analytical problem solving

7/29/2019 Analytical Problem Solving

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ANALYTICAL PROBLEM-SOLVING

Arnaud Chevallier/ July 2010 (Revised)

Copyright, Arnaud Chevallier. All rights reserved.

See more at powerful-problem-solving.com

Friday, July 9, 2010
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We all solve problems daily

How should we complement our product porfolio?

Why havent we met our sales target?

How can we reduce illegal immigration?

...

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But most of us havent received formal trainingon how to do it

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From Cartoonbank.com

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This presentation shows howbasing your resolution on key

questions can help

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Well see how to:

Define optimally your problem

Solve it with an issue tree



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Identify the solution

Build theissue tree

Improve itDefine the key

questionUnderstandthe context

Define the problem


This presentation shows how to define a problem and how to plan

its solution

We all solveproblems

But we dont doit optimally

Basing your problem-solving on key

questions can help

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Build theissue tree

Improve itDefine the key

questionUnderstandthe context

Define the problem


questions can help

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Define the keyquestion

Understandthe context

Define the problem


questions can help

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First, you have to identify the right key question (wellconsider only how and why questions)

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This can be more difficult than it sounds

Problem: the cars of the employees of a company dont

fit into the parking lotWhats the key question?

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F i i i id l
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For instance, it is easy to consider only oneaspect of the problem

How can we

increase thecapacity of the

lot?

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After M. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit


F i t it i t id l
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How can we


lot?

Expending itsdimensions

Putting more

cars in thecurrent space

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F i t it i t id l
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How can we


lot?


Putting more


Building a newfloor

Using a new parcel

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F i t it i t id l
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How can we


lot?


Putting more


Building a newfloor

Using a new parcel

Reducing the area notdedicated to parking

Reducing the size ofeach space

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For instance it is easy to consider only one
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For instance, it is easy to consider only oneaspect of the problem (contd)

How can wereduce the

number of cars?

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number of cars?

Reducing the number ofemployees

Increasing the numberof employees per car

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number of cars?



Moving part of thecompany elsewhere

Eliminating jobs

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number of cars?




Eliminating jobs

Promoting car

pooling

Making that moreemployees use other

means of transportation

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So ensure you are solving the right problem (not a part
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So ensure you are solving the right problem (not a part,not a symptom)

How can wesolve the

saturation of thelot?

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How can weincrease the

capacity of thelot?


Putting morecars in the

current space

Building a newfloor

Using a new parcel

Reducing the area notdedicated to parking

Reducing the size ofeach space

How can wereduce thenumber of

cars?

Reducing thenumber ofemployees

Increasingthe number of

employeesper car


Eliminatin obs

Promoting car

pooling

Making that moreemployees use other

means oftransportation


The key question encompasses all the other
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The key question encompasses all the otherrelevant ones

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

Key question

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The key question must have the right scope:
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The key question must have the right scope:neither too narrow nor too wide

Make the key question...

Neither too vague

Nor too narrow / oriented in the wrong direction /based on a hypothesis / compounded

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To fully describe your problem you must complement


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To fully describe your problem you must complementyour key question with an introductory flow...

Situation:The non controversial, relevant information about the problem.ONLY the relevant information

Complication:The unique need for change (potentially illustrated by some of itssymptoms/consequences)

CONTE

XT

Key question:THE question you want to answer

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Adapted from Barbara Minto, The Minto Pyramid Principle


d d fi iti f th i t


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... and a definition of the environment

Criteria for a high-quality tree:Optional actions that will ensure that your tree is of superior quality

Implementation parameters:Deadlines, budget, numericalobjectives, etc.

Out of scope:Actions that you could take butdecide upfront not to

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Use only action verbs

Scope


At the end, you might find it convenient to summarize
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At the end, you might find it convenient to summarizeyour problem in a problem identity card

Situation:The key issue: the non controversial, relevant information about theproblem. ONLY the relevant information

Complication:The unique need for change (potentially illustrated by some of itssymptoms/consequences)

CONTEXT

Criteria fora high-quality tree:Optional action that will ensure that your tree is of superior qualityS

C

OPE

Project:

Problem Identity Card

Key question: THE question you want to answer

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Implementation parameters:Deadlines, budget, numericalobjectives, etc.

