analyst presentation: 2013-2017 business plan
DESCRIPTION
Analyst presentation: 2013-2017 business planTRANSCRIPT
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Index
Business plan up to 2017
Business Plan updateRecent developmentsStrategyStrategic targets vs. 2012Ebitda growth driversRemarkable step forwardEbitda by strategic areasNetworkWasteEnergyCapexFinancial performanceGeographical expansionSwap participation with ENIShare capital increaseClosing remarks
456789
10111213141516171819
Annex
AssumptionsChange in GovernanceConsolidated Group EbitFinancial StrategySustainable DevelopmentNetwork detailsWaste detailsEnergy detailsBusiness plan by businessPortfolio mixDisclamer
2021222324252830313536
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Introducing business plan update with recent events
4
-22m€ impact mainly in wasteSupportive achievements of last 6 months to be included in BP to 2017
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Recent developments influencing business plan update to 2017
5Coincident wave of relevant changes on all businesses
Regulatory “review”• Review of Gas supply prices (“CCI”)• Gas Distribution new tariffs (4th regulatory
period)• Change on renewable incentives
(CIP6/CEC)• New transition water tariff system
Macro economic scenario
Persistently negative scenario determines a rebound of Italian GDP slower than expected.Real estate industry in still negative outlook.Consumptions still decreasing with competition on lower demand.
Antitrust position on JV with ITG
Antirust “red light” to the Joint Venture between Acegas Aps and Italgas in Veneto/Friuli determinates a review of Hera strategy to face gas tenders in the area.
M&A and portfolio review
• Acegas Aps and Energonut mergers (+5m€Ebitda)
• Rationalization of peripheral shareholdings (total value of 140m€)
• New opportunities for consolidation (e.g. ENI swap participation, Amga Udine)
-21m€ Ebitda impact
+5m€ Ebitda impact
-22m€ Ebitda impact
+10m€ Ebitda impact
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3
Continuing to keep on course, sticking to our strategy
6
Focus on efficiency gains
Activities reorganisation (divisionalization), streamlining Group structure.Rationalization and Cost Cutting. Exploiting synergies from mergers.
“Adapt and react”
Expand downstream
Leveraging upon core services, focusing quality, customer relations and cross selling with a multi-regional scope
“Exploit new referencemarkets”
Merger & Acquisition
Execute deal in progressPursue M&A selecting new opportunities
“Create value through M&A strategy execution”
Adapting and reacting keeping focus on profitable growth
2
4
Strengthening regulated asset base
Maintain control of networks on ref. territory and investing in efficiency
“Going for a low risk profile”
1
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Regulated business:58% Ebitda
~75% of Group capex
12 gas tenders in ref. territory• POD: +178K• Ebitda: +19m€
Efficiencies
Reorganization & Cost rationalization: +20m€ Ebitda
Energy customer base:
2.2 m clients
Electricity: up to ~1 millionGas: about 1.3 million
M&A• Acegas Aps: Integration activities on track
• Amga Udine & portfolio reshuffling:Ebitda: +10m€ (net impact)
• Aimag: Ebitda: ~44m€, ‘12 Net debt: 100 m€
99 114Ebitda/Employee (’k€)
EPS cagr. +5.0%
3.3x 2.9xD/Ebitda
Main strategic targets versus 2012
3
1 2
4
Synergies from M&A: +30m€ Ebitda
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662
951
+129+30
+57+19
+54
300
500
700
900
2012 Acegas APS2012
Mergersynergies
Organic Gas tender M&A +reshufling
E2017
Ebitda growth leveraging upon “all” drivers
Gas tendersConfirming current gas distribution concessions
(implying fulfilment of current territories served by Hera with additional 178k POD)
M&AAimag (waiting for political election H1’14).
Review on peripheral activities.
M&A in new reference territories.
Org
anic
Mer
ger S
yner
gies
+7.5% Cagr.
Waste treatm. new plant: +26m€
Network :+7% POD/employee
Reorganisation +10m€ Ebitda
Network mgmt19%
Waste operations24%
Energy trading & sales18%
Procurement and G&A39%
Regulated tariff increases
8
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Remarkable step forward in business size
9
Gas sold & traded (bcm) 3.5 3.4Electricity sold (TWh) 9.5 ~10Energy clients (m unit) 1.7 2.2
Sector Key Industrial targets 2012 E2017
Volume of waste treated from 3rd parties (m ton)
3.3 5.3
Urban waste collected (m ton) 1.7 2.3
Network length (‘000 km) 73.1 86.7Gas POD (m unit) 1.2 1.8Heat sold (GWht) 530 643
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Ebitda by strategic areas
10
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310
486
+86 +13+28 +19
+30
250
450
2012 Acegas '12 Mergersynergies
Organic Gas tenders M&A E2017
2.3
3.2+0.6 +0.2 +0.1
02012 Acegas 2012 Gas Distrib Water E2017
11
Ebitda breakdown(m€)
+176m€
RAB evolution(b€)
Focus on enhancing returns
Allocating capex on safe activities with stable cash flows
Tender schedule
NETWORKS: Strengthening “roots” in reference territory
Focus on proper investments toenhance RAB and asset efficiency
Efficiencies
Confirm market position
Focus on leakages/efficiency.Enhance “smart” grid management.
