analysisreview

quarterly

vtoanl

energeticslbnlornlnrelsnl

sra/sentechta engineering

dave gohlke, rachael nealer, jake wardjosh auld, amgad elgowainy, jarod kelly, eric rask, aymeric rousseau, tom stephens, michael wang, joann zhoualicia birkymark delucchi, anand gopal, sam saxena, margaret taylorstacy davis, zhenhong lin, changzheng liuaaron brooker, jeff gonder, marc melaina, mark singerbecky levinson, todd west russ campbell, karen sikesjim moore, charles taylor

19 september 2016

16.33 Q 2 0 1 6

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topics

energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies

outline

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qar

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energy markets

gasoline prices> EIA: Gasoline prices continue to be at lowest levels in a decade> FOTW: Price difference between regular and premium gasoline is growing

oil markets/production> FOTW: U.S. crude oil production highest in central U.S.> FOTW/EIA: Petroleum imports at lowest point in years> FOTW/EIA: Petroleum exports at highest point in years> EIA: Crude oil exports now delivered beyond just Canada

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gasoline pricesEIA: Lowest Labor Day gasoline prices in 12 years; higher prices than at beginning of year>

4Source: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=27792

gasoline pricesFOTW: Price difference between regular and premium gasoline has grown each year since 2011>

5Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-928-june-6-2016-price-difference-between-regular-and-premium-gasoline-has-grown

oil productionFOTW: U.S. crude oil production highest in central states>

6Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-933-july-11-2016-texas-north-dakota-and-gulf-mexico-account-two-thirds-us-crude

Rank State Production

1 Texas 3,457

2Federal Offshore (Gulf of Mexico)

1,540

3 North Dakota 1,174

4 California 553

5 Alaska 483

Total 9,430

Thousand barrels per day, 2015

oil marketsFOTW: More petroleum imports from Canada than all of OPEC since 2014>

7Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-934-july-18-2016-opec-accounts-less-one-third-us-petroleum-imports

oil marketsFOTW: Net petroleum imports at lowest point since 1985>

8Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-935-july-25-2016-volume-net-petroleum-imports-are-lowest-point-1985

oil marketsFOTW: Petroleum imports at lowest point in over a decade, petroleum exports near all-time high>

9Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-926-may-23-2016-petroleum-imports-below-200-billion-lowest-point-over-decade

oil marketsEIA: Crude oil exports (outside of Canada) increased this year; Canada now less than half of all exports>

10Source: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2016/160810/includes/analysis_print.cfm

topics

energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies

outline

2

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11

automotive markets

LDV market> ANL: Light trucks continue to outsell cars in the U.S.> CAR: Generation X car purchasing rates now similar to Baby Boomers

PEV market> ANL: EV sales set all-time monthly highs this summer> EV Volumes: EV sales up worldwide> FOTW: California has most EV registrations> FOTW: EVs available in many size classes; sales strong as gas prices fall

hybrid sales> Vincentric: Hybrid TCO higher than conventional ICE for many models> WSJ: Japanese Prius sales going strong with newest model

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LDV marketANL: Light trucks have outsold cars since August 2013; 60% of sales in 2016>

13Source: Y. Zhou, Argonne National Laboratory

LDV marketCAR: Generation X car purchasing rates now similar to Baby Boomer generation>

14Source: http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=138

LDV marketEdmunds: Vehicle leasing at all-time high; some luxury vehicle segments have over half of new vehicles leased>

15Source: http://static.ed.edmunds-media.com/unversioned/img/industry-center/analysis/h1-2016-lease-report.pdf

EV marketANL: EV sales set all-time monthly record high in the United States each month this summer>

16Source: http://www.anl.gov/energy-systems/project/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates

EV marketEV Volumes: EV sales up worldwide; China now biggest market>

17Source: http://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global-plug-in-vehicle-sales-h1-2016/

EV marketFOTW: California continues to lead in PEV registrations; lower uptake in most Midwestern and Southern states>

18Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-936-august-1-2016-california-had-highest-concentration-plug-vehicles-relative

EV marketPolk / Auto Alliance: PEV sales in Georgia plummeted after tax credit ended; monthly data online by state>

19Source: http://www.zevfacts.com/sales-dashboard.html

EV marketFOTW: EV share grew in most vehicle size classes even as gasoline prices fell>

20Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-930-june-20-2016-subcompact-plug-vehicle-sales-reached-4-subcompact-sales

EV marketFOTW: Larger EVs gaining prominence in market as new models are released>

21Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-931-june-27-2016-plug-electric-vehicles-were-available-nine-different-size

EV marketCSRA: OEM cash rebates similar in ZEV and non-ZEV states>

22Source: R. Campbell, CSRA International

hybrid costsVincentric: Many HEVs have higher total cost of ownership than comparable ICE vehicles>

