zero carbon britain 2030
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Since their pioneering Since their pioneering Low Energy Strategy for Low Energy Strategy for the UK the UK in 1977, the Centre for Alternative in 1977, the Centre for Alternative
Technology has been pointing the way towards Technology has been pointing the way towards a sustainable energy future for Britain. a sustainable energy future for Britain.
Now the CAT researchers have done it again. Now the CAT researchers have done it again. Their new Their new zerocarbonbritain2030 zerocarbonbritain2030 report, report,
describes in detail how the UK could make the describes in detail how the UK could make the transit ion to a zero carbon society as early as transit ion to a zero carbon society as early as
2030.2030.
Derby Climate CoalitionDerby Climate CoalitionDerby October 2010Derby October 2010
ZERO CARBON BRITAIN
2030
Peter Harper
Centre for Alternative Technology
THE GREATEST EVER BRANCH-POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY?
WILL WE RECOGNISE IT?
MITIGATION SCENARIO
3-6° SCENARIO + PEAK OIL
THE GREATEST EVER BRANCH-POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY?
WILL WE RECOGNISE IT?
MITIGATION SCENARIO
3-6° SCENARIO + PEAK OIL
THE GREATEST EVER BRANCH-POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY?
WILL WE RECOGNISE IT?
MITIGATION SCENARIO
3-6° SCENARIO + PEAK OIL
THE GREATEST EVER BRANCH-POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY?
WILL WE RECOGNISE IT?
MITIGATION SCENARIO
3-6° SCENARIO + PEAK OIL
THE ‘CARBON BUDGET’ APPROACH
GERMAN ADVISORY COUNCIL ON GLOBAL CHANGE
COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY
U K O F FIC IA L B U D G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L 173 2 3 M T C O 2 E)
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY
SLOW START: TOTAL 20788
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
U K O F FIC IA L B U D G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L 173 2 3 M T C O 2 E)
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY
SLOW START: TOTAL 20788
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RAPID START, TOTAL 12688
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
U K O F FIC IA L B U D G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L 173 2 3 M T C O 2 E)
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
COMPARE WITH UK NATIONAL POLICY
SLOW START: TOTAL 20788
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RAPID START, TOTAL 12688
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
U K O F FIC IA L B U D G ET (PR O JEC TED , TO TA L 173 2 3 M T C O 2 E)
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
ZCB scenario 2008-2050 w ith net sequestration. Total 7958MtCO2e
-5000
5001000150020002500300035004000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Equity - taking a global lead
Now
2030
Report to reality
LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH
Rationalisation of demand
LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH
Rationalisation of demand
Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH
Rationalisation of demand
Net-negative processes
Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE APPROACH
Rationalisation of demand
Emissions envelope
Net-negative processes
Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
LOGICAL STRUCTURE OF THE ZCB2030 APPROACH
Rationalisation of demand
From Baiocchi and Minx, 2010
• 56% reduction in energy use by 2030
• Sector by Sector:– Built environment– Transport– Land-use– Industry– Behaviour
• Domestic approx 30% total emissions2030 - reduce energy use (heating & lighting) by 80%
• Non-domestic 25% of total emissions2030 - 37% reduction in emissions
• Large emphasis on retrofitting UK Buildings are incredibly inefficient
Built environment
• High proportion of natural materials low embodied energy & sequestration
• Insulating - large-scale retro-fit programme.
• Heat pumps• Thermal Comfort• Energy Service
Companies (ESCO’s)
Built environment
• Partial modal shift - private car to public transport, walking and cycling
• Reduction in passenger km
• Change of energy source from fossil fuels
• Electrification of cars, trains & LGV’s
Electric cars get a makeover
Transport - overview
• No domestic aviation, 1/3 international on current levels
• High speed electric train network
• Indigenous bioenergy & hydrogen to power HGV’s and planes
Why don’t we have these in the UK?
