analysis review

quarterly

vto anl

energetics

ornl nrel snl

ta engineering sra/sentech

jake ward amgad elgowainy, aymeric rousseau, tom stephens, michael wang, joann zhou alicia birky, salil deshpande stacy davis, zhenhong lin, changzheng liu aaron brooker, mark singer becky levinson, dawn manley jim moore, charles taylor russ campbell, jonathan ford, karen sikes 29 june 2015

15.1 1 Q 2 0 1 5

>

1

topics

energy markets automotive markets technologies studies environmental studies consumer & opinion surveys policy studies

outline

1

qar

2

energy markets

oil markets > EIA: Oil and gas prices are still at 10-year lows. > Oil and gas prices have rebounded (~33%) since ~$45/bbl-low in January (but still

at 10-year low).

global supply and demand outlooks > EIA/BP/ExxonMobil/IEA: Global energy outlooks mostly aligned. > EIA/BP/ExxonMobil/IEA: Global transportation energy demand increases; U.S.

stays level. > EIA/BP/IEA: World oil production increases, despite U.S. production leveling off. > EIA/BP/ExxonMobil/IEA: World oil production and transportation energy demand

increases keep pace.

alternative fuels > EIA: Non-petroleum share of transportation energy at highest level since 1954.

1

3

oil markets EIA: Oil and gas prices are still at 10-year lows >

4

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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Gas

olin

e P

rice

($

/gal

)

Oil

Pri

ce (

$/b

bl)

Oil (WTI, $/bbl) Oil (WTI, 2014$/bbl)

Gasoline (NYH, $/gal) Gasoline (NYH, 2014$/gal)

Source: EIA, http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm

oil markets EIA: Oil and gas prices have rebounded (~33%) since ~$45/bbl-low in January (but still at 10-year low). >

Source: EIA, http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm 5

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6/23/2014 8/12/2014 10/1/2014 11/20/2014 1/9/2015 2/28/2015 4/19/2015 6/8/2015

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olin

e p

rice

($

/gal

)

Oil

pri

ce (

$/b

bl)

Oil (WTI, $/bbl) Gasoline (NYH, $/gal)

global supply and demand EIA/BP/ExxonMobil/IEA: Global energy outlooks mostly aligned. >

Source: BP, EIA, ExxonMobil 6

• EIA Annual Energy Outlook (April, 2015)

• EIA’s International Energy Outlook (November, 2014)

• BP Energy Outlook 2035 (February, 2015)

• ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy 2015 (December, 2014)

• IEA’s World Energy Outlook (November, 2014)

global supply and demand EIA/BP/ExxonMobil/IEA: Global transportation energy demand increases, despite U.S. staying level. >

Source: BP, EIA, ExxonMobil, IEA 7

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

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rgy

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World, North America, and U.S. Transportation Energy Demand (“TED”)

IEA World TED

BP World TED

Exxon World TED

Exxon N.Am. TED

BP N.Am. TED

Exxon US TED

EIA US TED

IEA US TED

global supply and demand EIA/BP/IEA: World oil production increases, despite U.S. production leveling off.

>

Source: BP, EIA, ExxonMobil, IEA 8

0

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

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World, North America, and U.S. Oil Production

EIA World Prod

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BP World Prod

BP N.Am. Prod

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EIA US Prod

* EIA data only includes OECD North America

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EIA World Dmnd

IEA World Dmnd

BP World Dmnd

Exxon World Dmnd

IEA World TED

BP World TED

Exxon World TED

BP N.Am. Dmnd

Exxon N.Am. Dmnd

BP N.Am. TED

Exxon N.Am. TED

EIA US Dmnd

IEA US Dmnd

Exxon US Dmnd

Exxon US TED

petroleum markets EIA/BP/ExxonMobil/IEA: World oil production and transportation energy demand increases keep pace. >

Source: BP, EIA, ExxonMobil, IEA 9

World Oil Consumption

World TED

N.Am. and U.S. TED and Oil Consumption

global supply and demand EIA/BP/ExxonMobil/IEA: Global energy outlooks mostly aligned. >

Source: BP, EIA, ExxonMobil, IEA 10

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World, North America, U.S. Oil Consumption and Production Outlook (Indexed to 2010)

