in all three scenarios in which Lula isn’t considered. He
increased one point, within the margin of error, on all first-round scenarios. On second-round
scenarios, Bolsonaro is technically tied to Lula (33% to 39%), Geraldo Alckmin (34% to 32%),
Marina Silva (33% to 36%) and Ciro Gomes (34% to 31%).
Other candidates had little or no change in first-round and second-round scenarios.
The electorate was asked how they get informed about the election. TV was mentioned
the most (35%), ahead of Internet and social media (20%). Jair Bolsonaro voters are the most
influenced by internet and social media (30%). Ciro Gomes and Marina Silva voters are the
most influenced by TV (44% and 43%), a problem for her, since she isn’t expected to have a
large time to do campaign on television.
49% of voters declared they decided who they`d vote for in 2014 after the campaign started –
10% after TV electoral programs started, 8% in the few days before elections, 19% after the
last debate and 13% on election day. 41% declared they decided before the campaign started.
The electorate was asked again what would be their second choice if they could`t vote for the
chosen candidate. Jair Bolsonaro voters remain the least likely to vote for other candidates -
62% of them say they would vote blank, null or don’t know. This rate was 50% last week.
5
Political Analysis
36%
28%
14%12%
2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? (SPONTANEOUS)
Voting Intention - Spontaneous
JulyWeek 1
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
33%
42%
37% 37%
40% 39%
36%
33%
19%
25%
28%27%
28% 28%
13%
18%
14%13% 13% 13%
14%
11%12%
14%
12%13% 12%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
Dont Know/Didn't Answer
None/Blank/Null
Bolsonaro
Lula
6
Political Analysis
29%
23%
12%10%
8%
5% 5%
2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE____, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
Scenario 1 – PT presents no candidate
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
JulyWeek 1
29%
27%
30%29% 29%
31%29%
22%
25%
23%22% 22% 22%
23%
13% 13% 13% 13% 13%12% 12%
9% 9% 9%8% 8% 7%
8%
11%9%
11% 11% 10% 10% 10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
None/Blank/Null
Bolsonaro
Marina
Ciro
Alckmin
7
Political Analysis
27%
23%
13%
10%8%
5% 5%
2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE____, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
Scenario 2 – with Fernando Haddad (PT)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
JulyWeek 1
29%
24%
27% 27%28% 28%
27%
22%
26%
22%21% 21%
22%23%
13%14%
13% 13%14%
12%13%
9% 9%8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
11%10%
11%10% 10%
11%10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
None/Blank/Null
Bolsonaro
Marina
Ciro
Alckmin
8
Political Analysis
28%
20%
16%
9%7% 7%
5%3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE____, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
30%
28%
30%29%
28%29% 28%
23%
25%
20%19% 19%
19%20%
17%
13%
15%16%
18%18% 16%
6% 5% 6% 6%5%
6%
7%8%
10% 10% 10% 10%9% 9%9% 8%
7% 7% 7% 7%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
None/Blank/Null
Bolsonaro
Lula
Marina
Alckmin
Ciro
Scenario 3 – with Lula (PT)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
JulyWeek 1
9
Political Analysis
24%
21%
11% 11%
8%7%
5%4%
2% 2%1% 1% 1%
IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE____, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
Scenario 4 – Haddad with Lula’s support
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
JulyWeek 1
25%
19%
24%23%
24%
21%
20%19%
20%21%
11% 11%12%
11% 11%11% 10% 11% 10%
11%
8% 8% 8% 7% 7%
9%9% 8% 8% 8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
None/Blank/Null
Bolsonaro
Fernando Haddad,supported by Lula
Marina
Alckmin
Ciro
10
Political Analysis
24% 25%
12%
7%8%
4%
6% 5%4%
3%2%
1% 0%
29%
24%
10%
7% 7%5% 5%
4% 4%2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T END UP IN THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
Second option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
11
Political AnalysisSecond option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA
JAIR BOLSONARO
GERALDO ALCKMIN
MARINA SILVA
CIRO GOMES
ÁLVARO DIAS
UNDECIDED
ÁLVARO DIAS 4% 6% 8% 3% 11% 0% 0%CIRO GOMES 18% 4% 16% 14% 0% 6% 0%FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 1% 5% 16% 10% 0% 0%FLÁVIO ROCHA 2% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%GERALDO ALCKMIN 5% 11% 0% 14% 11% 21% 0%GUILHERME BOULOS 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 1% 3% 4% 5% 1% 2% 0%JAIR BOLSONARO 6% 0% 12% 11% 7% 19% 0%MANUELA D'ÁVILA 4% 0% 0% 6% 7% 0% 0%MARINA SILVA 22% 10% 14% 0% 26% 13% 0%DIDN'T ANSWER 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0%DON'T KNOW 7% 11% 4% 5% 7% 2% 0%NONE/BLANK/NULL 30% 51% 33% 23% 17% 38% 0%HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN''T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
