Analyzing Current and Future Catastrophic Risks from Emerging-Threat Technologies

Kickoff Template Submission Date: 5 Jan 2014

Anthony M. Barrett: PI and Research Transition Lead

Jun Zhuang: Co-PI assisting with methodsSeth Baum: Investigator supporting elicitations

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Project Objectives:

• Research Goals– Develop methodology to use available

information and expert judgment to:• Identify ways in which catastrophes could occur

with new technological developments• Estimate risks with initial information and

update assessments with new information

• Research Transition Goals– Facilitate the following:

• Intelligence monitoring for signal events • Update assessments of risk profiles

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DHS Interest and Motivation:

• DHS interested in emerging-risk assessment• Currently main DHS partner is National

Biosurveillance Integration Center (NBIC) at DHS Office of Health Affairs– Help NBIC monitor emerging bio-risks

• Other potential methodology users include: – DHS Bio & Chem Division

• Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA)

– S&T Acquisition Support and Operations Analysis (for S&T Futures work)

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Potential non-DHS Stakeholders:

• Members of the Intelligence Community–Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)

• Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)

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Interfaces to Related Research

• Informal interfaces with PIs on related work at CREATE, START

• Seeking to recruit experts for elicitation that are working on related topics– Candidates we seek to recruit include:

• Gary Ackerman (START)– Emerging-tech use in terrorism

• Todd Kuiken (Wilson Center)– Synthetic biology risks

• Ed You (FBI)– Engagement with DIYbio, synthetic biology communities

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Research Technical Plan:

• Construct models using available information: – Catastrophe fault-tree logic models, working backward from

catastrophe scenarios– Technology development models, working forwards from the

current state of the world

• For catastrophe-enabling development events:– Estimate the dates of developments (priors)– Identify likely indicators of developments – Updated estimates given indicators (posteriors)

• Represent tradeoffs of options in terms of effects on risk model parameters and option costs

• Integrate risk models and option-tradeoff models to support decision analysis of options

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Research Transition Plan:

• Aiming scenarios, deliverables to be useful to DHS• Report on the methodology developed in this project

and the findings from the application of this methodology to the case study

– Including discussion of methodology limitations, potential extensions, and steps for implementation by risk practitioners

• Software that analysts can use to apply the methodology to other cases

– Using commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS) software based on influence diagrams, with stochastic simulation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo algorithms

– Could include Analytica by Lumina Decision Systems or Netica by Norsys Software

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Milestones and Schedule/Timeline:

1. Conduct initial literature reviews, select one or more areas for methodology application, conduct initial discussions with subject matter experts, build first-iteration models using representative data available at that point, and identify potential risk reduction measures -- November 2014

2. Conduct initial risk analyses, perform initial characterization of risk reduction measure effects and tradeoffs, conduct additional discussions with subject matter experts -- January 2015

3. Conduct expert elicitations and obtain other data to improve models and analyses -- March 2015

4. Finalize models and analyses; write final report -- June 2015