Analysis Process

Dr. Jerrell T. Stracener, SAE Fellow

UPDATED 01.15.08

Leadership in Engineering

EMIS 7305: Systems Reliability, Supportability and Availability Analysis

Systems Engineering ProgramDepartment of Engineering Management, Information and Systems

Purpose of Analysis

To impact the decision-making process

The Analysis Process

1. Define the problem and formulate an objective

2. Identify the analysis options for accomplishing the objective and down-select to the preferred option.

3. Perform the analysis and draw conclusions

4. Present the analysis results, both technically and from the layperson perspective

Problem Solving Approach

• Define the problem• Visualize• Diagram• Review the problem definition & objective• Formulate possible alternates for solving theproblem and down select to the preferred method• Solve the problem• Review the results and prepare report• Present report

AFSAA TRAINING -- “STEP #1 OF THE SCIENTIFIC

METHOD:DEFINING THE PROBLEM”

byRoy E. Rice, Ph.D., P.E.

AF OR FAM Course25 Apr 2005

DEFINING THE PROBLEM

• Introduction• The Scientific Method• The Role of the People involved in the Analysis• Explanation of established procedures• The Template• Examples

Outline

INTRODUCTION

Decision Making = choosing among alternatives

Objective / Question

Analyst (analysts, scientists, engineers, etc)

Models (analytical, simulations, etc.)

Data / Assumptions

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The product of decision makers

Choices will be made with or without analysis

Key pillars of analysisHelping the decision maker understand problems and

candidate solutions

The foundations of credible analysis

Tools, techniques, and infor-mation surrounding the art of timely, informative support to

decision makers

Role of Analysis

INTRODUCTION

The EssentialIngredients of

Analysis

Objective/Question

Analyst

Model(s)Data/Assumptions

THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

• Define the Problem• Develop Alternatives• Develop Criteria to distinguish among alternatives• Develop “measures” of the criteria• Determine Analytic Methodology (to include DOE)• Determine “tool(s)” to execute the methodology• Gather data• Exercise “tool(s)”• Analyze results• Report Results

Typically we jump to these steps

Typically we spend the least amount of our time in this step

“Operations research is a scientific method of providing executive departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control.” -- Morse and Kimball

THE NATO C2 CODE OF BEST PRACTICES (COBP)- DRAFT

PerformProblem

Formulation

DevelopSolutionStrategy

EstablishMoM

I dentifyScenarios

EstablishMethods & Tools

& Req.

StudyProducts

RepresentHuman/ Org.

I ssues

R

R

I

StudyRisk

Data Collection& Analysis Plan

Risk & Uncertainty

Study

R External Review

I I nternal Review

What How

Flawed

Acceptable

Acceptable Risk

Unacceptable Risk

FormulatedProblem

SolutionStrategy

DEFINE THE PROBLEM

• Step 1 – “Define Problem”

• Step 1a (Roy’s Rule)– “Define the Problem again…because you didn’t do it

right the first time!”

• Step 1b (Vince Roske’s Rule)– “First find out what the question is - then find out

what the real question is!”

• EXAMPLE: Close Air Support Study in J8

“It often occurs that the major contribution of the operations research worker is to decide what is the real problem.” -- Morse and Kimball

DEFINE THE PROBLEM- WHY? -

• Perfectly right answer to the totally wrong question!• Probably waste resources• Probably lose Credibility• NATO COBP - DRAFT

– “In the initial problem formulation iteration, it is critical to begin with an understanding of the REAL problem rather than a determination to apply readily available tools, scenarios, and data.”

– “Explicit problem formulation must precede construction of concepts for analysis or method selection…Proper resourcing of problem formulation activities will improve the overall efficiency and quality of the study.”

– “An understanding of the decisions to be supported by the analysis and the viewpoints of the various stakeholders is essential to clarifying the study issues.”

THE ROLE OF THE PEOPLE INVOLVED IN PROBLEM DEFINITION

• The Decision Maker– Communicate the “context” of the Problem– “Buy into” the Problem and Solution Approach– Provide “Heading Checks”– Have Open Door– Commitment vs. Participation - “ham & eggs”

• The Mid-level Manager– Be a Conduit - Major General Robinson (J8)

• “What does your FINAL chart look like?”

