AP CoGo – 4/28/15• Objective: SWBAT describe the political and social

institutions of the Nigerian state.

• Agenda:• Bell Ringer• Nigeria Pres. Quizzes• Review Notes• “Big Picture” Review

• Upcoming Dates:• Saturday – Practice AP Exam• Monday – Nigeria/Mexico Exam Due & Nigeria Guided

Reading• Tuesday – GB, Iran, China, Russia, Mexico Map Quiz Retake• Wednesday, May 6 – Nigeria Current Events Due

NIGERIA: REVIEW

A microcosm of everything wrong with the world today?

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power• First country we’re studying where the “national

question” is an issue: Should we even be a country?• Since independence in 1960, neither its leaders nor its

citizens agree on the basics of who should rule and how• Problems traditionally solved by military force and

authoritarianism

• Constitutionalism – eluding Nigeria so far• First constitution in 1914, 8 more since (latest in 1999)• Military and civilian leaders alike have never felt the

need to obey constitutions, and often write new ones upon taking power

• Without constitutionalism the “National Question” has been much harder to answer

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power• Legitimacy

• Newly independent (1960) • Highly fragmented along ethnic, regional, religious

lines • The sole stable national institution is the military

• Leads to legitimacy of military’s right to rule • Most leaders have been generals

• Extremely low legitimacy of government, overall• Contradicting political traditions

• Rule of Law from British colonial days• Personalized authority of military leaders since 1960

• Massive corruption, distrust of government

Corruption Perceptions Index 2010

Country CPI Score RANK (178 Countries)

China 39 80

Iran 28 133

Mexico 34 105

Nigeria 27 139

Russia 133 154

U.K. 74 17

Political History

• 3 Major Eras:• Pre-Colonial (800 - 1860) • Colonial (1860 – 1960) • Since Independence (1960 – Present)

Pre-Colonial Era

• Trends• Trade connections along Niger river with North Africa

and other civilizations • Early influence of Islam – elite tended to be

educated in Arabic and learned the sharia • Kinship-based politics – rule was at village level, and

were basically extended families • Complex political identities – some centralized

kingdoms mixed in with small village governance • Democratic impulses – rulers expected to seek

counsel and govern in the interests of the people

Colonial Era

• Trends• Authoritarian rule – British established chiefs to rule

on their behalf • Interventionist state – no “free market”… chiefs

expected to rule to meet economic goals set by the British

• Individualism – self-interest of capitalism was mixed with state-domination of the economy (uh oh…)

• Christianity – spread mainly to south and west (Islam entrenched in the north)

• Intensification of ethnic politics – Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba competed for “rewards” from British

Post-Colonialism

• Trends• Parliamentary replaced by Presidential government

in 1979 since majority was difficult to establish • Intensification of ethnic conflict – Hausa-Fulani

formed a majority coalition with Igbo, angering the Yoruba

• Military rule – frequent coups • Personalized rule and corruption • Federalism – attempt to pacify ethnic tension,

though military leaders did not allow much local power

• Economic dependence on oil – enriches those in power, who ignore other sectors of the economy

Post-Colonialism (cont.)• Elected leadership in 1960, overthrown in military coup in

1966

• 3 more coups by 1976, Olusegun Obasanjo takes power • Willfully steps down for democratically elected president in 1979

• 2 more coups by 1985, when Ibrahim Babangida takes power • Resigned under public pressure in 1993 when he promised to step

down for civilian leadership, then voided the election

• Sani Abacha (1993-1998) rules brutally, dies of a heart attack (maybe poisoned?), replaced by Vice President Abubakar

• Obasanjo elected for 2 terms (1999-2007)

• Umaru Yar’Adua elected in 2007

• Goodluck Jonathan elected in 2011

Political Culture

• Patron-Clientelism (prebendalism) - exchange of political and economic favors to build support of the leadership

• State attempts to control rich civil society (and mostly fails)• many independent associational groups still thriving

• Tension between modernity and tradition

• Religious conflict – centered on role of sharia in law and political authority

Geographic Influence

• Northwest – Hausa-Fulani, Muslim

• Northeast – Kanuri, Muslim

• Middle-Belt – smaller groups, mix of Muslim and Christian

• Southwest – Yoruba, mix of religions

• Southeast – Igbo, Catholic and Christian

• South – various minorities

Citizens, Society and the State• Necessary condition for democratization: citizens

need to have time to pay attention and participate in the political process

• Problems for Nigeria: • 60% live in poverty• Large gap between rich and poor (Gini = 50.6) • Health issues – AIDS epidemic (1 in 11 AIDS carriers

are Nigerian) • Literacy – 75.7% for men, 60.6% for women

• Why would these things lessen the democratization process for Nigeria?