23Source: http://vincentric.com/Home/Industry-Reports/Hybrid-Analysis-2016

hybrid costsWSJ: New Toyota Prius model selling well in Japan, not in U.S.>

24Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-prius-pays-price-for-cheap-gasoline-1473149470

topics

energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies

outline

3qar

25

technologies studies

vehicle technologies> ORNL: Some technologies available in cars/trucks faster than projected> Chetan Sharma: More cars added to 4G networks than phones

EV batteries and infrastructure> FOTW: EV ranges increasing, PHEV total range similar to most ICEVs> RMI: Smart charging could smooth daily electric grid load

fuels and engines> DOE/FOTW: Engine compression ratio has increased over last few

decades while typical octane levels remained the same

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vehicle technologiesORNL: Advanced fuel-saving technologies are being incorporated into cars faster than expected>

27Source: Z. Lin, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

vehicle technologiesORNL: Advanced fuel-saving technologies are being incorporated into trucks faster than expected>

28Source: Z. Lin, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

vehicle technologiesChetan Sharma: More cars than phones added to U.S. mobile networks this year>

29Source: http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq12016.htm

vehicle dependabilityJD Power: New vehicles reached best-reported reliability in MY2010>

30Source: http://www.jdpower.com/press-releases/2016-us-vehicle-dependability-study-vds and older press releases

battery capacityFOTW: Total battery capacity grows, while capacity hybrid packs decline>

31Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-937-august-8-2016-total-battery-capacity-all-plug-electric-vehicles-sold

EV rangeFOTW: All-electric vehicle ranges have increased since first introduced to U.S. market>

32Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-938-august-15-2016-median-all-electric-vehicle-range-grew-73-miles-model-year

EV rangeFOTW: Some all-electric vehicles, and most hybrids have comparable driving range to gasoline ICE vehicles>

33Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-939-august-22-2016-all-electric-vehicle-ranges-can-exceed-those-some-gasoline

EV rangeMIT: 87% of daily travel nationwide could be satisfied by 73-mile range BEV>

34Source: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.112

infrastructureRMI: Optimized charging can smooth electric demand>

35Source: http://www.rmi.org/evs_as_ders

fuels and enginesVTO: Historically there had been tight coupling between engine compression ratio and fuel octane level, this has diverged since 1980

>

36Sources: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/downloads/vehicle-technologies-office-merit-review-2016-overview-doe-fuel-and-0 and http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-940-august-29-2016-diverging-trends-engine-compression-ratio-and-gasoline-octane

topics

energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies

outline

4qar

37

environmental studies

emissions> EIA: Transportation emissions higher than electric sector emissions> IEA: World in danger of not reaching climate goals> FOTW: CAFE standards under review

cradle-to-grave analysis> US DRIVE: Many vehicle-fuel pathways exist in the near future> US DRIVE: Vehicle technology and advanced fuels are both necessary to reduce

emissions in the future> US DRIVE: Energy efficiency of vehicles will improve in the future> US DRIVE: Advanced technology vehicles will become more cost competitive in

future, can be used for carbon mitigation

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emissionsEIA via U Chicago: Transportation emissions have passed the electric sector for the first time in decades>

39Source: http://www.vox.com/2016/6/13/11911798/emissions-electricity-versus-transportation

emissions IEA: Electrified vehicles only technology sector on track to meet 2°C climate change scenarios>

40Source: http://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-there-are-now-more-than-one-million-electric-cars-on-the-worlds-roads?mc_cid=8ac837ffe5&mc_eid=6a2d24429f

emissionsIEA: EV sales need to maintain high growth to reach UN climate goals>

41Source: http://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11867894/electric-cars-global-sales

CAFE standardsFOTW/EPA: CAFE standards are currently under mid-term evaluation for 2022 to 2025>

42Sources: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-941-september-5-2016-mid-term-evaluation-corporate-average-fuel-economy-standards and https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/climate/mte.htm#tar

CAFE standardsEPA: Fuel economy and vehicles emissions have improved since 2005>

43Source: https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/climate/mte.htm#tar

cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: Vehicles and fuel improvements both needed to reduce LDV GHG emissions>

44Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report

cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: ICE vehicle emissions driven most by tailpipe emissions and fuel refining/delivery>

45Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report

cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: Current tech vehicles range from 1.1–2.3 kWh/mile; can be as low as 0.5 kWh/mile by 2025>

46Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report

cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: Over vehicle lifetime advanced technology vehicles more cost-competitive in future>

47Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report

cradle-to-grave analysisUS DRIVE: Modeled costs of avoided GHG emissions generally in range of approximately $50–$400/tonne>

