May 2015Authors: Carsten Warnecke1, Thomas Day1 and Noémie Klein2

1 NewClimate Institute, 2 Ecofys

Analysing the status quo of CDM projects Status and prospects

Analysing the status quo of CDM projects Status and prospects

DisclaimerThis document was written as part of an on-going research work for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) in the framework of the “Umweltforschungsplan” (FKZ UM 13 41 173). This document presents the data available at the time of writing. The views expressed in this document represent only the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the BMUB.

Download the complete report: http://newclimate.org/2015/05/16/analysing-the-status-quo-of-cdm-projects/

Project number CLIDE13832 (Ecofys) / 14004 (NewClimate Institute)

© Ecofys / NewClimate Institute 2015 by order of German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB)

Highlights

85%

6%

1%1%2%

5%

<1%

Projectimplementation

status

Fully implemented

Implementation / construction started

Investment decision made

Planning phase

No implementation planned

Dismantling of implemented activity

I do not know.

79%

3%

1%1% 15%

CDM component operational

status

In regular operation

Regular operation temporarily stopped

Regular operation permanently stopped

Regular operation not started, no GHGmitigationNo CDM-conformant operation, alternativeGHG mitigation equipment operatingI do not know

Project Type / Country Proportion of projects where the CDM component of the mitigation activity is:

fully implemented in regular operation with operational

monitoring system

EE own generation 96% 93% 80%

Fossil fuel switch 96% 81% 45%

Wind 93% 92% 81%

Coal bed/mine methane 86% 71% 50%

Solar 86% 80% 51%

Hydro 83% 81% 71%

Cement 82% 74% 72%

EE industry 82% 72% 52%

Biomass energy 81% 63% 52%

Methane avoidance 72% 48% 39%

HFCs 69% 69% 34%

Landfill gas 63% 54% 46%

N2O 62% 49% 25%

EE households 60% 58% 26%

South Korea 98% 73% 69%

Thailand 97% 71% 63%

China 91% 89% 77%

India 88% 81% 61%

Indonesia 76% 58% 42%

Brazil 75% 39% 29%

Vietnam 74% 73% 58%

Central America 70% 69% 47%

Malaysia 68% 58% 44%

Israel 61% 53% 39%

Chile 59% 55% 42%

Peru 58% 53% 29%

Colombia 55% 45% 26%

South Africa 52% 35% 32%

Sub-Saharan Africa 46% 36% 30%

Mexico2 28% 26% 23%

4%

67%

5%

7%

4%

14%

CDM monitoring

system

Not implemented yet

Implemented and operational

Implemented but operation temporarilystopped

Implemented but operation permanentlystopped (e.g. dismantled)

I do not know.

NA. Mitigation activity not technicallyimplemented

Highlights

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

CER revenues still sufficient

CDM still required to overcome non-financial barriers

A stop of the GHG mitigation equipment does not result in cost savings

The investment (decision) is irreversible.

Continuation is required due to binding legal contracts.

Continuation is required by national laws or regulations.

Project activity / emission source will be covered under an ETS

Expectations exist to receive alt. support or convert to alt. project scheme

Other reason.

Responses: 543 Error margin: 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

CDM activity is discontinued already before the end of the crediting period.CDM activity will aim for renewed crediting period.GHG activity will be continued outside the CDM but with alternative support.GHG mitigation to continue outside the CDM without alternative support.GHG mitigation activity will be continued but technically modified.GHG mitigation activity will be stopped.GHG mitigation equipment will reach the end of technical lifetime.

Responses: 624 Error margin: 11%

62%

4%

16%

5%

1%5%

8%

Conversionplans

No plans for conversion

Acceptance under a voluntary standardconsidered.Acceptance under a domestic standardconsidered.Seeking conversion opportunities intoNMM activities.Seeking conversion opportunities intointernational non-market-based activities.Other conversion plans

Unsure

56%26%

18%

Cancellation ofregistrationconsidered

Yes.

No.

I do not know.

Highlights

<1% 2%

51%

29%

6%

<1%

10%

RequiredCER price for continuation

Any price

< 2 €

2 – 5 €

5 – 10 €

10 – 20 €

> 20 €

No price

Unsure

<1%

26%

19%

20%

35%

Positivereturn on

investment

Positive returnalready received

Positive returnstill expected

Positive returnnot expected

Unsure

Responses: 552Error margin: 10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Technical barriers

Political situation

Administrative barriers

Access to knowledge

Uncertainty around CDM procedures and requirements

Costs related to CDM procedures and requirements

Availability of third parties

Data availability

Access to up-front finance

Responses: 670 Error margin: 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Support in identifying international support (programmes)

Support for direct marketing of CERs

CDM reform

Capacity building

Other

Error margin: 10%Responses: 552

55%38%

2%

5%

Purchasefacility

application

Such possibilities are unknown.

Such possibilities are known but anapplication was not considered.

An application is being consideredor is in preparation.

An application was submitted.

Responses: 535Error margin: 11%

3 Analysis of the non-evaluated projects indicates that the upper end of this range is more likely.

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