an ecosystem approach to adaptive decision making under complexity: stability as resilience ashwani...

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An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth [email protected] http://phobos.ramapo.edu/~vasishth Associate Professor in Environmental Studies Ramapo College of New Jersey Presented at the 50 th Annual Conference of the Association of the Collegiate Schools of Planning, Oct. 1`-4, 2009, Crystal City, Virginia

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Page 1: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making

Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience

Ashwani [email protected]

http://phobos.ramapo.edu/~vasishth

Associate Professor in Environmental StudiesRamapo College of New Jersey

Presented at the 50th Annual Conference of the Association of the Collegiate Schools of Planning,

Oct. 1`-4, 2009, Crystal City, Virginia

Page 2: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Complex adaptive systems act as “wicked problems”

Rittel, Horst W. J. & Melvin M. Webber. 1969. "Dilemmas In A General Theory of Planning," Policy

Sciences 4, 1969, pp 155-173.

• Every wicked problem is unique;• Wicked problems can always be explained in more than one way;• There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem;• There is no stopping rule;• There is no enumerable set of solutions;• There is no singular test of a proposed solution.

Page 3: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Change as normal

Besides…

Page 4: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Uncertainty as normal

Page 5: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Variability as normal

Page 6: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Stability as resilience

Then…

Page 7: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

An ecosystem approach based on

nested scale-hierarchic process-function ecology,

offers the most effective basis

for an ecological planning under complexity

Page 8: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Levels of Organization

Allen, Timothy F.H. & Thomas W.l Hoekstra. 1992. Toward A Unified Ecology. New York: Columbia University Press. p. 30

Page 9: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Nested Systems

Bossel, H. 2001. Assessing Viability and Sustainability: A Systems-Based Approach for Deriving Comprehensive Indicator Sets. Conservation Ecology, 5(2):

12.

Page 10: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

South Coast Goods Movement:Levels of Organization

Supra-system

System of Concern

Sub-system

Page 11: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Descriptions Matter

• How we choose to make depictions of complex systems affects what we can see of context and consequence, and so affects outcomes

• Complex systems are best conceptualized as being arranged into nested levels of organization

Page 12: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Ecological Complexity

• To take a phenomenon ecologically, is to take it in consideration of its context and with attention to its consequences

• Rich depictions capture multiple, co-occurring realities

Page 13: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Ecological Complexity

• To take a phenomenon complexly is to recognize that there is always more than one or two things going on at the same time, and that we can never see every relevant aspect of any one particular reality in any one singular description--so we must describe things in multiple ways, strategically varying functional and purposive stakeholder perspectives in the generation of rich descriptions

Page 14: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Properties of An Ecosystem Approach

• Nested Assembly

• Scale-hierarchic Levels of Organization

• Rate-dependant Boundaries

• Purposive Descriptions

• Scale-dependant Structuring

• Functional Associations

Page 15: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Elements of An Ecosystem Approach

• Processes

• Boundaries

• Scales

• Purpose

• Perspective

Page 16: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Principles of An Ecosystem Approach...

• Structure, in ecological phenomena, derives from the specific processes and functions that drive the ecological complex--rather than looking to the morphological events, objects and entities most apparent to our senses, we must trace out the perhaps unseen associations that mark an occurant nature

Processes

Page 17: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

• Using processes, functions and matter-energy-information flows as a basis for describing any ecologically complex planning space drives us to recognize that most events, entities and objects can only be effectively described by the use of multiple boundaries, perhaps cutting across levels of organization

Boundaries

…Principles of An Ecosystem Approach...

Page 18: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

• Most ecologically complex phenomena have relevant associations that cut across levels of organization, and so can only be described using multiple spatial, temporal and organizational scales

Scales

…Principles of An Ecosystem Approach...

Page 19: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

• A key realization from a complex systems approach is that why we are asking a question will itself shape what we become able to see

Purpose

…Principles of An Ecosystem Approach...

Page 20: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

• Where we situate ourselves, in terms of spectator point, is quite likely to influence what we are able to see--then to see ecologically is to select relevantly different perspectives in generating our descriptions

Perspective

…Principles of An Ecosystem Approach

Page 21: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Decision Making As Adaptive Management

• Participatory• Stakeholder-based• Iterative• Mindful

Page 22: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Resilience Management

Walker, Brian et al. 2002. Resilience Management in Social-Ecological Systems: A Working Hypothesis for A Participatory Approach, Conservation Ecology, 6(1):14+

Page 23: An Ecosystem Approach to Adaptive Decision Making Under Complexity: Stability As Resilience Ashwani Vasishth vasishth@ramapo.edu vasishth

Ashwani Vasishth

Associate Professor in Environmental Studies

Ramapo College of New Jersey

[email protected]

(201) 684-6616

http://phobos.ramapo.edu/~vasishth