anthropogenic forest change in the 21 st century a warning to policy makers or a foretaste of things...
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Anthropogenic Forest Changein the 21st century
A warning to policy makersor
a foretaste of things to come?
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Litany of factors forcing change in tropical forests
• Burning the unburnable• Logging synergizes fire• Roadbuilding• Fragmentation and edge effects• Rising sea surface temperature lifts the cloud bank• Deforestation alters local climate• Accelerating turnover• “Idiopathic” compositional change• Compositional instability of the “empty” forest
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Burning the unburnable
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Logging synergizes fire
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Roadbuilding synergizes logging
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Models of development in the Amazon. Optimistic (top) and nonoptimistic (bottom) scenarios, showing predicted forest degradation by the year 2020. (Black is deforested or heavily degraded, including savannas and other nonforested areas. Red is moderately degraded, yellow is lightly degraded, and green is pristine).
Laurance et al. 291 (5503):38-- Science
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Fragmentation and edge effects add to the risk of fire
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Rising sea surface temperature implicated in amphibian
extinctions
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Deforestation alters local climate
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Turnover of tropical forests has accelerated globally
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“Idiopathic” forest change
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“Empty” forests are compositionally unstable
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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
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Densities of seed dispersers and seed predators atCocha Cashu Biological Station and Boca Manu, Perú
EBCC BMDispersers, diurnal No./km2 No./km2
Primates, large (spider, howler) 13.2 0.0Primates, mid-sized (capuchins) 61.1 5.5Primates, small (titi, squirrel, tamarins) 43.6 26.3
Birds, large (guans, trumpeter) 22.7 2.3
Dispersers, nocturnal
Mid-sized (kinkajou, night monkey) 28.1 29.8
Seed predators, diurnal
Large (white-lipped, collared peccaries) 179.9 30.5Mid-sized (agouti, acouchi) 26.6 11.8Small (squirrels) 39.0 30.2
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EBCC vs BM: Number of Trees 10 cm dbh, by Dispersal Syndrome
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Bat Bird Primate Rodent Wind UnknownDispersal Syndrome
Num
ber
of T
rees
10
cm
dbh
EBCC: Number of Trees BM: Number of Trees
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EBCC vs BM: Number of Small Saplings per Hectare
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Bat Bird Primate Rodent Wind UnknownDispersal Mode
Num
ber
of S
aplin
gs
EBCC: Number of Small Saplings BM: Number of Small Saplings
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Winners DispersersAspidosperma megaphyllum WindFicus maxima BatsVirola calophylla Birds, primatesNeea RF#5005 BirdsNectandra longifolia BirdsCaraipa densiflora WindPourouma minor PrimatesDiospyros subrotata PrimatesUnonopsis mathewsii Birds?Inga acreana Primates
Losers DispersersMaytenus magnifolia PrimatesRheedia brasiliensis PrimatesZizyphus cinnamomum PrimatesMatesia cordata PrimatesLicania britteniana PrimatesIryanthera olacoides Bats?Calatola microcarpa PrimatesPouteria trilocularis PrimatesChrysophyllum venezeulelanaPrimatesTrichilia septentrionalis Birds?
Winners and Losers at Boca Manu
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2147
10131619222528313437404346495255586164
Log
BM/E
BCC
Log Values (Ranked)
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