EIA US Prod

EIA N.Am.* Prod

BP N.Am. Prod

IEA World Prod

BP World TED

Exxon World TED

IEA World TED

BP World Dmnd

Exxon World Dmnd

EIA World Dmnd

IEA World Dmnd

BP World Prod

EIA World Prod

BP N.Am. Dmnd

Exxon N.Am. Dmnd

Exxon US Dmnd

EIA US Dmnd

BP N.Am. TED

Exxon N.Am. TED

Exxon US TED

EIA US TED

IEA US Dmnd

IEA US TED

N.Am. and U.S. Oil Production

World Production, TED, and Total Demand

N.Am. and U.S. TED and Total Demand

alternative fuels EIA: Non-petroleum share of transportation energy at highest level since 1954. >

Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21272 11

0

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Qu

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Petroleum Coal

Natural Gas Biomass

Electricity

topics

energy markets automotive markets technologies studies environmental studies consumers/opinion surveys policy studies

outline

2

qar

12

automotive markets

vehicle sales > FOTW: U.S. 2014 PEV sales highest in the world, and among highest per capita. > FOTW: PEV sales total nearly 120,000 units in 2014; nearly 300,000 cumulatively.

vehicle trends > ANL: Range-extension technologies increasingly attractive away from city center. > ANL: PEV sales per capita increase as population density declines (and moreso for PHEVs

than BEVs). > FOTW: PEV penetration varies (sometimes greatly) by state. > FOTW: BEV-to-PHEV ratios differ (sometimes greatly) by state. > FOTW: HEV sales also vary by state, and is somewhat correlated with state PEV sales. > Navigant: Start-stop and alt-fuel vehicles comprise over 70% and 13%, respectively, of

global LDV sales in 2035 > Navigant: Global share of conventional ICE vehicles falls to under 40% by 2035. > Navigant: North American market shrinks from over 20% of global LDV sales in 2015 to

over 15% in 2035.

PEV depreciation > NADA: National Automobile Dealers’ Association publishes 3-year depreciation rates for

PEVs. > ANL: BEVs may depreciate comparably to ICEVs, pending further study (e.g., incentives?). > ANL: PHEVs may depreciate more than ICEVs, pending further study (e.g., incentives?).

2

13

vehicle sales FOTW: U.S. 2014 PEV sales highest in the world, and among highest per capita. >

14 Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-878-june-22-2015-plug-vehicle-penetration-selected-countries-2014

vehicle sales FOTW: PEV sales total nearly 120,000 units in 2014; nearly 300,000 cumulatively. >

15 Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-873-may-18-2015-plug-vehicle-sales-total-nearly-120000-units-2014

ev incentives FOTW: PEV penetration varies (sometimes greatly) by state. >

16 Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-876-june-8-2015-plug-electric-vehicle-penetration-state-2014

ev incentives FOTW: BEV-to-PHEV ratios differ (sometimes greatly) by state. >

17 Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-877-june-15-2015-which-states-have-more-battery-electric-vehicles-plug-hybrids

ev incentives FOTW: HEV sales also vary by state, and is somewhat correlated with state PEV sales. >

18 Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-875-june-1-2015-hybrid-electric-vehicle-penetration-state-2014

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vehicle trends ANL: Range-extension technologies increasingly attractive away from city center. >

19 Source: Zhou, Y. ANL (2015); Registration data provided by NREL.

All PEVs (data on Chicago metro area)

BMW i3s (data on Chicago metro area)

vehicle trends ANL: PEV sales per capita increase as population density declines (and moreso for PHEVs than BEVs). >

20 Source: Zhou, Y. ANL (2015).

Note: population densities considered:

vehicle trends Navigant: Start-stop and alt-fuel vehicles comprise over 70% and 13%, respectively, of global LDV sales in 2035. >

21 Source: “Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles,” Navigant Research Report, Published 2Q 2015.

World LDVs sales by drivetrain

(Start-Stop Vehicles)

vehicle trends Navigant: Global share of conventional ICE vehicles falls to under 40% by 2035. >

22 Acronyms: SSV – Start-Stop Vehicle; PAGV – Propane; CONV = Conventional ICEV Source: “Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles,” Navigant Research Report, Published 2Q 2015.

