analysis of the impact of bankruptcy risk estimation on

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Analysis of the Impact of Bankruptcy Risk Estimation on Auditor Conservatism Meysam Foroughi Abari * Darush Foroughi ** Iraj Kazemi *** Abstract Objective: Many accounting and auditing variables represent forecasts of future events. Accordingly, decision making under conditions of uncertainty is of fundamental importance in accounting and auditing studies. An important aspect of such studies is estimating the risk of corporate bankruptcy. The estimated risk occurs because the probability of the customer going bankrupt is unknown and must be determined statistically. The bankruptcy risk is somehow different from the estimated risk. Some companies can have the same point estimates of bankruptcy while they do not have the same risk estimates. The level of risk estimation indicates the degree of inaccuracy in the point estimates of bankruptcy. We measure the risk estimate using the standard errors of point estimates of the bankruptcy because the risk estimate is the second-moment risk and measures the estimation precision and uncertainty around the point estimates of bankruptcy. In other words, we use the variance-covariance matrix to compute the standard errors of point estimates. In general, given the importance of bankruptcy and its consequences, our research aims to assess auditor's conservatism by Journal of Accounting Knowledge/ Vol. 11/ No. 3/ Ser.42 * Ph.D. Student in Accounting, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. ** Associate Professor of Accounting, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. *** Associate Professor of Statistics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. Corresponding Author: Darush Foroughi (Email: [email protected]). Submitted: 30 November 2019 Accepted: 19 May 2020 DOI: 10.22103/jak.2020.15009.3129

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Analysis of the Impact of Bankruptcy Risk Estimation on Auditor

Conservatism

Meysam Foroughi Abari∗

Darush Foroughi∗∗ Iraj Kazemi∗∗∗

Abstract

Objective: Many accounting and auditing variables represent forecasts

of future events. Accordingly, decision making under conditions of

uncertainty is of fundamental importance in accounting and auditing

studies. An important aspect of such studies is estimating the risk of

corporate bankruptcy. The estimated risk occurs because the probability

of the customer going bankrupt is unknown and must be determined

statistically. The bankruptcy risk is somehow different from the estimated

risk. Some companies can have the same point estimates of bankruptcy

while they do not have the same risk estimates.

The level of risk estimation indicates the degree of inaccuracy in the

point estimates of bankruptcy. We measure the risk estimate using the

standard errors of point estimates of the bankruptcy because the risk

estimate is the second-moment risk and measures the estimation precision

and uncertainty around the point estimates of bankruptcy. In other words,

we use the variance-covariance matrix to compute the standard errors of

point estimates. In general, given the importance of bankruptcy and its

consequences, our research aims to assess auditor's conservatism by

Journal of Accounting Knowledge/ Vol. 11/ No. 3/ Ser.42 ∗ Ph.D. Student in Accounting, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

∗∗

Associate Professor of Accounting, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. ∗∗∗

Associate Professor of Statistics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

Corresponding Author: Darush Foroughi (Email: [email protected]).

Submitted: 30 November 2019 Accepted: 19 May 2020

DOI: 10.22103/jak.2020.15009.3129

Abstract

measuring the risk estimates and analyzing their impacts on auditor

behavior.

Methods: In this study, we first obtained the point estimates of

bankruptcy and their standard errors, and then we predicted bankruptcy

by specific models over rolling windows over the past five years. Then,

we estimated multiple regression and probit models using the data set of

110 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE, from 2007 to

2017. The data set was collected using financial statements, audit reports

on the financial statements, the official website of the TSE, and the

official data from the Iranian Association of Certified Public Accountants.

At last, we performed data analysis to test related research hypotheses.

Results: According to the research findings, an increase in the

estimated risk of bankruptcy leads to a positive effect on the issuance of

going opinion and no effect on audit fees.

Conclusion: The main idea of this study is reporting auditors are risk-

averse. The estimated risk imposes incremental uncertainty on the risk-

averse auditors and consequently, affects their behaviors. On the other

hand, our findings suggest that auditors are more conservative when they

face a greater risk. Auditors are cautious about their professional

responsibility and social accountability related to the bankruptcy of their

client firms. Auditors get more conservative along with the increase of the

estimated risk.

Keywords: Audit Risk, Auditor Conservatism, Estimation Risk of

Bankruptcy, Audit Fee, Going Concern Opinion.

Citition: Foroughi Abari, M., Foroughi, D., Kazemi, I. (2020). Analysis

of the impact of bankruptcy risk estimation on auditor conservatism.

Journal of Accounting Knowledge, 11(3), 67-97.

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S�"���� �/ 1.Lennox and Kausar 2.Barron, Pratt and Stice

3.Basu , Hwang and Jan 4.Basu

5. Dhaliwal, Huang, Khurana and Pereira 6.Campbell and Mutchler

7.Chen and Church 8.Hopwood, McKeown and Mutchler

9.Willenborg and MacKeown 10.Kausar, Taffler and Tan

11.Menon and Williams 12.Blay, Geiger and North

13.Carson, Fargher, Geiger, Lennox, Raghunandan and Willekens

14.Gutierrez, Minutti-Meza and Vulcheva 15.Palmrose

16.Firth 17.Carcello and Palmrose

18.Lys and Watts 19.Weil

20.Litigation

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23.Standard errors 24.Incremental risk

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25.Risk averse auditors 26.A second-moment risk

27.Kapln and Williams 28.DeFond, Lim and Zang

29. Zmijewski 30. Shirata

31. Shumway 32. Bharat and Shumway

33. Campbell, Hilscher and Szilagyi 34. Correia, Richardson and Tuna

35. Beaver, Correira and McNichols

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37. Greene 38. DeFond, Raghunandan and Subramanyam

39.Francis and Yu 40.Liquidity

41.Huang and Scholz 42. Larcker and Richardson

43. Venkataraman, Weber and Willenborg 44. Hribar, Kravet and Wilson

45. Lee and Okui 46. Hausman and McFadden

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