Out of scope:Actions that you could takebut decide upfront not to

After Andersen Consulting, Issue-BasedProblem Solving

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Build theissue tree

Improve itDefine the keyquestion

Understandthe context

Define the problem


questions can help



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Build theissue tree

Improve it


questions can help


Issue trees have four basic rules


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Issue trees have four basic rules

Issue trees

Go from the key

question to the analysis

Are MECE

Are perspicacious

Keep asking why or how

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A tree goes from the key question to the data


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How can weincrease ourprofitability

g y qsources

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g y qsources

Key question Sub-issue

How can we ourcosts?

How can we our

revenues?

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sources



How can we our

revenues?

Sub-sub-issue

volume?

prices?

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sources



How can we our

revenues?

Sub-sub-issue

volume?

prices?

Raw materialscosts?

Employeecosts?

Other costs?

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sources



How can we our

revenues?

Sub-sub-issue

volume?

prices?

Raw materialscosts?

Employeecosts?

Other costs?

Sub-...-issue

Of allproducts?

Of only specificproducts?

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sources



How can we our

revenues?

Sub-sub-issue

volume?

prices?

Raw materialscosts?

Employeecosts?

Other costs?

Sub-...-issue

Of allproducts?


publicity?

offers?

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sources



How can we our

revenues?

Sub-sub-issue

volume?

prices?

Raw materialscosts?

Employeecosts?

Other costs?

Sub-...-issue

Of allproducts?


publicity?

offers?

the quantityof rawmaterials?

Get cheaperrawmaterials?

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sources



How can we our

revenues?

Sub-...-issue

For all products

Only for specificproducts

Switching suppliers

Negotiating better

Sub-sub-issue

volume?

prices?

Raw materialscosts?

Employeecosts?

Other costs?

Sub-...-issue

Of allproducts?


publicity?

offers?



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sources



How can we our

revenues?

Sub-...-issue

For all products

Only for specificproducts

Switching suppliers

Negotiating better

Sub-sub-issue

volume?

prices?

Raw materialscosts?

Employeecosts?

Other costs?

Sub-...-issue

Of allproducts?


publicity?

offers?



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Hypothesis

H1: Increasing theprice of our entirefamily product willgenerate morerevenue than the onelost because of theassociated salesvolume decrease

Analysis

A1: Conductsimulation,benchmark

D1: Clientinterviews

Data needed /Source

H2: ... A2: ... D2: ...

H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...

H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...

The analysis tests ifthe hypothesismakes sense; it

doesnt explain howto implement it!


Each column describes in further detailor solves


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the previous one

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Why arent theremore instructors

takingimprovement

courses online?


Becausethey tried itbut dont

want to takeanother

Becausethey dont

want to take

a first one

Sub-...-issueSub-sub-

issue

Because theydont takecourses

Because they

didnt like it

Because theythink they dontneed it

Sub-...-issue

Because theyprefer to useother deliverymethods

Because theydont want

Because theycant

Because theythink they dontneed it

Because they arelazy

...


Items in the tree are ideas: questions, action verbs,
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hypotheses. They arent just titles

21



h th Th t j t titl


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21

How can weincrease

profitability? How can wereduce costs?

How can weincrease revenue?



h th Th t j t titl


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21

How can weincrease



How can weincrease

profitability?

Increasing revenues

Reducing costs



h th Th t j t titl


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21

How can weincrease



How can we costs?

Raw materials?

Employees?

Costos?

How can weincrease

profitability?

Increasing revenues

Reducing costs



h potheses The arent j st titles


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Doesnt work becauseyou have to inferewhat to do with therevenue and costs

How can weincrease

profitability?

Revenue

Costs

How can weincrease



How can we costs?

Raw materials?

Employees?

Costos?

How can weincrease

profitability?

Increasing revenues

Reducing costs


Each move to the right must bring some value
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Why arent theremore instructors

takingimprovement

courses online?

Because theytried it but

dont want totake another

Because theydont want totake a first

one

Because theydont take courses

Because theydidnt like it

Because they thinkthey dont need it

Because theyprefer to use otherdelivery methods

Because they

dont want

Because theycant

Because they thinkthey dont need it

Because they arelazy


Issue trees always diverge: each column has more

elements than the previous one


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elements than the previous one...

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How can we

maintain thepersonnel

database up todate?

Eliminating the

info of thepersonnelleaving thecompany

Adding the infoof the newpersonnel

Capturing thechanges in the

personnelmoving within

the company





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23

How can we


database up todate?

Eliminating the





the company

Own

personnel

Outsourcedpersonnel





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23

How can we

maintain thepersonneldatabase up to

date?