World LDVs in use (total stock) by drivetrain

vehicle trends Navigant: North American market shrinks from over 20% of global LDV sales in 2015 to over 15% in 2035. >

23 Source: “Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles,” Navigant Research Report, Published 2Q 2015.

World LDV sales by region

PEV depreciation NADA: National Automobile Dealers’ Association publishes 3-year depreciation rates for PEVs. >

24 Source: NADA (2015), Source: http://img03.en25.com/Web/NADAUCG/%7B413f55a5-807f-4b2e-8310-48cd4aeb40da%7D_April_2015_NADA_Perspective.pdf

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Tesla Model S

Toyota RAV4

BMW i3

Fiat 500e

Chevrolet Spark EV

Mercedes B-Class ED

Ford Focus Electric

Smart FORTWO ED

Nissan LEAF

Mitsubishi i-MiEV

Porsche Panamera S-E

Honda Accord PHV

Toyota Prius PHV

Ford Fusion Energi

Cadillac ELR

Chevrolet Volt

Ford C-Max Energi

All BEVs

All PHEVs

PEV depreciation ANL: BEVs may depreciate comparably to ICEVs; though, further study (e.g., incentives?) is important. >

25 Source: Zhou, Y. ANL (2015).

Notes: • ICEs include 13 models comparable to selected PEVs, PEV depreciation rates come from recently released

NADA report, ICE depreciation rates come from NADA guide; Information is for 2012-2014 models. • Federal incentive is up to $7500 as a function of battery size; CA provides $2500 incentive for BEVs and

$1500 for PHEVs

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All BEVs withFederal&CA StateIncentive

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All PHEVs with NoIncentive

All PHEVs with FederalIncentive

All PHEVs withFederal&CA StateIncentive

PEV depreciation ANL: PHEVs may depreciate more than ICEVs; though, further study (e.g., incentives?) is important. >

26 Source: Zhou, Y. ANL (2015).

Notes: • ICEs include 13 models comparable to selected PEVs, PEV depreciation rates come from recently released

NADA report, ICE depreciation rates come from NADA guide; Information is for 2012-2014 models. • Federal incentive is up to $7500 as a function of battery size; CA provides $2500 incentive for BEVs and

$1500 for PHEVs

topics

energy markets automotive markets technologies studies environmental studies consumers/opinion surveys policy studies

outline

3 qar

27

technologies studies

vehicle technology > FOTW: GDI captures 38% market share in just 7 years from first significant use. > FOTW: Technology advances facilitate co-improvement of power, acceleration,

and, recently, fuel economy. > ANL: Potential alt-fuel vehicle fuel savings1 differ by technology and average

speed

ev infrastructure > FOTW: Number of [public] EV charging outlets continues to increase

3

28

vehicle technology FOTW: GDI captures 38% market share in just 7 years from first significant use. >

29 Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-869-april-20-2015-gasoline-direct-injection-captures-38-market-share-just-seven

vehicle technology FOTW: Technology advances facilitate co-improvement of power, acceleration, and, recently, fuel economy. >

30 Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-868-april-13-2015-automotive-technology-has-improved-performance-and-fuel-economy

vehicle technology ANL: Potential alt-fuel vehicle fuel savings1 differ by technology and average speed >

31 Source: Zhou, Y. ANL (2015).

Notes: • 1Potential fuel savings measured vs. conventional counterpart • Above estimates assumed 1.5 hours/day of use and 1 charge/day • MY2014 fuel efficiencies from fueleconomy.gov

High performance BEVs save much more than PHEVs

ev infrastructure FOTW: Number of [public] EV charging outlets continues to increase >

32

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argi

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tlet

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New York

North Carolina

Tennessee

Florida

Texas

Michigan

Illinois

Oregon

Washington

California

Arizona

Source: Davis, S. ORNL (2015); AFDC

topics

energy markets automotive markets technologies studies environmental studies consumers/opinion surveys policy studies

outline

4 qar

33

environmental studies

emissions > EIA: EPA’s Proposed Clean Power Plan rule cuts power sector CO2

emissions to lowest level since 1980s. > EIA: Under the proposed Clean Power Plan, natural gas, then

renewables, gain generation share. > ANL: GREET report concludes oil-sand emissions higher than those from

conventional sources.

4

34

emissions studies EIA: EPA’s Proposed Clean Power Plan rule cuts power sector CO2 emissions to lowest level since 1980s. >

Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21372

35

Ref. Case

~35%

Base Policy

~70%

Policy Ext’n.

