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2013 Morningstar® Andex® Chart
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(15%)
(20%)
40%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
45%
(10%)
(5%)
(25%)
(40%)
(35%)
(30%)
75%
80%
90%
85%0%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%5%
(15%)
(20%)
40%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
45%
(10%)
(5%)
(25%)
(40%)
(35%)
(30%)
75%
80%
90%
85%
0% 35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Assum
es reinvestment of all incom
e and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investm
ent. An investment cannot be m
ade directly in an index. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the full faith
and credit of the Canadian government as to the tim
ely payment of principal and interest, w
hile stocks are not guaranteed and have been more volatile than the
other asset classes. Rolling period returns are a series of overlapping, contiguous periods of returns (12 months, 36 m
onths, etc.) The first 12-month rolling period
is January 1950–December 1950, the second is February 1950–January 1951, and so on. The balanced portfolio w
as created for illustrative purposes only. It is neither a recom
mendation, nor an actual portfolio. All incom
e was reinvested and the portfolio w
as rebalanced every 12 months. Source: U.S. Large
Stocks—Standard and Poor’s 90
® index from 1926 through February 1957 and the S&
P 500 index thereafter, which is an unm
anaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the U.S. stock m
arket in general; S&P/TSX Com
posite—Canadian Financial M
arkets Research Center for 1950–1955 and Standard and Poor’s/TSX Com
posite Index total return series thereafter, which replaced the TSE300 Total Return Index on M
ay 1, 2002; DEX Long Bond Index—
PC-Bond, a business unit of TSX, Inc.; Cash—90 Day Canada Treasury Bills, Bank of Canada. ©
2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The reproduction
of part or all of this chart without prior w
ritten consent from M
orningstar ® is prohibited.
$3877.0%Dec 74
Mar 00
19.4%$3,470
$3346.2%M
ay 77
Oct 9714.1%$1,408
$1542.2%Dec 69
Sep 0114.6%$1,534
$3386.3%Dec 74
Feb 9815.1%$1,656
$60–5.1% Feb 09
Oct 0022.7%$771
$1322.8%Aug 10
Aug 8719.5%$594
$1252.3%Jun 10
Aug 8718.6%$552
$1101.0%Dec 59
Sep 9118.3%$538
$68–7.5% Feb 09
Jul 8731.1%$388
$91–1.9% M
ar 03
Jul 8727.8%$340
$1020.4%Feb 09
Jul 8727.8%$340
$95–1.0% Sep 59
Sep 8626.6%$325
$60–15.7% M
ar 03
Apr 9834.4%$243
$70–11.1% Aug 03
Nov 80
39.3%$270
$82–6.5% M
ar 03
Jul 8730.4%$222
$79–7.7% Sep 81
Jun 8528.9%$214
$84–15.9% Sep 81
Jun 8355.6%$156
$61–39.2% Jun 82
Jun 8386.9%$187
$60–40.2% Sep 74
Jul 8356.8%$157
$76–24.2% Sep 74
Jun 8350.8%$151
73.6%78.2%
82.7%80.5%
1-year periods (751)89.1%
83.9%94.3%
90.3%
3-year periods (727)98.4%
84.9%100%
97.5%
5-year periods (703)100%
92.6%100%
100%
10-year periods (643)100%
100%100%
100%
20-year periods (523)Positive Returns
Understanding the G
raph
Balanced Portfolio
30% Bonds
30% U.S. Large Stocks
30% Canadian Stocks
10% Cash
Graph Legend
S&P/TSX Com
posite Total Return Index
DEX Long Bond IndexBalanced PortfolioU.S. Large Stock Total Return Index in CAD
Most Recent Return
Median Return
Best 5%
Other 90%
Worst 5%
Rolling Period Risk and Return, January 1950–June 2013
U.S.A. Recessions
15%10%
5%0%
15%10%5%0%
22.75%
Inflation (Cost of Living)
Prime RateGovernment of Canada Long Term Bond Yield