Citizens, Society and the State

• Cleavages – one of the most fragmented societies in the world • Ethnicity – 250 to 400 distinct ethnic groups with different

languages and religions in many cases • Hausa-Fulani(29%; Muslim), Igbo (18%; Christian), and

Yoruba(21%; Christian/Muslim) tribes are largest, but can’t speak each other’s languages and have no contact generally

• Religion – 50% Muslim, 40% Christian, 10% various native religions • Disputes rooted in preferential treatment British gave to

Christians, and the role of sharia in Nigerian law

Citizens, Society and the State

• Cleavages (cont.)• Region – North (predominantly Muslim; less educated;

poorer) vs. South (predominantly Christian; more educated; wealthier)

• Urban/rural differences – political organizations, interest groups, media only operate in cities

• Social class – Educated elite are those with ties to the state, who often use the treasury to benefit themselves

Citizens, Society and the State• Public Opinion and Political Participation

• Patron-Clientelism (prebendalism) – local officials treat public offices as personal fiefdoms

• Civil Society – many associational interest groups free to operate, some strengthen Nigerian unity, others work to fragment society on ethnic/religious lines • Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) –

founded by Ken Saro-Wiwa to get oil benefits for Ogoni living in Niger Delta, hold oil companies to environmental standards • Saro-Wiwa was publicly executed in 1995

• NGOs also a part of civil society• Voting Behavior – no one knows how many Nigerians

participate because of the irregularities in their elections (estimates around 66%); 2015: 43.65%

Citizens, Society and the State• Public Opinion and Political Participation (cont.)

• Attitudes Toward Government – distrust of most officials, cynicism• Nigeria ranks 130 of 180 on the “Corruption Perception

Index” • Abacha’s heart attack was celebrated as the “coup from

heaven”• Protests, Participation, and Social Movements

• Increasing protest and organization/mobilization since 1999

• Often focused around international oil companies

Linkage Institutions

• Political Parties• Regionally based• Extreme factionalization resulted in development of so

many parties, there is no coherent party system • Parties appear and disappear based on leaders• Currently:

• People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – Obasanjo and Yar’Adua’s party of power, “won” in most parts of the country with Southern and Northern candidates

• All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) – General Muhammad Buhari’s party

• Action Congress (AC) – merger of many parties, led by Atiku Abubakar (who was disqualified from running in 2007, then reinstated by the Supreme Court days before the election)

• All Progressives Congress – 2013 three opposition parties merged to challenge PDP in 2015• Buhari’s new party (won election)

Linkage Institutions

• Political Parties (cont.)• These parties are becoming less regional, and

increasingly run a “ticket” with candidates of different regions, campaigning across all of Nigeria

• Why??• 1999 Constitutional requirement

• Winning presidential candidate must receive 25% of votes cast in at least 2/3 of all states

• Attempt to prevent regional candidates from winning the presidency and unite Nigeria

Linkage Institutions

• Elections• Independent National Election Commission (INEC)

requires parties to qualify for national elections with at least 5% of votes in 2/3 of states

• Legislative • 109 Senators elected by popular vote (3 per state, 1

from Abuja) • 360 House of Representatives elected in SMD plurality

elections • Presidential

• 2 ballot majority system (with the regional requirement) • All elections usually involve fraud and irregularities

Linkage Institutions

• Interest Groups • Pretty healthy, though influence is restricted by

corruption and pre-bendalism • Business Interests – historically collaborated with

military, now push for economic reforms • Some based on religion:

• Christian Association of Nigeria; Several Muslim organizations

• Some based on professions of educated elite: • Legal professions, physicians, educators

• Labor Unions• Were independent and powerful before military oppression

of 1980’s• Have regained power in recent years• Nigeria Labor Congress – organized successful general strike

in 2007 against elimination of gas subsidies

Linkage Institutions• Media

• Well developed, independent press• Reflects ethnic interests/issues• TV/ Newspapers more common in urban

areas• Parastatals operate over 100 stations• Privately owned TV stations/cable/satellite

services• Most outspoken newspapers in South

• Radio reaches all of Nigeria – all 36 states have their own – compete with private broadcasters

