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Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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Page 1: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBUWilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS)

11 December, 2003

Page 2: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

0 2

New WCS Business model was implemented in 2001

A client-led approach and focus on profitable Financial Institutions and Large Caps

Integrated wholesale offering

Significant proportion of revenues from annuity and flow products

Efficient resource management and allocation process (capital and people)

Focus on asset quality and independent risk management

Supported by a transformation in infrastructure

Page 3: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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Restructuring has clearly improved performance, thanks to …

Net profit WCS (EUR mln)

Q1 02 was negatively affected by restructuring costs related closure of US Equities and Corporate Finance businesses, while Q2 02 was negatively affected by high provisioning related to unexpected losses in the US.

134110

(20)

63

(44)

(125)

(188)

34

(29)

106

76

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03

Net Profit Net Profit (excl. extraord results)

Page 4: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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… focus on selected clients

Client service is differentiating factor– client satisfaction surveys show overall service improvement with

selected clients across a number of products

– we have been able to improve our market share and rankings

Client revenues account for 83% of WCS revenues, generating relatively stable and high quality earnings

Page 5: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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* Loan book only (calculation based on nii run rate)

… active capital management

The constant turnover of capital made it

possible to increase revenues whilst

reducing RWA, thereby improving the

‘Annualised Net Interest Income / RWA’

over time

Credit RAROC of deals originated in

2003 has increased substantially

compared to the average RAROC of

the portfolio in 2002

Ann. NII / Av. RWA*

1.23%

1.79%

2002 YTD 2003

Page 6: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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and strict cost control

FTEs and operating expenses since Q1 01

22464

2335023617

2242322206

2095720556

20238

18139 18076 18077

1,301

1405

1357

12391263

1154

10811052

10311052

1095

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03

17000

18500

20000

21500

23000

24500

FTE (r.a.) Expenses (EUR mln, l.a.)

Page 7: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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Momentum will increase in 2004, driven by higher revenue growth

WCS revenues are expected to increase on the back of further improvements across all client and product BUs– We expect a continuing increase in market share with our P&K clients

– higher revenues from the BU FM are based on specific new initiatives in Credit, Rates and FX activities as well as continuing benefits from repricing in PMG

– higher revenues from the BU WoCa expected from enhanced offer, geographic and client focus and cost efficient delivery

– the BU Equities and BU Corporate Finance are well positioned to benefit from better market conditions. The BU Equities will also benefit from investments in derivatives

– Private Equity should benefit from increased exit opportunities

Structural approach to cost savings provides cushion to invest further in core clients and product franchises

Provisioning is expected to trend lower

Page 8: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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Supported by growth initiatives

Financial Markets

Enhancing mature businesses

(incl. FX, MM/Repo, Vanilla

IRD)

Investing in growth spikes

(Derivatives, Retail, Structured

Credit)

Working Capital

Working Capital Offer

C&P initiatives

FI insourcing

FIPS

Hedge Funds

Investor Coverage

Financial Sponsors

Services

Offshoring

EMEA Footprint

EDS Outsourcing

European Payments

Structured Risk Interface

Page 9: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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And Business Portfolio Optimisation

Sale of Prime Brokerage

Exit of non core countries/business

New strategy PE

Continuing review of client portfolio

Page 10: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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1 These statements are based on the underlying revenue and cost base (excluding Prime Brokerage business)

We expect WCS to provide a significant delta in 2004

Net Profit in Q4 2003 is expected to be higher than in Q3 20031

We expect net profit in 2004 to be in line with the Q4 2003 run rate1

– revenues are expected to increase in 2004 compared to FY 2003 on the basis of growing market share with our clients, investments and a differentiated business model

– the cost base will be managed on a dynamic basis

– provisioning as % of RWA is expected to be below 50 basis points

Page 11: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

Appendices

Page 12: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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We are delivering on our commitments

Commitments:

WCS Model:

Client focus and client-led, P&K in particular

Integrated wholesale offering

Integrating BU Loan Products and BU Global Financial Markets

Develop and grow a new working capital offer

Re-position Equities and Corporate Finance to defensible positions

Achievements:

WCS Model:

Client BU revenues account for over 80% of total WCS revenues, with P&K over 50%

Integrated delivery of corporate and investment banking products and services

Integration is implemented and new BU Financial Markets is showing positive results

Working Capital offer is implemented and will be further developed in 2004

Closure of US Equities and Corporate Finance business and focus on Europe

Page 13: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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We are delivering on our commitments

Commitments:

Reduction of cost base:

Closure of unprofitable businesses

Transformation in infrastructure (a.o.TOPS savings of EUR 430 mln and IT outsourcing to EDS)

Decrease in RWA:

Decrease in RWA to EUR 70 bn by 2004, from EUR 100 bn (Q2 01)

EP positive returns:

WCS should be EP positive from 03 onwards

Achievements:

Reduction of cost base:

Cost base down by 22% from EUR 4.063 mln in Sept YTD 01 to EUR 3,178 mln in Sept YTD 03. Savings from EDS will be seen from 2004 onwards

Decrease in RWA:

RWA at EUR 65.0 bn (end Q3 03)

EP positive returns:

Q3 03 was EP positive. Q4 03 and

FY 2004 are expected to be at least EP positive

Page 14: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

Jun. 02 Sep. 02 Dec. 02 Mar. 03 Jun. 03 Sep. 03

TMTH Int. Energy

Automotive & Industrials Consumer

WCS Portfolio

Lower provisioning on the back of improved asset quality

Provisioning Asset quality (average UCRs)

92

40

90

321

111

345.0

141.0145.0 156

8354

0.48

0.33

0.900.770.68

0.47

1.55

1.34

0.37

0.16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q101

Q201

Q301

Q401

Q102

Q202

Q302

Q402

Q103

Q203

Q303

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Provisioning (EUR mln, l.a.)

Provisioning as % of RWA (r.a.)

Page 15: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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Reduction in RWA largely due to autonomous change

Changes in RWA: Impact of FX-effect, CLO, Credit Default Swaps and Secondary

Loan Sales on reduction in RWA

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

H2 01 FY 2002 Sept 03 YTD

Autonomous change CLO impact FX-effect

Credit Default Swaps Secondary Loan Sales

Page 16: Analyst & Investor Meeting Wholesale Clients SBU Wilco Jiskoot - Member of the Managing Board (Chairman of WCS) 11 December, 2003

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WCS consensus forecast

New estimates 2004

Market consensus

Market consensus Low High

(Eur m) Average Median

Total revenues 5,404 5,361 5,012 5,851 Operating expenses 4,290 4,295 4,165 4,593 Operating result 1,114 1,159 712 1,301 Provisioning 306 302 210 385 Pre-tax profit 808 798 467 1,026 Net profit 545 549 310 696