antonio gonzalez president southwest voter registration education project 2914 n. main st
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Potential Growth and Impact of the Latino Vote in 2008 and Beyond Special Presentation to the New America Alliance 2007 Pension Fund Forum “Latino Investment Talent: Embracing The American Dream”. Antonio Gonzalez President Southwest Voter Registration Education Project 2914 N. Main St - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Potential Growth and Impact of the Latino Vote in 2008 and Beyond
Special Presentation to the New America Alliance2007 Pension Fund Forum
“Latino Investment Talent: Embracing The American Dream”
Antonio GonzalezPresident
Southwest Voter Registration Education Project2914 N. Main St
Los Angeles, CA 90031323-343-9299
Geographic Area NL WhiteNL White
%
Hispanic or Latino Origin
Latino %Combined Minority
Combined Minority %
TOTAL
United States 202,266,112 66.43% 45,018,772 14.79% 102,213,011 33.57% 304,479,123
.New Mexico 857,001 43.11% 870,007 43.76% 1,131,157 56.89% 1,988,158
.Texas 11,548,254 48.53% 8,438,918 35.46% 12,247,073 51.47% 23,795,327
.California 16,327,354 43.64% 13,261,796 35.45% 21,086,660 56.36% 37,414,014
.Arizona 3,751,781 59.80% 1,825,481 29.10% 2,521,603 40.20% 6,273,384
.Nevada 1,516,134 59.11% 620,385 24.19% 1,048,724 40.89% 2,564,858
.Florida 11,250,590 61.37% 3,689,256 20.12% 7,081,594 38.63% 18,332,184
.Colorado 3,475,201 71.70% 950,895 19.62% 1,371,417 28.30% 4,846,618
.New York 11,834,704 60.35% 3,214,581 16.39% 7,776,499 39.65% 19,611,203
.New Jersey 5,528,714 62.51% 1,388,767 15.70% 3,315,326 37.49% 8,844,040
.Illinois 8,484,786 65.35% 1,904,819 14.67% 4,497,905 34.65% 12,982,691
Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.
Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population Percent
Geographic Area NL WhiteNL
White %
Hispanic or Latino Origin
Latino %
Combined Minority
Combined Minority %
TOTAL
United States 202,266,112 66.43% 45,018,772 14.79%102,213,01
1 33.57% 304,479,123
.California 16,327,354 43.64% 13,261,796 35.45% 21,086,660 56.36% 37,414,014
.Texas 11,548,254 48.53% 8,438,918 35.46% 12,247,073 51.47% 23,795,327
.Florida 11,250,590 61.37% 3,689,256 20.12% 7,081,594 38.63% 18,332,184
.New York 11,834,704 60.35% 3,214,581 16.39% 7,776,499 39.65% 19,611,203
.Illinois 8,484,786 65.35% 1,904,819 14.67% 4,497,905 34.65% 12,982,691
.Arizona 3,751,781 59.80% 1,825,481 29.10% 2,521,603 40.20% 6,273,384
.New Jersey 5,528,714 62.51% 1,388,767 15.70% 3,315,326 37.49% 8,844,040
.Colorado 3,475,201 71.70% 950,895 19.62% 1,371,417 28.30% 4,846,618
.New Mexico 857,001 43.11% 870,007 43.76% 1,131,157 56.89% 1,988,158
.Georgia 5,598,308 59.07% 713,829 7.53% 3,878,965 40.93% 9,477,273
Table 5: Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007. (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race.
Top 10 Most Latino States in 2006 by Latino Population Total
2006 United States Latino Population by State
Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007.
2006 United States Latino Population Percent by State
Data Source: Table 5 - Estimates of the Population by Race Alone or in Combination(1) and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States and States: July 1, 2006 (SC-EST2006-05) Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Release Date: May 17, 2007.
Latino Voter Registration, National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008
Projection
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Latino VR Latino VR Change
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.