• Cellphone service has overtaken landline• 95 million cell phones/700,000 wired phones

• 2009 – 44 million internet users but only 1200 internet hosts

State Institutions

• Federalism• 36 states• Doesn’t really work… dependent on central

government

• Executive – President and Cabinet • Directly elected • May appoint officials to all parts of national

government without approval of legislature (leads to patrimonialism)

State Institutions

• Bureaucracy – assumed to be bloated, corrupt, and inefficient • Para-Statals – privately owned, but headed by

government appointees (part of the patron-client network) • Provide public utilities or major industries

• Nigerian Electric Power Administration (NEPA) – called “Never Expect Power Again” by Nigerians

• Changed name to Power Holding Company (PHC) – called “Please Hold Candle” by Nigerians

• State corporatism – para-statals serve to give the appearance of public/private cooperation, while really giving the state control

State Institutions

• Legislature – parliamentary until 1979, now Bicameral National Assembly • Senators and Representatives serve 4 year terms,

elected the week before the president • Senate

• 109 Senators, 3 per state, 1 from Abuja • Very diverse given the different regions that are equally

represented• House of Representatives

• 360 members elected by SMD plurality • Very little power, but occasionally acts as a check on

president (like when Obasanjo wanted a 3rd term)

State Institutions• Judiciary

• Federal and state courts with an appeals process up to the Supreme Court

• Strong and autonomous after independence, but since ravaged by military rule

• Most judges today are not well versed in law, easily manipulated by the government

• Theoretically in charge of judicial review, not practically

• Law is complicated by the sharia which operates in 12 northern states, controversially

State Institutions

• Military – Guess what? It’s strong. • Military made distinctions between “military in

government” and “military in barracks” after early coups

• “Military in government” presidents (like Babangida) had to restrain influence of traditional military • Appointed senior military to cabinet positions to make

them part of his patronage network • The best place for young Nigerians to improve their

lives, demonstrate their talents • Controversial, but it is the one national institution

with the capability to restore order

Public Policy Process• Top-down policy-making process.

• Power concentrated in hands of the president & cabinet ministers through channels established by patron-clientelism

• Loyalty Pyramid – senior officials supported by broader base of loyal junior officials

• State control of resources means that those in the pyramid get the spoils, they alone have access to wealth and influence. Loyal clients of patronage structured pyramids includes: • “Kaduna Mafia”, “Babangida’s Boys”, and “Abacha’s Boys”

• Military controls pyramids, pyramids supported by “guns” (Force); therefore, protesting system can be dangerous

• Top-down, self-interested rule established by British during colonial era when the British relied on native chiefs to ensure Nigerian trade and resources benefited Great Britain

Economic Issues• Oil

• Oil wealth during the 1970s gave Nigeria international leverage

• OPEC member• Conflicts in Middle East

have made Nigeria more important as a trade partner for other countries since 1970s

• Lack of economic diversification hurts Nigeria when oil prices drop

• DEBT – as a result of drop in oil prices and lack of revenue surplus

• Structural Adjustment• 1980s, Nigeria seeks

assistance from international organizations to deal with debt crisis

• World Bank & IMF involvement• Restructure & diversification

of Nigerian economy• Privatize parastatals• Cut government spending

• “Shock Treatment” not very successful • Parastatals still under

government control• Debt repayment had to be

restructured

Other Issues• Federalism

• It is the goal of Nigeria to seek a federal character for the nation and recognizes people of all ethnicities, religions, and regions

• There have been issues with the size of government as positions are often created just to ensure equal representation within the bureaucracy• Federalism has greater support in the south than in the north

• The north generally doesn’t have as many resources to share

• Democratization• Slowly becoming more democratic:

• Some checks and balances between government branches have appeared

• Some independent decisions in the courts• The use of some judicial review• Revival of civil society• Independent media• Peaceful succession of power • Improving Freedom House scores

• Nigeria is now listed as partly free on this scale or a 4 on the Freedom House scale (1-7)

Other Issues

• Boko Haram• http://

www.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/02/26/orig-elbagir-boko-haram-explainer.cnn

• If Boko Haram controls part of the country, is Nigeria becoming a failed state?

• How could this impact democratization and the “national question”?