Bid to confirm all concessions on reference territory leveraging upon consolidated and leading market shares. Looking for opportunistic options
Focused capex: 1.34b€
M&A
Integrate activities from mergers
+0.9b€
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184
311
+31 +10+68 +19
0
200
400
2012 Acegas '12 Mergersynergies
Organic M&A E2017
Ebitda breakdown(m€)
+127m€
1.6
3.0
0
1
2
3
4
2012 E2017
12
Value extraction from all drivers
Repositioning to support expansion in the “nation wide” special waste market
Urban waste treatments focus on value 30% special waste market share in ref. areas
9%
18%
30%23%
19%
landfill select/recycWTE 3rd partiesCompost Other
1,72,1
0
1
2
3
2012 E2017
S. W. mkt in reference areas(mton)
S. W. Hera volume treatm.(mton)
M&A
EfficienciesAsset mix toward recycle/recover
Reduce waste mgmt cost.Improve treatment cost efficiency.Squeeze more value from waste
Develop market share
Integrate activities from mergersDevelop special waste mkt, and confirm current concessions on waste collection
Asset fine tuning and restructuring focusing on plant that enhance value of waste (selection, bio-digester/bio mass).
WASTE: Adapting and reacting in an evolving scenario
1
4
2012 demand:10.5
Reference territories
Urban Waste Volumes(mton)
Treatment mix
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151135
+11 +6 (41)+7
0
200
400
2012 AcegasAPS
mergersynergies
Organic M&A E2017
ENERGY: Progress on down stream development
13Enhance marketing intelligence to tackle with changing scenario
“Soft landing” on market change Ebitda breakdown(m€)
Gas upstream: TAP project Key targets
1.3 1.1
2.2 2.3
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
2012 E2017Direct supplies National
1.4 1.7
8.88.9
-113579
11
2012 E2017Own production Market
3.5 3.410.2 10.6
Gas supply
1.1 1.3
Cross selling and expand marketscontrol churn rate.Rebalancing customer mix.Selective customer policy.
Tackle with margin squeezeMidstream position
M&A
Manage pricing.Reduce cost to serve.
Integrate activities from mergers with multi-utilities targeted.
Flexible procurement strategy keeping short in upstream.Control working capital.
Expand market
0.51.0
Sources(bcm)
Customers(m)
Electricity supply
2012 2012 E2017E2017
(16m€)
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Capex plan: 1.9b€ to sustain low risk growth and efficiency gains
14
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0.09
~0.11
2012* E2017
Financial performance
EPS cagr.(€)
Returns (%, b€)
E2017 Cash flows (m€)
Financial ratios
+5% Cagr
2012 E2017
ROI
+554
+171
(383)
Operatingcash flows
Capex &Investments*
Freecash flows 2012 E2017
FFO/Debt*3.3x
2.9x
2012 E2017
Debt/Ebitda
*Normalised by one off tax benefits related to prior years
2012 E2017
EBIT (m€) 335 500
NIC* (b€) 4.1 5.3
*Net Invested Capital
*FFO calculated as the sum of reported net profit + D&A + provision (non adjusted)
8.2%
>9%
17,5%
20%
* Related to current Group perimeter
15
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Geographical expansion in fragmented new reference territories
Aimag - Mirandola
Amga - Udine
Gas sold (mcm) 315
Gas POD ('000) 156
Water sold (mcm) 10
Financials 2012 (m€)
Revenues 367
Ebitda 29
Ebit 12
Net Profit 4
Net Debt (84)
Gas sold (mcm) 211
Gas distributed (mcm) 275
Water sold (mcm) 15
Financials 2012 (m€)
Revenues 220
Ebitda 44
Ebit 21
Net Profit 10
Net Debt (86)
Moving fast following M&A strategic principles
Swap Partecipation
Est Reti Elettriche Isontina Reti GasFinancials 2012 (m€)
Ebitda 1
Net Debt (4.5)
POD (unit) 22K
Financials 2012 (m€)
Ebitda 5
Net Debt (20)
POD (unit) 59K
Agreement(Acegas Aps)
TriestePadua
16
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Swap with ENI on Gorizia shareholdings
From 01/01/14 to 31/03/14 Acegas Aps has a call option to step up to 100% in Isontina Reti Gas in the event that Italgas doesn’t exercise it’s call option to purchase ENI stake.