Eliminating the





the company

Own

personnel

Outsourcedpersonnel

Own personnel

Outsourced personnel

1

1

Own personnel

Outsourced personnel

How can we


database up todate?

Eliminating the





the company


... similarly, each item has, at least, two sub-items
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An issue with a single sub-issue has a problem:

Either there are other possibilities or

The group {issue / sub-issue} is redundant

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... similarly, each item has, at least, two sub-items


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An issue with a single sub-issue has a problem:

Either there are other possibilities or

The group {issue / sub-issue} is redundant

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How can we getmore students?

Increasing the inscriptionof new students


Issue trees rely on mutually exclusive andcollectively exhaustive (MECE) groupings


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A B

C

co ect e y e aust e ( C ) g oup gs

A B

Mutually exclusive

sets

Collectively exhaustive

sets MECE sets

D

A B

CD

25

MECE?




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A B

C

y ( ) g p g

A B

Mutually exclusive

sets


sets MECE sets

D

A B

CD

25

MECE?

Because the material of theexam wasnt covered in class

Because they dont havethe intellectual abilities

Why are the gradesof my students

mediocre?

Because they dont studyenough

Because I grade verysteeply

Because my evaluationtool is inappropriate


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A B

C

y ( ) g p g

A B

Mutually exclusive

sets


sets MECE sets

D

A B

CD

25

MECE?

Because the material of theexam wasnt covered in class

Because they dont havethe intellectual abilities

Why are the gradesof my students

mediocre?

Because they dont studyenough

Because I grade verysteeply

Because my evaluationtool is inappropriate


Issue trees are perspicacious
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- Where am I? From Cartoonbank.com




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- In a car, Mam

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-At the intersection of Westheimerand Fourth.

- In a car, Mam

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Each tree progresses to the right consistently askingwhy or how (only one type for any given tree)


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Break the problem in itspotential causes

Cause

Cause

Cause

Problem

Diagnostic - Why?

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Cause

Cause

Cause

Problem

Diagnostic - Why?

Identify alternativesolutions for the problem

Action

ActionProblem

Solution - How?

Action

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Cause

Cause

Cause

Problem

Diagnostic - Why?

Identify alternativesolutions for the problem

Action

ActionProblem

Solution - How?

Action

Each tree follow the same pattern (either it is a how or awhy but not both

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How trees do notdescribe a sequential process; theyshow alternative solutions to the problem


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Cartoons are from Cartoonbank.com




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How can I gofrom NYC to

London?

2. Buying aticket

1. Electing ameans of

transportation

3. Going to

the port/airport

4. Boarding




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London?

2. Buying aticket

1. Electing ameans of

transportation

3. Going to

the port/airport

4. Boarding


London?

Travelingby sea

Flying

Using a helicopter

Using a plane

Using a balloon

Using a rocket

Traveling onthe surface

Using asubmarine

With a raft

Swimming


How trees lead to actions that can solve the key

question, no to some analysis


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How can weimprove the

elaboration ofinvoices?

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How trees lead to actions that can solve the key

question, no to some analysis


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How do we make the clientsspecifications clear?

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How trees lead to actions that can solve the keyquestion, no to some analysis


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How do we know ifouremployees understand the

specifications?


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How trees lead to actions that can solve the keyquestion, no to some analysis


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How do we know ifouremployees understand the

specifications?


How do we ensure that ouremployees understand the

specifications

29


A few tips can help improve your trees


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How do you

improve yourtrees?

Diverge

Accept alternatives

Enlist others

Make sense

Change as you go

Adapt your level of confidence

Make them parallel

30


Effective trees are parallel
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They are parallel in action

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31

Improving theshopping experience

Improving the post-sale experience

How can weimprove our

clientsexperience?


Following up afterthe sales


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They are parallel in construction

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clientsexperience?





Th ll l i ti
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They are parallel in construction

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clientsexperience?



Reducing our deliverytime

Increasing ourfriendliness

Solving the problemthe first time out

How can weimprove the post-sale experience?

Reducing ourdelivery time

Increasing ourfriendliness

How can we solve theproblem the first timeour?


Columns have elements of similar weight. You cancheck for this by ensuring that no column has an

outlier
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How do weincrease

revenues?



outlier


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How do weincrease

revenues?

Adding new services

Increasing prices

Increasing volumes



outlier


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How do weincrease

revenues?