– Must understand analysis - what it can/cannot do

• The Analyst– Articulate the Problem back to D.M.– Must put himself/herself in the D.M.’s shoes

Problem Definition is an Iterative Process

EXPLANATION OF ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES

• Initial Diagnosis– Identify critical factors– What the principle decisions are– What the MOEs are– Tradeoffs to compare alternatives

• Problem Elements– Controllable or decision variables– Uncontrollable variables– Restrictions or constraints on the variables– Objectives for defining a good or improved solution– “Confines” of the analysis - multifold impacts

Principles of Management Science - Wagner

EXPLANATION OF ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES

• Decision Objectives - goal of the decision• Problem Context

– Stakeholders– Triggers– Influences

• Problem Boundaries– Timeframe– Rule sets– Facts– Assumptions

• Analytic Objectives

Naval War College Pub

EXPLANATION OF ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES

• Context of the study– Geopolitical context that bounds the problem space– Political, social, historical, economic, geographic, technological

environments– Actors– Threats– Aim and objectives of the analysis, including the decisions to be supported– Generic C2 issues– Relevant previous studies

• Aspects of the problem– Issues to be addressed– Assumptions– High-level MoMs– Independent variables (controllable and uncontrollable)– Constraints on the values of the variables (domain and range)

NATO COBP - DRAFT

EXPLANATION OF ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES

• Rice’s Method (from Dr. Bill Lesso, University of Texas at

Austin)

Given:

The problem is to:

By choice of:

Subject to:

RICE’S METHOD

Given: set the environment; state your assumptions

The problem is to: clear statement of the specific problem to be solved

By choice of: determine the decision variables

Subject to: determine the constraints and restrictions

RICE’S METHOD

Given:- what is the timeframe of the study?- what scenario(s) are applicable?- what alternatives are to be used?- what are “fixed” parameters?- who are the players?- what are the threats?

RICE’S METHOD

Given: The problem is to: - not “to analyze” or “to study”- not a statement of fact (e.g., “we have a

pilot shortage”)- address the causes not the symptoms- what are you really trying to quantify or

measure?- probably related to operational

objectives- what...

TYPES OF MILITARY OR PROBLEMS

- Combat Analysis- - Land- - Air- - Naval- - Amphibious

- Resource Allocation

- Military Operational Testing

- Logistics Analysis

- Transportation Analysis

- Operations Planning

- Military Weapon System Acq.

Math methods of Attrition Fire AllocationKill-chainManeuverSearch TheorySimulationNumerical Methods

Probability TheroyMarkov ChainsStoch Processes

OptimizationMicroeconomicsDecision Analysis

D.O.E.SamplingStats/ANOVA/Hypothesis TestingData Analysis

Reliability & MaintainabilitySupply Support

- Neg Binomial- Poisson Proc.

Network ProgrammingQueuingThroughput Analysis

Game TheoryDeliberate Planning - TPFFD Feasibility

Rqts. DefinitionCost-benefit AnalysisAoACost Analysis

RICE’S METHOD

Given: The problem is to: By choice of: - what are the decision variables?- what does the decision maker get to

“play with”?- what does he/she have control over?- what...

RICE’S METHOD

Given:The problem is to: By choice of:Subject to: - constraints - hard; inviolable (e.g., distances,

24 hours in a day, ramp space)- restrictions - man-made (e.g., start times)- what are the constraints on the variables?- what might you want to perform sensitivity

analysis on?

EXAMPLES

EXAMPLE #1: Mobility Requirements Study - 1991

Given: 2005 Scenario with delivery schedulesUnits to be movedLift assets, capacities, and cycle timesAnnualized costsCost of prepositioning

The problem is to: determine whether a proposed mix of lift assets is adequate to meet requirements to close the force on time, and if not, determine the minimum cost mix which will meet requirementsBy choice of: the number & types of additional lift assets

Prepositioning Lift timing & taskings

Subject to: Time windows (ALD’s & RDD’s)Air & sea throughputSustainment build-up policyInitial inventory of lift assetsPrepositioning limitsAir/sea mode mixPAX arrival limits

EXAMPLE #2: Strategic Force Mix Study

Given: the most probable definition of the nuclear threat over the planning horizon and the best estimate of the effectiveness of all possible nuclear weapons to counter that threat,

The problem is to: develop the minimum cost strategic force structure (Triad platforms and weapons)

By choice of: the number & types of nuclear weapon systems that will make up the strategic arsenal in each year of the period under examination,

Subject to: constraints on sufficiency goals by which to measure force effectiveness; START limits, arsenal size and shape; production-destruction-and conversion rates; and the requirement to maintain or improve effectiveness during the transition period.

SUMMARY

• Follow the Scientific Method• Step 1: Problem Definition is the most critical

step• Problem Definition is an iterative process

– Must get Decision Maker commitment

• Procedures:– NATO C2 COBP– Rice’s Method

“In section 3.4.4 is reported a case where it was nearly decided that it was not worth while to put antiaircraft guns on merchant vessels because they did not shoot down enemy planes. It took an operations research worker to point out that, even though the enemy planes were not shot down, the antiaircraft guns were valuable because they decreased the accuracy of the enemy planes enough to lessen the chance that the merchant vessel be sunk..” -- Morse and Kimball