17
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Shares to issue
Up to 80 million shares (share capital move from1,342.8 to about 1,422.8 million shares).
The increase is 5.6% (or 1/17) on share capital (postincrease).
Price issue
Price set the day before the issue. Price range:
A) 1.25€ if average market price of 30 days (“Pavg30”)before the share issue is 1.55€>Pavg30>1.25€.
B) Pavg30 – 0.05€ if Pavg30< 1.25€
Option rights
Around 1 right for every 17 old shares. FSI commit to buyall un-opted rights.
Schedule of share capital increase
Share holdings
FSI first step into Hera shareholding
Current shareholdings Post capital increase
new shares
5.6%
10%11%
46%
38%
1,423mshares
48%
41%1,343 mshares
18
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Closing remarks
19
Confirming Strategy
Strengthening Assets
Creating value
Dividend policy confirmed
Sector Consolidation
StrengtheningShareholding structure
• Pursuing multi-utility strategy aiming at a positive growththrough all drivers available
• Capex plan ’13-’17 focused on strengthening regulated assetbase and maintaining short upstream
• Targeting +5% EPS growth and increasing financial soundness;value creation in a multi-stakeholder approach
• Targeting a floor of 9€c DPS and full coverage of dividendpayments with cash generation within 2017
• Expanding in reference territory through deals both in Friuliregion (Amga Udine and participation swap with ENI) andEmilia Romagna region
• FSI shareholder by the end of the year
Adapting and reacting to keep on course
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ANNEX: Business plan 2013-2017Further Group details
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2012 E2015 E2017
Brent (Dollar/Barrel) 112 105 105
Exchange ratio €/$ 1.29 1.33 1.32
PUN (€/MWh) 75.5 66.8 69.0
Inflation (%) 2% 2% 2%
Italian GDP trend (%) (2.4%) +1.0% +1.0%
Green certificate (€/MWh) 81 87 85
CEC (Cip6 avoid cost) (€/MWh) 87.6 80.3 81.0
White certificates (€/TEP) 87 81 82
CO2 certificates (€/ton) 7.6 10.0 10.0
WATER services revenues (Cagr ’12-’17) +5.5%
GAS distribution revenues (Cagr ’12-’17) +5.3%
ELECTRICITY distribution revenues (Cagr ’12-’17) +9.4%
WASTE collection revenues (Cagr ’12-’17) +6.4%
Assumptions
20
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Change in Governance
Share capital develop.Hera Group Board of Directors
Hera municipalities Acegas Aps municipalities Other shareholders
Hera post Acegas Public offer
Hera post FSI
1.343m
shares
1.423m
shares
20Bod
members
21Bod
members
15Bod
members
2013 2014
21
New shares
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64
71175
22
500m€
Consolidated Group Ebit
Ebit 2012 Ebit E2017
334m€
By strategic area
By Business 335m€
22
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• Maintain financial liabilities homogeneous with investment time horizons
• Non speculative financing
• Optimize mix variable/fixed to stabilise related cash flows
Financial Strategy
Refinancing needs to 2017(m€)
Pursuing balanced interest nature
Average debt cost Hera Group financial strategy
Rates
23
E2013 E2017
Average rate 5.1% 5.6%
Variable rate 3.6% 4.6%
Fixed rate 6.2% 6.7%
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Sustainable development
Electricity production – renewable (GWhe)
Thermal energy production – renewable(GWht)
CO2 emission avoided(ton)
Low emission vehicles
24
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ANNEX: Business plan 2013-2017NETWORKS (further details by strategic area)
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Networks internal growth drivers (1)
Avg. revenue per m3 of water distributed(€/m3)
Total gas revenues(m€)
Total electricity revenues(m€)
+1.1% Cagr
Visible and safe tariff enhancementHera heating production sources (excl. leakages)(GWht)
Increase volume sold to new customer (new urbanization)Efficient sources for heat productionWaste contribution to increase heat gen.Increase of margins/environmental perf.