~80%

Associated 2040 BEV emissions reduction opportunity

(vs. MY2015 ICEV)

emissions studies EIA: Under the proposed Clean Power Plan, natural gas, then renewables, gain generation share. >

Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21392

36

emissions studies ANL: GREET report concludes oil-sand emissions are higher than those from conventional sources. >

37 Source: Wang, M. ANL (2015).

topics

energy markets automotive markets technologies studies environmental studies consumers/opinion surveys policy studies

outline 5 qar

38

consumer & opinion surveys consumer preferences > NREL: Public opinion is split on PEV attractiveness, and the majority are

unlikely to even consider a PEV. > NREL: Most consumers cannot name a PEV model; though, most indicate

at least indirect PEV experience. > NREL: Most consumers can plug in at home; though, very few are aware

of away-from-home charging. > NREL: The median preferred range for consumers to consider purchasing

a BEV is 250-300 miles. > FOTW: >60% of Millennials and Gen-Xers use the internet to find a car

dealer.

travel behavior > EIA: On average, households with more vehicles travel more in each/all of

those vehicles.

5

39

consumer preferences NREL: Public opinion is split on PEV attractiveness, and the majority are unlikely to even consider a PEV. >

40 Source: Singer, M. NREL (2015).

consumer preferences NREL: Most consumers cannot name a PEV model; though, most indicate at least indirect PEV experience. >

41 Source: Singer, M. NREL (2015).

consumer preferences NREL: Most consumers can plug in at home; though, very few are aware of away-from-home charging. >

42 Source: Singer, M. NREL (2015).

consumer preferences NREL: The median preferred range for consumers to consider purchasing a BEV is 250-300 miles. >

43 Source: Singer, M. NREL (2015).

consumer preferences FOTW: >60% of Millennials and Gen-Xers use the internet to find a car dealer. >

44 Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-872-may-11-2015-study-finds-more-60-millennials-and-generation-xers-use-internet

travel behavior EIA: On average, households with more vehicles travel more in each of those vehicles. >

45 Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20832

topics

energy markets automotive markets technologies studies environmental studies consumers/opinion surveys policy studies

outline 6 qar

46

policy studies fuel economy regulation > FOTW: Corporate Average Fuel Economy has increased steadily since mid-2000s. > FOTW: Most manufacturers have positive CAFE credit balances at the end of

MY2013. > ICCT: HDV standards yield over one million barrels per day of oil savings from

2035–2050.

ev incentives > ORNL: new database reveals correlations between OEM incentives and MY sales

(Volt and Fusion Energi examples). > ORNL: OEM incentives available for vary by state (Volt and Fusion Energi

examples).

6

47

fuel economy FOTW: Corporate Average Fuel Economy has increased steadily since mid-2000s. >

Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-870-april-27-2015-corporate-average-fuel-economy-progress-1978-2014 48

fuel economy FOTW: Most manufacturers have positive CAFE credit balances at the end of MY2013. >

Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-871-may-4-2015-most-manufacturers-have-positive-cafe-credit-balances-end-model 49

fuel economy ICCT: HDV standards yield over one million barrels per day of oil savings from 2035–2050. >

Source: http://www.theicct.org/us-phase2-hdv-efficiency-ghg-regulations-policy-update 50

ev incentives ORNL: new database reveals correlations between OEM incentives and MY sales (Volt example). >

51 Source: Lin, Z. ORNL (2015).

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Chevrolet Volt Sales and OEM incentives By Month

2013 MY Sales

2014 MY Sales

2015 MY Sales

2013 MY OEM Incentive $

2014 MY OEM Incentive $

2015 MY OEM Incentive $

ev incentives ORNL: new database reveals correlations between OEM incentives and MY sales (Fusion Energi example). >

52 Source: Lin, Z. ORNL (2015).

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2014 MY Sales

2015 MY Sales

2013 MY OEM Incentive $

2014 MY OEM Incentive $

2015 MY OEM Incentive $

ev incentives ORNL: OEM incentives available for vary by state (Volt example). >

53 Source: Lin, Z. ORNL (2015).

ev incentives ORNL: OEM incentives available for vary by state (Prius Plug-in example). >

54 Source: Lin, Z. ORNL (2015).

energy

automotive

tech/enviro

opinion/policy

summary qar

>

15.1 1 Q 2 0 1 5

55

oil and gas prices are still at 10-year lows (despite calendar year 2015 rebound), and global energy outlooks are mostly aligned.

PEV sales grew in early 2015 (albeit more slowly); though, PEV markets differ (sometimes greatly) by state.

EPA’s Proposed Clean Power Plan offers more certainty to future PEV emissions reductions.

heterogeneity in consumer opinion/motivation along with heterogeneity in both public and private incentives complicates policy and technology considerations.

summary observations