48Source: https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-c2g-2016-report

topics

energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies

outline5 qar

49

consumer & opinion surveys

consumer sentiments> FOTW/NREL: Public opinion on importance of fuel economy varies with

gasoline price> Consumer Reports: People would like fuel economy to improve> IHS: Large differences in acceptance of CAVs by age group

travel behavior> UC Berkeley: Car-sharing may be replacing transit and ride-hailing> UC Berkeley: Availability of shared cars can supplant ownership> UC Berkeley: Car-sharing can reduce VMT and GHGs

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consumer sentimentsFOTW: Public opinion of most important vehicle attribute has varied over the years>

51Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-942-september-12-2016-fifteen-percent-survey-respondents-consider-fuel-economy

consumer sentimentsFOTW: Fuel economy being chosen as most important vehicle attribute is related to price of gasoline>

52Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-943-september-19-2016-fuel-economy-being-chosen-most-important-vehicle-attribute

consumer sentimentsCR: Most people think fuel efficiency standards will not hurt vehicle sales>

53Source: http://consumersunion.org/2016/06/2016-fe-consumer-survey/

consumer sentimentsCR / NRDC: Consumers feel automakers and the government should work toward better fuel economy>

54Sources: http://consumersunion.org/news/2016-fuel-economy-survey/ (May 11–18, 2016 survey – 1052 adults) and https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/attitudesairpollutionfuelefficiency.pdf (July 21–24, 2016 survey – 1012 adults)

consumer sentimentsBCG/WEF: Many consumers worldwide willing to consider self-driving vehicles>

55Source: https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/automotive-public-sector-self-driving-vehicles-robo-taxis-urban-mobility-revolution/

travel behaviorUC Berkeley: Car-sharing can reduce car ownership and total VMT/GHG emissions>

56Source: http://innovativemobility.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Impactsofcar2go_FiveCities_2016.pdf

travel behaviorUC Berkeley: Car-sharing can reduce transit ridership and ride-hailing, possibly increase physical activity>

57Source: http://innovativemobility.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Impactsofcar2go_FiveCities_2016.pdf

topics

energy marketsautomotive marketstechnologies studiesenvironmental studiesconsumers & opinion surveyspolicy & business studies

outline6 qar

58

policy & business studies

policy> IEA: Many EV policies exist globally> Mineta: People becoming more accepting of gas tax increases

HDV regulations> FOTW/DOT: Trucking regulations vary by state> DOT: Decreased speed and load improve fuel economy

vehicle ownership> DePaul: Car-sharing often subject to high taxes> NBER: Uber surge rates vary by time of day, reduce ridership> CAR/Certify: Ride-hailing now leading business expense for local travel

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worldwide policiesIEA: Many policies exist globally to support EV uptake>

60Source: http://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11867894/electric-cars-global-sales

gasoline taxesMineta: People generally becoming more willing to have gas tax increases

>

61Source: http://transweb.sjsu.edu/PDFs/research/1528-road-and-transit-taxes-public-opinion-survey-2016.pdf

heavy trucksFOTW: Longer combination trucks only permitted on some routes>

62Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-932-july-4-2016-longer-combination-trucks-are-only-permitted-some-routes

heavy trucksFOTW: Truck speed limits vary from state-to-state>

63Source: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-929-june-13-2016-heavy-truck-speed-limits-are-inconsistent

heavy trucksDOT: Fuel economy for heavy trucks lower at high speeds; DOT considering national HDV speed limits>

64Source: https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=FMCSA-2014-0083

vehicle ownershipDePaul: Transaction-based taxes for short-term rentals lead to high effective tax rates on carsharing>

65Source: http://las.depaul.edu/centers-and-institutes/chaddick-institute-for-metropolitan-development/research-and-publications/Pages/default.aspx

vehicle ownershipNBER: Uber ‘surge’ pricing varies throughout the week; people vary their purchase behavior accordingly>

66Source: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22627

vehicle ownershipCAR / Certify: Ridehailing now leading business expense for ground transportation in the U.S.>

67Source: http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=138

energy

automotive

tech/enviro

opinion/policy

summaryqar

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16.33 Q 2 0 1 6

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Gasoline prices are still low; U.S. exports on rise; Crude oil

now allowed to be exported outside of U.S./Canada

U.S. EV monthly sales at all-time highs; ‘trucks’ currently

more popular than ‘cars’ in United States

Advanced technology is being deployed faster than

expected; battery ranges are increasing; transportation now

leading sector for CO2 emissions in United States

Fuel economy importance correlated with gasoline prices;

people becoming more willing to have gas tax increases;

ride-hailers have strong price sensitivity

summary observations