Latino Votes Cast,National Elections, 1972-2004 +2008
Projection
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Latino VC Latino VC Change
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.
Grupo de Cien(Group of One Hundred)
• Organize 100 Community, Business, and Business Leaders to Raise or Donate $100,000 Each Over 2007-2008– Enables SVREP to Directly Register and
Turnout 500,000 New Latino Voters in 15-20 Key States
– Enables SVREP to Catalyze Movement of Latino Leaders/Organizations to Raise Latino Registration and Turnout by 2.5 Million New Voters
SVREP Mobilization Efforts in 2007-2008
• Latina Vote Campaign– Vota una Latina, Vota una Familia– Educate, Register, and Mobilize 100,000 new Latina
Voters for the 2008 Presidential Election Cycle• Campaign for Family and Community (C4C)
– Faith-Based Effort That Will Register 100,000 Latino parishioners in 5 Competitive States: CO, FL, NV, NM, OR
– Focused on Immigration Reform and Climate-Related Themes
– Partners Include Catholic, Protestant, and Evangelical Churches and Organizations
SVREP Mobilization Efforts in 2007-2008, con’t
• Movimiento 10/12– Unite 300 Communities in 15 States Around Local Issues and
Elections– Register and Turnout 200,000 new Latino Voters During Spring,
Summer, and Fall of 2008 to Lay Foundation for 2010 and 2012 Elections
– Partners Include LULAC, LCLAA, Hispanic Federation, and NALACC
• YouthVote Campaign– Register 100,000 High School and College Students During
Spring and Fall of 2007 and 2008– Target 250-500 School Districts and 150 Colleges in 9 States:
AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, NJ, NM, TX, WA– Develop Corresponding Curriculum To Educate High School
Students on Importance of Voting
2004 United States Latino Registration Percent by State
Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.
2004 United States Latino Unregistered Citizen Voting Age Population by State
Data Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004 to 1972.
Latino Elected Officials by State: Largest Latino States – Gains Since 1996
State 1996 2007 Change
Texas 1,687 2,170 +28.6%
California 693 1,163 +67.8%
New Mexico 623 657 +5.5%
Arizona 298 354 +18.8%
Colorado 161 160 -0.6%
Florida 72 131 +81.9%
New Jersey 33 103 +212.1%
Illinois 41 97 +136.5%
New York 40 64 +60%
Other States 95 230 +142.1%
TOTAL 3,786 5,129 +37%
Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Elected Officials by State: Largest Latino States
Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Elected Officials by State: New Latino Gains Since 1996
Data Source: 2007 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials, NALEO Educational Fund
Latino Elected Officials by Level of Office in 2007
Federal: 26
Statewide Officials: 6
State Legislators: 238
County Officials: 512
Municipal Officials: 1,640
Judicial/Law Enforcement Officials: 685
School Board/Education Officials: 1,847