6.7% 7.2%8.7%7.1% 12.7% 11.6%2.4% unemployment 3.4% 6.2% 5.3% 6.7%
2%0%
(2%)
2%0%(2%)
Gross Domestic Product
$0.90$0.80
$1.00$0.90$0.80
$1.00Canadian Dollar in USD
$1.0852 Nov 6
up 75% sinceJan 18 ‘02 low
dollar peaks at $1.06
$0.6202 Jan 18
CLARKST. LAURENTTRUMAN EISENHOWER
DIEFENBAKERKENNEDY
PEARSONJOHNSON NIXON FORD
TRUDEAUCARTER
TRUDEAUREAGAN
MULRONEY CHRETIENCLINTON BUSH
MARTINBUSH
HARPERKCJT
OBAMA
Compound Annual Returns by Decade18.2% 12.7% 1.0% 2.0% 2.4% 9.1% 10.0% 3.4% 4.5% 2.6% 6.8% 10.4% 7.6% 7.3% 7.6% 17.5% 12.2% 13.7% 11.9% 6.2% 20.8% 10.6% 11.6% 6.4% 2.1% –4.0% 5.6% 7.8% 3.1% 2.1%
100%0%(100%)
100%0%
(100%)
3%Expansion (%)
Contraction (%)
Recovery (months)
$100,000
$10,000
$1,000
$100
$260,59713.4%
$66,95311.0%
$36,4179.9%
$10,0677.7%
$6,0656.8%
$3,0115.6%
$9963.7%
$31,9769.7%
Growth of $100with no acquisition costs or taxesand all income reinvested
30%30%
30%10%
Canadian StocksU.S. Large Stocks
BondsCash
Balanced Portfolio
2013 Morningstar® Andex® Chart
U.S. Small Stock Total Return Index in CADU.S. Large Stock Total Return Index in CADS&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index
Balanced Portfolio (60% Equity, 40% Fixed Income)
DEX Long Bond Index5 Year Guaranteed Investment Certificates90 Day Canada Treasury BillsConsumer Price Index (Cost of Living)
World Markets ex-U.S. Total Return Index in CAD
Percentage Returns (June 30, 2013)1 Yr
4.811.3
–10.3
4.1
18.81.70.91.5
–8.9
3 Yr
13.811.36.7
8.0
12.11.90.71.8
2.1
5 Yr
–1.0–0.7–0.7
2.0
9.52.31.31.7
–6.0
10 Yr
3.41.27.6
5.5
9.02.72.22.0
1.9
20 Yr
10.67.58.7
8.0
9.74.23.51.9
5.1
30 Yr
11.110.710.3
10.7
12.26.45.82.7
9.0
SinceJan 1,1950
13.411.09.9
9.7
7.76.85.63.7
—
RiskSince1950
24.717.517.1
10.2
9.83.54.0—
—
SinceJan 1,1970
12.25.54.9
0.6
1.03.31.9
#
8.0
RiskSince1970
24.07.42.3
1.2
2.62.80.5—
7.8*since 1970
Worst5 Yrs
–14.1–7.5–1.9
0.4
–1.02.30.9—
–7.0*
Avro Arrow terminated
Canada’s first TV broadcastCanada/U.S. auto pact signed
OAS starts for those over 70 OAS reduced from 70 to 65capital gains tax
Chrysler bailout
Parti Québécois wins provincial election
Canada/U.S. free trade approved
Berlin Wall torn down
capital gains exemption introduced
capital gains exemption frozen at $100,000
O&Y bankruptcy
Bre-X
PCs fall from 169 to 2 seats
Russian debt default
Confed Life fails
GST starts
2nd Quebec referendum 50.4% vote NO
Enron
WorldCom
CPP/QPP approved
Northland Bank & CanadianCommercial Bank go bankrupt
capital gains exemption eliminated
CBC’s first colour TV broadcast
Mexican peso crisisAsian currency crisis
9/11 attacks
Nortel low $0.67
Income Trust tax
30% foreign content rule eliminated
Nortel high $124.50–34.2% of TSE 300
GM and Chrysler files for bankruptcy
Lehman Bros bankruptcy
U.S. debt downgraded by S&P
largest TSE 300 company BCE Inc. 6.6%
1st Quebec referendum 60% vote NO
Korean War
Ontario’s top marginaltax rate 82.4% to 59.5% 46.4% 46.4%50.3%
Wall Street Reform Act
Japan tsunami
iPhoneWinter Olympics
population (over 65) 14.8%population (over 65) 7.8%
population 34,670,352population 13,712,000
1st class stamp 63¢ +GST1st class stamp 4¢
life expectancy M: 78.8, F: 83.3life expectancy M: 66.5, F: 71.0
avg family income $91,000avg family income $38,059avg family income $12,716
min wage $10.25min wage $6.85min wage $2.90min wage $1.00/hr
birth of Parti Québécois
5 year mortgage 21.5%
5 year GIC 17.5%
gov’t of Canada 20 yr bond 17.75%
National Energy Program
