ap 01 problem analysis 2009.ppt

Forbes Davidson problem.ppt 04/08/23 1

Action Planning exercise


Introduction

Scenario Roles: staff, participants Groups Time Schedule Time planning and management Output

Process to develop action plan

Monitor and evaluateMonitor and evaluate

Identify problems

Set and analyse objectivesSet and analyse objectives

Force -field analysis

Develop options

analyze impact/ prioritizeanalyze impact/ prioritize

choose/ decide

Plan action

communicate, get support

communicate, get support

implement

operate and maintainoperate and maintain

Ongoing development of support and revision


Problem analysisObjectives:

Clarify relation between problems and issues Introduce the relationship between problems and

objectives Identify key questions for analysis of problems Clarify relationships between problems

problems

problems


problem focusproblems

need to focus on clear issues


need for focused strategy

strategy

problem

01072


relationship between problems objectives and goals

problem/ objectivegoal

opportunity

concept developed from idea of Edward de Bono

The $50,000,000 problem definition

The $50,000,000 problem definition

Case of the Isle of WightCase of the Isle of Wight


Situation 1

Water shortage No local resources Decision to make

pipeline to mainland at cost of £30 million ($50 million)

Pipeline implemented Plenty of water Everyone happy

(except taxpayers?)

pipelinepipeline

forecast demandforecast demand

supplysupply

Time

Volume of water


Situation, part 2

Water company privatised

Experiments with water meters on the island

Peoples habits change dramatically, reducing the demand for water to well below the original point at which there was a problem

pipelinepipeline

Water metersWater meters

Actual demandActual

demand

Originally forecast demand

Originally forecast demand

supplysupply

Time

Volume of water


Lessons

Poor definition of the original problem can be very expensive!

Question: what would be a definition of the problem in this case that could have saved a lot of the $50,000,000?


Problem formulation

The formulation should be something like:

“There is a mismatch of supply and demand for water on the island, particularly at the peak tourist season”

This leaves open whether future action will concentrate on the supply side, the demand side or both. This quality is very important at problem definition stage - it is the foundation of all later action.


Relations between problemsThe problem tree

Core problemCore problem

EffectsEffects

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

EffectsEffectsEffectsEffects

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

Roots orcauses

EffectsEffectsEffectsEffectsEffectsEffectsEffectsEffects

Relations between problemsThe problem tree: example

mismatch betweensupply and demandmismatch betweensupply and demand

harm to tourist industry

harm to tourist industry

limited financelimited

finance

high usagehigh usagelimited supplylimited supply

limited groundwater

limited groundwater

periodic water shortage

periodic water shortage

Leakage in system

Leakage in system

No water meters

No water meters

wastefulhabits

wastefulhabits

limits on new housing

limits on new housing

unwillingnessof industry to

invest

unwillingnessof industry to

invest

unemploymentunemployment

healthproblemshealth

problems

attitudesattitudes

Effe

cts

Roo

tsC

ore

prob

lem

WORKSHOP ON PARTICIPATIVE URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND UPGRADING FOR ALICE, EASTERN CAPEMAY 7 - 13, 1995, CRAWFORD’S CABINS, CINTSA BEACH, EASTERN CAPE_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Hospital too small to meet needs

Over-loaded Hospital

High prevalence of TB & other communicable diseases

Dustroads devaluate properties

Dust roads damage cars

Storm water drains frequently blocked by sand after rain

Rubbish scattered in the town roads

+- 400 sites have pit latrine (Niselamanzi village)

+-350 families use bucket system (Hillcrest & Khyelitsha)

1/3 of housing lack electricity

Poor health

Poor sanitation (inadequate management of municipal waste)

Poor road mainte-nance

Present water infrastructure cannot cope with growing population/town

Overloading of existing infrastructure

Over-crow-ding

Dust from gravel roads is a health hazard

Lots of gravel roads

Poor health care

Insufficient capacity at municipality in Engineering&Townplanning

Lack of resources (finance) to improve infrastructure

Low institutional capacity/support from province

High population growth

Many low income householdsin Alice

High population growth

High birthrate In-migration

Lack of skilled personnel No grant

applications made

Finance application to RDP not being processed

Perception of relatively better chances of survival in Alice

Lack of facilities in neighbouring areas

Ignorance of financing mechanism

No money to hire skill personnel

PROBLEM ANALYSIS

D 1.2

Low income households cannot afford houses


Problem analysis: key questions

why is it a problem? whose problem? Where is the problem? When is it a problem? How long has it been a problem? Are you dealing with the core problem,

symptom or solution? What would happen if you do nothing?


Solutions

Problem analysis: conclusions Good problem analysis lays the

foundations for effective planning It is worth spending the time to do

problem analysis well as it leads to creative and innovative actions

Problem or opportunity analysis is not easy to do well -it requires changes in the way of thinking

Don’t shoot from the hip! Solutions will be developed later

PLANNING HEALTH WARNINGLack of good thinking can seriously injure your plans

ap 01 problem analysis 2009.ppt

Documents

forbes davidson problem

forbes davidson

gravel roads

core problem

problem analysis

water

problem

lack