Transport
NOW 2030
Transport - modes (km)
POWER UP
Rationalisation of demand
Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
Offshore wind
Heat pumps
Electricity, heat and transport 2030
All Generation over a year
Balancing Supply and demand over a year
Variability overview• Variable demand
• Variable supply
• Intra-Day
• Seasonality
• Real time matching
• Balancing services
• High Voltage DC Grid
• Linking up the offshore wind-farms
• Also linking the winter wind to the summer sun
EU Energy network
NET-NEGATIVE PROCESSES
Rationalisation of demand
Net-negative processes
Low/Zero Carbon supply systems
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS: GHG EMISSIONS, LAND REQUIREMENT, OUTPUT. ADJUSTED FOR NUTRITIONAL VALUE AFTER MAILLOT 2009
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
OTHER C
ROPS
OATS
PEAS AND B
EANS
FRUIT
BEET
VEGETABLE
S
BARLEY
POTATOES
RAPE
PROTECTED CROPS
WHEAT
HORSES etc
EGGS
PIGS
SHEEP
POULT
RYBEEF
MILK
FOOD PRODUCT GROUPS, IN TWO CLASSES
EM
ISS
ION
S, K
T, L
AN
D, K
HA
X 4
, PR
OD
UC
T K
T Nutrionally-adjusted product
Land used
GHG emissions
COMPARISON OF EXISTING AND ZCB2030 SCENARIO EMISSIONS
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
PRODUCTS IN THREE CLASSES, RANKED BY EMISSIONS
GH
G E
MIS
SIO
NS
, KT
CO
2e
/ye
ar
Scenario emissions
existing emissions
Area functions in the Scenario
Food
Energy
Sequestration
Other
Urban land Biodiversity
Amenity Recreation Protected
areas etc53Mt food
176TWh primary energy
-68MtCO2e
Area functions in the Scenario
Food
Energy
Sequestration
Other
Urban land Biodiversity
Amenity Recreation Protected
areas etc53Mt food
176TWh primary energy
-68MtCO2e
Balance of GHG emissions from land use processes – at present
AGRICULTURE AND LAND USE: BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EMISSIONS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PO
SIT
IVE
AN
D N
EG
AT
IVE
EM
ISS
ION
S, M
ILL
ION
S
OF
TO
NN
ES
CO
2E
Grazing livestock
Non-grazing livestock
Crop products
Imports
Negative emissions
Summary of our results
ZCB LAND-USE SCENARIO: BALANCE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EMISSIONS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
NEGATIVE POSITIVE
PO
SIT
IVE
AN
D N
EG
AT
IVE
EM
ISS
ION
S, M
TC
O2E
/Y
Livestock products"
Crop products
Imports
Negative emissions
THE YAWNI NG CHASM
POLI TI CAL REALI SM PHYSI CAL REALI SM
FURI OUS ACTI VI TY
ZCB
THE YAWNI NG CHASM
POLI TI CAL REALI SM PHYSI CAL REALI SM
FURI OUS ACTI VI TY
ZCB
A
B Physically feasible decarbonised worlds
You are here
A
B Physically feasible decarbonised worlds
You are here
I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050
I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050• Only technical measures to power down
I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050• Only technical measures to power down • Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up
I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050• Only technical measures to power down • Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up• Much more attention to adaptation
I.Mech.E. “MAG” Model
• Similar to ZCB in principle, 80% by 2050• Only technical measures to power down • Uses nuclear, CCS, renewables to power up• Much more attention to adaptation ‘Air capture’ for net-negative processes
SCENARIOS
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
LOTS of it!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
LOTS of it!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO OFFSETS!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
...OR BIOFUELS!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
...OR BIOFUELS!
...OR LIFESTYLE CHANGES!
MAINSTREAM DEMANDS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM
Keep it cheap!
No Power Cuts!
LOTS of it!
...AND NO OFFSETS!
...OR CARBON CAPTURE AND
STORAGE!
...OR GEO-ENGINEERING!
...OR BIOFUELS!
...OR LIFESTYLE CHANGES!
NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS?
NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS?
• If it’s this serious everything must be on the table
NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS?
• If it’s this serious everything must be on the table
• We would need to discuss in good faith matters that we have spent lifetimes campaigning against
NO ABSOLUTE TABOOS?
• If it’s this serious everything must be on the table
• We would need to discuss in good faith matters that we have spent lifetimes campaigning against
Others have honest and well-researched scenarios too
THE ENDTHE END
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