2nd Option
Choice in scenario 4
12
Political Analysis
37%
22%
14%
3%4%
0%
4%
1%0%
1%1%
4%
35%
22%
12%
9%
5%
3%
0%
4%
2%1%
0%
2%
33%
27%
17%
8%
5%
4%2% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Lula's Vote MigrationScenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4
Vote MigrationMICRODATA SPECIAL
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
13
Political Analysis
35%36%
40%42%
41% 40%39%
37%38%
35%34%
33% 33% 33%
26%24% 24%
22%
24% 24% 25%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:
None/Blank/Null
Lula
Jair Bolsonaro
Don't Know/Didn't Answer
31%
28%30% 29% 28% 29% 28%
15%
25%
20% 19% 19% 19% 20%
47%49%
41% 40% 41% 40% 41%
6% 6%7% 6% 5% 5% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:
None/Blank/Null
Geraldo Alckmin
Fernando Haddad
Don't Know/Didn't Answer
2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
14
Political Analysis
31% 31%
36%
38%36% 35% 36%
35%37%
35%34%
32% 32% 33%
31%30%
28%
25%
28%29% 29%
3% 2% 1%3% 3% 3%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:
None/Blank/Null
Marina
Don't Know/Didn't Answer
Bolsonaro
33%
35%34% 33%
32%33%
34%
29%28%
29%
31%
31% 32% 32%
34% 34%
34%
30%
34%33%
32%
4% 3% 3%
5%
3% 3% 3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:
None/Blank/Null
Geraldo Alckmin
Don't Know/Didn't Answer
Bolsonaro
2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
15
Political Analysis
36%
38%
35%34% 33% 33% 34%
29%29% 33% 33% 32%
32% 31%32%
29% 29%
27%
29%32%
30%
4% 3%2%
7% 6%
3%4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:
None/Blank/Null
Ciro
Don't Know/Didn't Answer
Bolsonaro
32% 30%
29%
31%
32%
32% 33%
27% 27%
32%
30% 30%
32%
31%
38%39%
38%36%
34%32%
34%
3% 4%2% 3%
4% 3% 3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:
None/Blank/Null
Ciro
Don't Know/Didn't Answer
Alckmin
2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
16
Political Analysis
27%
20%
12%
9% 8%
5%4%
LULA BOLSONARO MARINA CIRO ALCKMIN A. DIAS HADDAD
Candidates Strong-Minded Votes- 'Will surely vote for' -
Voter conviction
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
17
Political Analysis
62%
59% 59% 58% 57%
52%
48%
LULA ALCKMIN CIRO MARINA HADDAD BOLSONARO A. DIAS
Candidates Rejection- 'Wouldn't vote in any scenario' -
Rejection
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
18
Political Analysis
34%
27%
12% 12%
9%
5%
1%
A. DIAS HADDAD CIRO BOLSONARO ALCKMIN MARINA LULA
Unfamiliarity Rate- 'Don't know enough' -
Unfamiliarity
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
19
Political Analysis
Would Surely Vote
Could VoteWouldn't
Vote Dont't Know
EnoughDon'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswerTotal
LULA 27% 10% 62% 1% 0% 100%
BOLSONARO 20% 13% 52% 12% 3% 100%
MARINA 12% 24% 58% 5% 0% 100%
CIRO 9% 18% 59% 12% 2% 100%
ALCKMIN 8% 23% 59% 9% 1% 100%
A. DIAS 5% 12% 48% 34% 1% 100%
HADDAD 4% 11% 57% 27% 1% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T
VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
JulyWeek 1
20
Political Analysis
30%28%
24%
5% 5% 4%2% 2%
0%
JAIRBOLSONARO
DON'T KNOW LULA MARINA SILVA GERALDOALCKMIN
CIRO GOMES DIDN'TANSWER
ÁLVARO DIAS FERNANDOHADDAD
IN YOUR OPINION, WHO'S GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT ?
Expectation of Victory
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
JulyWeek 1
30%
34%32% 31% 31%
30% 30%
26% 25%
19%
26%27% 27% 28%
23%21% 23% 23%
25% 25% 24%
5%4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
5%
7%6% 6% 5%
5%5%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1
Don't Know
Lula
Alckmin
Bolsonaro
Marina
21
Political AnalysisDisclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or
severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this
communication.
All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any
other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that
any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances
or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.
This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a
solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is
confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.
© GrupoXP
July 2018
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