Special District Officials: 175
2008 U.S. Presidential Election Primary/Caucus Schedule
“Tsunami Tuesday” States – Primary/Caucus Elections Held on 2/5/08
State Electoral
Votes 2004 Latino Registration
2004 Latino Turnout
2004 Latino Share of Total Reg
2004 Latino Turnout %
2004 Latino Share of Total Turnout
Potential Unregistered Latino Voters in 2004
Alabama 9 2,000 2,000 0.1% 100.0% 0.1% 6,000
Alaska 3 13,000 10,000 3.9% 76.9% 3.4% 5,000
California 55
2,455,000 2,081,000 17.3% 84.8% 16.2% 1,978,000
Colorado 9 204,000 165,000 8.8% 80.9% 7.9% 157,000
Connecticut 7 64,000 56,000 3.8% 87.5% 3.7% 66,000
Delaware 3 13,000 12,000 3.1% 92.3% 3.1% 11,000
Georgia 15 36,000 26,000 0.9% 72.2% 0.8% 50,000
Illinois 21 343,000 294,000 5.3% 85.7% 5.2% 265,000
Minnesota 10 53,000 49,000 1.7% 92.5% 1.7% 20,000
Missouri 11 50,000 35,000 1.5% 70.0% 1.2% 18,000
New Jersey 15 331,000 277,000 8.1% 83.7% 7.5% 144,000
New Mexico 5 316,000 276,000 33.8% 87.3% 33.0% 170,000
New York 31 754,000 613,000 8.7% 81.3% 8.0% 592,000
North Dakota 3 4,000 2,000 1.0% 50.0% 0.6% 2,000
Oklahoma 7 29,000 25,000 1.6% 86.2% 1.6% 28,000
Tennessee 11 16,000 9,000 0.6% 56.3% 0.4% 32,000
Utah 5 28,000 27,000 2.5% 96.4% 2.6% 39,000
TOTAL 220
4,711,000 3,959,000 8.14% 84.0% 7.7% 3,583,000
State Electoral Votes 2004 Latino Registration
2004 Latino Turnout
2004 Latino Share of Total Reg
2004 Latino Turnout %
2004 Latino Share of Total Turnout
Potential Unregistered Latino Voters in 2004
New Hampshire 4 5,000 5,000 0.7% 100.0% 0.7% 4,000
Iowa 7 13,000 12,000 0.8% 92.3% 0.8% 11,000
Nevada 5 83,000 72,000 8.6% 86.7% 8.3% 68,000
Wyoming 3 11,000 10,000 4.2% 90.9% 4.0% 6,000
Florida 27 924,000 824,000 11.2% 89.2% 11.2% 520,000
South Carolina 8 13,000 13,000 0.6% 100.0% 0.7% 3,000
Maine 4 7,000 7,000 0.8% 100.0% 1.0% 2,000
TOTAL 58 1,056,000 943,000 7.1% 89.3% 7.1% 614,000
Early Primary States – Primary/Caucus Elections Held Before 2/5/08
2004 – 2008 Early Primary State Comparison
State Date Electoral Votes Latino Registration State DateElectoral Votes Latino Registration
New Hampshire 1/8/2008 4 5,000 District of Columbia 1/14/2004 3 10,000
Iowa 1/14/2008 7 13,000 Iowa 1/19/2004 7 13,000
Nevada 1/19/2008 5 83,000 New Hampshire 1/27/2004 4 5,000
Wyoming 1/22/2008 3 11,000 Arizona 2/3/2004 6 354,000
Florida 1/29/2008 27 924,000 Delaware 2/3/2004 3 13,000
South Carolina 1/29/2008 8 13,000 Missouri 2/3/2004 11 50,000
Maine 2/1/2008 4 7,000 New Mexico 2/3/2004 5 316,000
Alabama 2/5/2008 9 2,000 North Dakota 2/3/2004 3 4,000
Alaska 2/5/2008 3 13,000 Oklahoma 2/3/2004 7 29,000
California 2/5/2008 55 2,455,000 South Carolina 2/3/2004 8 13,000
Colorado 2/5/2008 9 204,000 TOTAL TOTAL 57 807,000
Connecticut 2/5/2008 7 64,000
Delaware 2/5/2008 3 13,000
Georgia 2/5/2008 15 36,000
Illinois 2/5/2008 21 343,000
Minnesota 2/5/2008 10 53,000
Missouri 2/5/2008 11 50,000
New Jersey 2/5/2008 15 331,000
New Mexico 2/5/2008 5 316,000