Benefitting from new asset base
Efficient thermal energy
production386510
+3.8% Cagr
38%
19%11%11%
21%
32%
19%
10%
16%
23%
E2017 Ebitda of D.H. expected to increase by +10m€ (from 13m€ of 2012)
25
+5.3% Cagr
+9.4% Cagr
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District Heating(POD/Employee)
Economies of scale in networks management
+5.9% Cagr
Networks internal growth drivers (2)
26
Electricity(POD/Employee)
+1.4% Cagr
Gas(POD/Employee)
+1.7% Cagr
Water(POD/Employee)
+1.7% Cagr
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Networks targets
Ebitda breakdown(m€)
112153
2743
158
26613
23
310
486
2012 E2017
Gas distrib. Electricity distrib. Water D.H.
27
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ANNEX: Business plan 2013-2017WASTE (further details by strategic area)
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Hera growth strategy and waste market expansion
+10.8% Cagr
+4.8% Cagr
Hera sales volumes(kton)
Market expansion
+8.8% Cagr
Expand geographical
scope
Increase“full service”
contracts
Focus on value added treatments
Leverage upon domestic plant shortageIdentified key target MKT Competitive commercial offers (full service)
Stable urban waste volumes due to slow down in consumptionsIncrease sorted collection to 63%
7.397
4.856 453
(172)
106481
1.104 568
2012 WTE Landfill Compost Che/phy.,disidr.
Selction/RDFOther
3rd plants E2017
Hera Treatment capacity(k ton)
Fully integrate value chain
Mix of treatments(kton)
+2,541 Kton
28
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Waste treatment capacity and energy generation enhancement
Green certificates(m€)
GC quantity (GWh)
309 359
GC price (€/ MWh)
81 85
2 83
35 118 11
4 10 4
Other
Landfill
Che/phy., disidr.Compost
Digesters
WTE
Inhertis.
Mod/therm
al2012
2012 Waste assets: 1.1b€ (20% of inv. capital)
Renewable Power generation(GWh)
29
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ANNEX: Business plan 2013-2017ENERGY (further details by strategic area)
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Keeping a balanced and effective energy upstream strategy
Ebitda breakdown(m€)
• Gas Sales and Trading activities expected to benefit from M&A contribution more than offsetting negative projections on current sales & trading margins (due to progressive alignment of commodity cost component – “CCI” – to gas spot prices included in retail sales prices).
• Electricity Sales and Trading activities affected by a projected reduction in volume sold to “salvaguardia” clients.
30
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ANNEX: Business Plan 2013-2017(by business)
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M € 2012 E2017 Cagr.
Ebitda 183,5 311,0 +11,1%
Waste business
Economics Capex ’13-’17: 480m€(m€)
Ebitda breakdown(m€) Highlights
2012 E2017
Tariffs (€/ton)
Volume treated
Urban (kton)Special (kton)Hera prod. (kton)
246 291
1,7711,5591,527
2,2413,0492,106
31
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Water business
Economics Capex ’13-’17: 610m€(m€)
Volume sold* Highlights
2012 E2017
Volumes (mm3) 253 319
2012 E2017
Leakage
Tariff (€/m3)
27.0% 25.1%
1.8 1.9
M € 2012 E2017 Cagr.
Ebitda 158,3 266,4 +11,0%
32
* Civil acquduct+ industrial acqueduct
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M € 2012 E2017 Cagr.
Ebitda 240,7 258,1 +1,4%
Gas business
Economics
Ebitda breakdown(m€)
Capex ’13-’17: 631m€(m€)
Highlights
2012 E2017
Networks (kKm)
Tariffs (€c/m3)
15.3 18.7
7.4 7.2
33
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M € 2012 E2017 Cagr.
Ebitda 62,3 96,0 +9,0%
Electricity business
Economics
Ebitda breakdown(m€)
Capex ’13-’17: 187m€(m€)
Highlights
2012 E2017
E. sold (TWh)
E. distr. (TWh)
E. contracts (K)
E. tariffs (€c/KWh)
9.5 9.9
2.2 3.2
541 946
2.62.4
34
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Portfolio mix
Business Portfolio breakdown
35
Ebitda E2017
951m€
Liberalized 42%
Regulated 58%
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding future events (which impact the HeraGroup’s future results) that are based on current expectations, estimates and opinions of management.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and events that are unpredictableand depend on circumstances that might change in future.
As a result, any expectation on Group results and estimates set out in this presentation may differsignificantly depending on changes in the unpredictable circumstances on which they are based.
Therefore, any forward -looking statement made by or on behalf of the Hera Group refer on the datethey are made.
The Hera Group shall not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in theGroup’s expectations or in the events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements arebased.
Nevertheless, the Hera Group has a “profit warning policy” , in accordance with Italian laws, that shallnotify the market (under “price-sensitive” communication rules) regarding any “sensible change” thatmight occur in Group expectations on future results.
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