Maple Leaf gold coin
U.S. subprime crisis
Black Monday
RIM rebranded as Black Berry
TFSA started with a limit of $5,000 $5,500
RRSP started with a limit of $2,500 $7,500 $11,500 $13,500$14,500$13,500$12,500 $14,500 $16,500$15,500 $18,000$5,500 $19,000 $20,000$4,000 $21,000 $22,000 $22,450 $22,970
195 104 284509297
500850 1,011725713
gold's fixed price of $35 U.S. per oz abandoned 253482
1,895
Arab oil embargo
BP oil spill
77.72113.39
30.28
145.31
50.51
77.0537.2210.8240.65
10.40
31.7038.3414.23
4.11 12.60
oil $2.57 U.S. per barrel
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
10 11 12 13
10 11 12 13
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $100 invested at the beginning of 1950. Assumes reinvestment of all income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the Canadian government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while stocks are not guaranteed and have been more volatile than the other asset classes. Furthermore, small stocks are more volatile than large stocks and are subject to significant price fluctuations, business risks, and are thinly traded. International investments involve special risks such as fluctuations in currency, foreign taxation, economic and political risks, liquidity risks, and differences in accounting and financial standards. Canadian recessions are defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP, while U.S. recession data is from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Gold prices are from London Bullion Market Association and represent the London P.M. daily closing prices per troy ounce. Oil prices are for West Texas Intermediate Crude per barrel from Morningstar. Gold and oil prices quoted in U.S. dollars. The balanced portfolio was created for illustrative purposes only. It is neither a recommendation, nor an actual portfolio. All income was reinvested and the portfolio was rebalanced every 12 months. Returns are compound annual returns, and risk is calculated as the standard deviation of calendar-year returns. The worst 5-year calculations are out of 703 (463 for World Markets ex U.S. stocks) rolling 60-month periods. Source: U.S. Small Stocks—Ibbotson® Small Company Stock index; World Markets ex U.S.—Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World ex U.S. index; U.S. Large Stocks—Standard and Poor’s 90 index from 1926 through February 1957 and the S&P 500 index thereafter, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general; S&P/TSX Composite—Canadian Financial Markets Research Center for 1950–1955 and Standard and Poor’s/TSX Composite index total return series thereafter, which replaced the TSE300 Total Return index on May 1, 2002; DEX Long Bond Index—PC-Bond, a business unit of TSX, Inc.; 5 Year Guaranteed Investment Certificates—Bank of Canada; 90 Day Canada Treasury Bills—Bank of Canada; Consumer Price Index—Statistics Canada; Gross Domestic Product—Bank of Canada for 1950–1992 and Statistics Canada thereafter. The second-quarter 2013 GDP value is an average analysts’ estimate; Canadian Dollar in U.S. Dollars—Bank of Canada; Prime Rate—Bank of Canada; Government of Canada Long Term Bond Yield—Bank of Canada. ©2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The reproduction of part or all of this chart without prior written consent from Morningstar® is prohibited.
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