New York 2/5/2008 31 754,000
North Dakota 2/5/2008 3 4,000
Oklahoma 2/5/2008 7 29,000
Tennessee 2/5/2008 11 16,000
Utah 2/5/2008 5 28,000
TOTAL 278 5,767,000
2008 U.S. Presidential Election Battleground States
2008 U.S. Senate Races - CloseCongressional Quarterly Ratings
2004 Registration, Turnout, and Latino Potentialby Close Senate Race
State 2004 Total Reg
2004 Total Turnout
2004 Total Turnout %
2004 Latino Reg
2004 Latino Turnout
2004 Latino Share of Reg %
2004 Latino Turnout %
2004 Latino Share of Total Turnout
Potential Unregistered Latino Voters in 2004
Potential Unregistered Latino Voters in 2004 %
Colorado
2,307,000
2,097,000 90.90%
204,000
165,000 8.8% 80.9% 7.9% 157,000 43.49%
Louisiana
2,413,000
2,067,000 85.66%
19,000
16,000 0.8% 84.2% 0.8% 11,000 36.67%
Maine
824,000
736,000 89.32% 7,000
7,000 0.8% 100.0% 1.0% 2,000 22.22%
Minnesota
3,080,000
2,887,000 93.73%
53,000
49,000 1.7% 92.5% 1.7% 20,000 27.40%
New Hampshire
716,000
677,000 94.55%
5,000
5,000 0.7% 100.0% 0.7% 4,000 44.44%
North Carolina
4,292,000
3,639,000 84.79%
44,000
27,000 1.0% 61.4% 0.7% 65,000 59.63%
South Dakota
425,000
378,000 88.94%
4,000
4,000 0.9% 100.0% 1.1% 2,000 33.33%
Texas
9,681,000
7,950,000 82.12%
2,170,000
1,533,000 22.4% 70.6% 19.3% 1,518,000 41.16%
TOTAL 23,738,000 20,431,000 86.07% 2,506,000 1,806,000 10.56% 72.07% 8.40% 1,779,000 41.52%
2006 U.S. House Election ResultsParty by Margin of Victory - All
2006 U.S. House Election ResultsParty by Margin of Victory – Close Elections
Close Margins of Victory in 2006Less Than 5%
• Democrats1. Connecticut 2 - Joe Courtney - 0.0%2. Georgia 12 - John Barrow - 0.6%3. Pennsylvania 8 - Patrick J. Murphy - 0.6%4. Georgia 8 - Jim Marshall - 1.0%5. Florida 16 - Tim Mahoney - 1.8%6. Wisconsin 8 - Steve Kagen - 2.1%7. Kentucky 3 - John Yarmuth - 2.4%8. New York 19 - John Hall - 2.4%9. New Hampshire 1 - Carol Shea-Porter - 2.7%10. Iowa 2 - Dave Loebsack - 2.8%11. Kansas 2 - Nancy Boyda - 3.5%12. Florida 22 - Ron Klein - 3.8%13. Pennsylvania 4 - Jason Altmire - 3.8%14. Arizona 5 - Harry E. Mitchell - 4.0%15. Indiana 9 - Baron P. Hill - 4.5%
• Republicans1. Florida 13 - Vern Buchanan - 0.2%2. North Carolina 8 - Robin Hayes - 0.2%3. New Mexico 1 - Heather A. Wilson - 0.4%4. Ohio 15 - Deborah Pryce - 0.5%5. Wyoming AL - Barbara Cubin - 0.5%6. Ohio 2 - Jean Schmidt - 1.1%7. New Jersey 7 - Mike Ferguson - 1.4%8. Pennsylvania 6 - Jim Gerlach - 1.4%9. New York 25 - James T. Walsh - 1.6%10. Nevada 3 - Jon Porter - 1.9%11. Colorado 4 - Marilyn Musgrave - 2.5%12. Illinois 6 - Peter Roskam - 2.8%13. Virginia 2 - Thelma Drake - 2.8%14. New York 29 - John R. "Randy" Kuhl Jr. -
3.0%15. Washington 8 - Dave Reichert - 3.0%16. California 4 - John T. Doolittle - 3.1%17. Connecticut 4 - Christopher Shays - 3.4%18. Michigan 7 - Tim Walberg - 3.9%19. New York 26 - Thomas M. Reynolds - 4.0%20. Ohio 1 - Steve Chabot - 4.4%
2010 Gubernatorial Elections
2010 U.S. Senate Elections