Adding new services

Increasing revenueswith our current

services

Increasing prices

Increasing volumesHow do we

increaserevenues?

Adding new services

Increasing prices

Increasing volumes


You will need to be creative to have exhaustive trees, whichwill require to get out of your comfort zone

Value of the


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Creative

AbsurdObvious

Difficulty of implementation

33

idea

Source: Accenture, Tools and Frameworks Pocket Guide


To be creative, be prepared to ignore theconsequences of your ideas, at least at the beginning


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Nice, but well need an en warranty, recall bulletins, recy

hour custo

i lie

onmental-impact study, ang facilities, and twenty-four-r support.

34



You can solve each problem with more than just onetree


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Ensure that for each division in your tree, you can find a name for the group ofsub-issues you are creating



Reducingvariable costs


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How do wereduce our

costs?

Reducing

fixed costs

Direct

Indirect

Classifying by

cost type



Reducingvariable costs

Reducingproduction costs
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How do wereduce our

costs?

Reducing

fixed costs

Direct

Indirect

Classifying by

cost type

Reducing marketingcosts

Reducingadministrative costs

Reducing other costs

Classifying by the

origin of the cost


As your analysis moves forward, be prepared to modifyyour tree


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Apply judgement between satisficing (accepting the firstacceptable solution) and maximizing (keep on searching forthe optimal solution)

Modify your tree as your analysis reveals if your hypothesesare true or false

36

See also Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice


As your build your analytical structure, reviewit periodically to ensure it makes sense


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Farewell my dear fellows, I am

off to the Seven Years War!


Problems have different orders of complexity

P bl t


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Role of factsRole of expertise

Complexity

38

DETERMINISTIC,

DIRECT

A direct answer

exist

E.g. What is the

height of the Eiffel

Tower?

DETERMINISTIC,

COMPUTED

You can compute

the answer

E.g. How do you

convert liters to

gallons

RANDOM, FINITE

You can identify all

the possible answer

but cannot pick the

correct one

E.g. Who will be the

largest car

manufacturer in ten

years?

RANDOM,

CONTINUOUS

The answer is part

of a continuum, you

can only determineits range

E.g. How profitable

will we be next

quarter?

Adapted from Morgan Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit

Problem types


You need to adapt your confidence in yoursolutions accordingly

Problem types


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Problem types

Complexity

Role of facts andtrust in findings

Role of expertiseand probability of

error

39

DETERMINISTIC,

DIRECT

A direct answer

exist

E.g. What is the

height of the Eiffel

Tower?

DETERMINISTIC,

COMPUTED

You can compute

the answer

E.g. How do you

convert liters to

gallons

RANDOM, FINITE

You can identify all

the possible answer

but cannot pick the

correct one

E.g. Who will be the

largest car

manufacturer in ten

years?

RANDOM,

CONTINUOUS

The answer is part

of a continuum, you

can only determineits range

E.g. How profitable

will we be next

quarter?

Adapted from Morgan Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit


Closing, basing your problem solving on key questions canimprove it drastically

Basing your problem-
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solving on key questions

can help

Define the problem Identify the solution

We all solveproblems

But we dont doit optimally

Understand theenvironment

Build the issuetree

Improve it

Dont makeit too

narrow nortoo vague

DefineS, C,

KQ

Identifythe

qualitycriteria

Define thescope

Define the keyquestion

Go fromkey

question toanalysis

BeMECE

Ask whyor how

Beperspicaci

ous

DivergeEnlistothers

Change asyou go

Makesense

Adapt yourconfidence

Acceptalternatives

Be parallel

40


ReferencesAndersen Consulting, Issue-Based Problem Solving, The Consulting Resource BookVersion 3, September 1999


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Linda Long, The Power of Logic in Problem Solving & Communication, Strategic

Communication Consulting, 2004Morgan D. Jones, The Thinkers Toolkit, Random House: New York, 1998

James M. Higgins, 101 Creative Problem Solving Techniques, New Management

Publishing Company: Winter Park, 1994

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds, Random House, 2004

Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice, HarperCollins, 2004

Strategic Services, Tools and Frameworks Pocket Guide, Internal Publication,Accenture

Issue-Based Problem Solving, Internal Publication, Accenture

Barbara Minto, The Minto Pyramid Principle, Minto International: London, 1996

Edward de Bono, Serious Creativity: Using the Power of Lateral Thinking to Create NewIdeas

Michael Michalko, Thinkertoys: A Handbook of Business Creativity for the 90s

41



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